Sitemap - 2024 - Neil’s Substack

When Might Ovechkin Catch Gretzky Now?

Why Lamar Jackson’s MVP Case Has Been Swallowed Up by Narrative

📝 The Week That Was (December 23-27, 2024)

NBA Teams Might Genuinely Be Taking Too Many 3-Pointers Now

🎁Let’s Have a Chill Holiday Hangout Opening Trading Cards and Remembering Some Guys!🎄

Rickey Henderson Brought Baseball’s Past Into the Future

📝 The Week That Was (December 16-20, 2024)

When Did “The Nerds” Start Ruining Each Sport?

It's the Chiefs, Bills, Eagles, Lions (and Maybe Vikings) Versus the Field

How Red Bull (Sort Of) Lost Its Grip on F1

Hockey Bytes: Lightning Strikes Back

📝 The Week That Was (December 9-13, 2024)

Basketball Bytes: Who's Stepping Up In The NBA Cup?

UNC Football Has Untapped Potential. Can Bill Belichick Help Them Achieve It?

Who Has the Easiest — And Hardest — Paths in the College Football Playoff?

Juan Soto Tipped the Financial Scales of New York Baseball — But In An Era When That May Matter Less Than Ever

Who’s Got the Best Shot to Win the College Football Playoff?

📝 The Week That Was (December 2-6, 2024)

Hockey Bytes: This Time Feels Different for the Maple Leafs — Will It Last? 🍁

Sterling Sharpe Belongs in Canton

The Analytics One... Feat. Neil Paine

Is UConn Already In Trouble?

The 12-Team College Football Playoff Could Hardly Have Asked for a Better Debut Season

📝 The Week That Was (November 25-29, 2024)

Football Bytes: Saquon Barkley is Defying RB Gravity

Hockey Bytes: Sam Reinhart and the Career Year That Wasn’t

Basketball Bytes: The Rockets' Ascent Continues

📝 The Week That Was (November 18-22, 2024)

The Sixers’ Season From Hell Continues Unabated

Jim Montgomery’s Bruins: The Full NHL Coaching Experience in 2+ Seasons

Football Bytes: The Detroit Lions Are on the Hunt for History

Hockey Bytes: Why Are the Red Wings, Sabres and Senators Still Stuck in Playoff Purgatory?

Basketball Bytes: The NBA Players Who Are — And Aren’t — Their Usual Selves This Year

📝 The Week That Was (November 11-15, 2024)

The College Football Teams Who Are Overachieving — Or Falling Short — In 2024

Hockey Bytes: Washington Wake-Up

Football Bytes: Can the Chiefs Keep Winning Ugly?

Basketball Bytes: The Thunder Roll, Despite An Offensive Cold Front

Joey Logano Won the Championship Format in Front of Him

🏁 2024 NASCAR Cup Series Driver Rankings 🚗

📝 The Week That Was (November 4-8, 2024)

Hockey Bytes: The Canes' Time Is Now

2024 NASCAR Cup Series Playoff Odds: Racing to the Finish Line

Will College Football’s Logjam Sort Itself Out?

Basketball Bytes: Who’s Getting the Ball More (or Less) This Year?

📝 The Week That Was (Oct. 28-Nov. 1, 2024)

The Modern L.A. Dodgers Are Officially No Longer Playoff Underachievers

Baseball Bytes: All Hail The Dodgers

⚾ 2024 MLB Elo Power Ratings, Playoff Odds & Wins Above Replacement (WAR) rankings 📈

2024 NASCAR Cup Series Playoff Odds: Reddick Clutch; Larson On The Brink

Hockey Bytes: Another Winnipeg Mirage?

Baseball Bytes: The Yankees’ Path Back

📝 The Week That Was (October 21-25, 2024)

Football Bytes: When the Franchise QB Goes Wrong

2024 NASCAR Cup Series Playoff Odds: Joey Logano Drops a Playoff Bomb 💣

Baseball Bytes: Breaking Down the Yankees-Dodgers World Series

What's Next After the NBA’s Era of Parity?

🏀 2024 WNBA Elo Team Power Rankings and Player Rankings 📈

A Dodgers-Yankees World Series Doesn't Prove Money Buys Championships

📝 The Week That Was (October 14-18, 2024)

2024 NASCAR Cup Series Playoff Odds: Larson and the Lot

Baseball Bytes: Bronx Bombshell

Football Bytes: The Cowboys Get Mauled by Lions

Baseball Bytes: What I’ve Got My Eye On in the League Championship Series

📝 The Week That Was (October 7-11, 2024)

QB U: Are Quarterbacks Losing Their Heisman Trophy Grip?

The Liberty Look Like New York’s Next Champ — And the Yankees or Mets Could Be Next

Football Bytes: The 49ers *Are* Fine, but Will They *Be* Fine?

Baseball Bytes: On the Razor’s Edge

Who’s Ready to Dominate the NHL in 2024-25?

📝 The Week That Was (September 30-October 4, 2024)

Baseball Bytes: Wild Card Wrap-up, Division Series Duels

2024 NASCAR Cup Series Playoff Odds: Byron and Blaney Up, Reddick and Larson Down

Football Bytes: Is Jayden Daniels Putting Together the Best Modern Rookie QB Season?

What to Watch For as the 2024 MLB Playoffs Get Underway

Baseball Bytes: We Couldn’t Have Done It Without You Guys

📝 The Week That Was (September 23-27, 2024)

QB U: When Alabama and Georgia Became Quarterback Factories

It’s (Still) Kyle Larson’s Cup Series Championship to Lose

Which World Series Archetype Fits Your Favorite Playoff Team?

Football Bytes: The Must-Win Games for Faltering Playoff Hopefuls

Baseball Bytes: Shohei Ohtani’s GOAT Game For 50-50

📝 The Week That Was (September 16-20, 2024)

QB U: Arch Manning Has Entered the Chat

New WNBA Records Still Need Context

Denny Hamlin’s First Cup Series Championship Rides on a Coin Flip

Which Teams’ Quarterbacks Do Better Elsewhere?

Baseball Bytes: How Juan Soto Adapted His Swing to Yankee Stadium

📝 The Week That Was (September 9-13, 2024)

QB U: When the Stars Aligned for This Week’s Top Matchups

What Could Break MLB Contenders' World Series Hopes?

Football Bytes: Let’s Overreact to Week 1 NFL QBs! (From Previous Seasons, That Is)

NFL Passing Was Down in Week 1. What Does That Mean for the Rest of the Season?

Baseball Bytes: How Francisco Lindor Went From Overpaid Bust to MVP Contender

📝 The Week That Was (September 2-6, 2024)

QB U: Remembering Some Guys from Texas, Michigan and the Rest of the Week’s Top Matchups

The Kansas City Chiefs Are Chasing a 3-Peat — Here's How Other Teams Tried (And Mostly Failed) Before Them

Time to Fire up the Cowboys’ Eternal Hype Machine Again

Baseball Bytes: Seriously, How Are the White Sox This Bad?

📝 The Week That Was (August 26-30, 2024)

QB U: Top 5 Quarterback Matchups of Week 1 (Based on 2023 Stats)

Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani Are MLB’s Big-Market Superstar Dream Come True

Will Passing Still Be King in 2024?

Of Course the Aaron Rodgers Doubters Have Emerged

Baseball Bytes: Scott Servais, Jerry Dipoto and the Foibles of 54 Percent

📝 The Week That Was (August 19-23, 2024)

What History Says About the Maple Leafs’ Tavares-Matthews Captaincy Swap

The Golden Age of Running Backs Ruined the Running Back

Is MLB's Superteam Era Facing Its Kryptonite?

Baseball Bytes: Aaron Judge's Impossible Progress

📝 The Week That Was (August 12-16, 2024)

Back for More: The Best Returning QBs in College Football for 2024

What Might the End of “Chargering” Look like with Jim Harbaugh?

Ex-Pac-12 Teams Will Face Some of The Worst Travel Distances in Power-Conference History

Caitlin Clark Is Poised for a Huge Stretch Run

It’s Time for NASCAR to Scrap the Win-and-in Playoff System

Baseball Bytes: We Really Did Not Know This Year’s Top Rookies

📝 The Week That Was (August 5-9, 2024)

Will a 12-Team Format Finally Free Penn State from Playoff Purgatory?

Tight End University's Next Valedictorian 🎓

Who Are College Football’s Unexpected New ‘QB Factories’?

Baseball Bytes: Can We Trust the Cleveland Guardians as World Series Contenders?

Who's Pulling Ahead — or Falling Behind — in the Olympic Medal Race?

📝 The Week That Was (Jul. 29-Aug. 2, 2024)

On Steve Kerr’s Aging Team USA, Experience Trumps Ability

Where Does 2024 Rank among the Pro Football Hall of Fame’s Greatest Defensive Classes Ever?

2024 MLB Trade Deadline Debrief

Let’s Track Who’s Adding (And Subtracting) the Most at the 2024 MLB Trade Deadline

The Rays Are Trading Away Everything That Isn’t Nailed Down

The Best Players on the Market at the 2024 MLB Trade Deadline — And Who Needs to Deal for Them

📝 The Week That Was (July 22-26, 2024)

Is It Getting Harder for NBA Superteams to Win?

Who Are the 2024 Summer Olympics’ Biggest Favorites?

Team Timelines: How the 2004 Red Sox Were Built to End the Curse of the Bambino

Who Should Buy — And Sell — At the 2024 MLB Trade Deadline?

Are Second Basemen Finally Getting Their Due? What Drafting a 2B No. 1 Says About the Position’s Changing Value

📝 The Week That Was (July 15-19, 2024)

🔥 Burning Questions 🔥 for the Second Half of the 2024 MLB Season

Will College Football 25 Save the Sports Video Game?

The Phillies Are in an Exclusive Club of All-Star-Studded Teams

Winning the Home Run Derby Is about Power Swings — And, Oddly, Plate Discipline

📝 The Week That Was (July 8-12, 2024)

Hey Now, You’re an All-Star. You Probably Earned It in the First Half.

It Looks Like Rumors of the Astros’ Demise Were Greatly Exaggerated

Nobody Runs Hot and Cold like the Yankees

The 2011 Finals Sabotaged LeBron’s GOAT Case before It Had a Chance

📝 The Week That Was (July 1-5, 2024)

The Strange Case of Ketel Marte’s Fluctuating MVP-Caliber Form

The Padres Didn’t Get Better without Juan Soto and Blake Snell. But They Did Get Luckier.

Was Banning the Shift Ever Going to Help Batting Averages?

Paul George Makes the Sixers Serious NBA Title Contenders, If History Is a Guide

📝 The Week That Was (June 24-28, 2024)

Which NBA Teams Get the Most Bang for Their Free-Agency Buck?

12 Quick Takes: Big NBA Trades, the Draft & Free Agency

Why Are the Cubs So Very Mediocre?

Do We Know a Weak NBA Draft When We See It?

🏀 2023-24 NBA Estimated RAPTOR Player Ratings and Wins Above Replacement 🦖

The Florida Panthers Got Tough Enough to Win the Cup

🏒 2023-24 NHL Team Elo Power Rankings & Goals Above Replacement Player Ratings 📉

Can the Oilers End Canada’s Stanley Cup Losing Streak in Game 7s?

📝 The Week That Was (June 17-21, 2024)

Why Don’t the Advanced Metrics Like Caitlin Clark (Yet)?

The Dodgers Have Been MLB’s Most Injured Team... And It’s Going to Get Even Worse.

Willie Mays Was Baseball’s Greatest All-Around Star

13 Takeaways from the NBA Finals

The Year Of The Celtics

🏀 2023-24 NBA Elo Power Rankings 📈

🏀 2023-24 NBA Forecast 📈

Neither Championship Sweep Happened. (BOY, Did They Ever Not Happen.)

📝 The Week That Was (June 10-14, 2024)

The NBA (and NHL) Finals Could Be a Championship Sweep. We Don’t See Those Much Anymore.

Jerry West Was Basketball’s Greatest Lifer

Is Julio Rodríguez Destined to Be a Slow Starter Forever?

We Don’t Know Which NFL Teams Have Hard (Or Easy) Schedules

The NBA Finalists Who Went Down 0-2 on the Road... And Won Anyway

Seven Takes: Are the NBA Finals Over?

📝 The Week That Was (June 3-7, 2024)

15 Fresh Takes: The NBA Finals ... Going Forward

Lakers Success for Dan Hurley Wouldn’t Be Unprecedented

In Case of Emergency, Break the Glass for Adam Duvall

The Best Pitchers of 2024 Are Historically Weird

How Often Does the Best Player in the Stanley Cup Finals Win It?

The Florida Panthers Are Trying to Be the Rarest Type of Repeat Stanley Cup Finalist

📝 The Week That Was (May 27-31, 2024)

NBA Finals Predictions!

The Western Conference Was Stacked. Dallas Won Anyway.

The Yankees Have Baseball’s Perfect Stars-and-(No)-Scrubs Roster

🏒 2024 PWHL Power Rankings and Game Predictions ❄️

It’s Way Past Time for these Celtics to Win a Title

Nick Castellanos Is Having an All-Time “Bad Player on a Great Team” Season

📝 The Week That Was (May 20-24, 2024)

Kyle Hendricks’ Brutal Decline Is the Absolute End of the 2016 Cubs

Would Connor McDavid vs. the Rangers Guarantee Big Interest in the Stanley Cup?

The Mets Are Stuck in Baseball Hell (Again)

The Marlins, the Mets and Baseball’s Top Revolving-Door Teams

Nobody Has the Knicks’ Number Like the Pacers

The Week That Was (May 13-17, 2024)

Sergei Bobrovsky and the Panthers Are Confusing Us All over Again

Do the Toronto Blue Jays Have Any Potential Left?

Bat Speed Isn’t Everything

A.J. Smith's Chargers Did Everything but Win

The Brewers Turned a Weak Talent Pipeline into a Top Team. The Marlins Did the Exact Opposite.

The Week That Was (May 6-10, 2024)

What We’ve Learned in the First Third of the 2024 NASCAR Season

The Dodgers Don’t Need to Be This Dominant Yet

Are the Vancouver Canucks Underrated?

Bobby Witt Jr. Is Playing like the New George Brett

This Looks Like the NHL’s Most Stacked “Elite Eight” Ever

The Week That Was (April 29-May 3, 2024)

This Colorado Avalanche Offense Is Historically Scary

Mike Trout and the Fragile Pursuit of GOATdom

What Do We Make of the 2024 Red Sox? (What Do We EVER Make of the Red Sox?)

Elly De La Cruz Gave Us a Glimpse Last Season. Now We’re Getting the Full Picture.

The Cleveland Guardians Are So Back

The Week That Was (April 22-26, 2024)

Michael Penix Jr. Is Cursed! (Maybe.)

NFL Teams Still Can't Beat the Draft

The L.A. Kings’ Potential Misery Has Some Company — But Not Much

This Texas-Sized Rookie Rivalry Isn’t Much of One... Yet

Are the Astros in Big Trouble?

The Week That Was (April 15-19, 2024)

The White Sox Fumbled Away Their Future in Historic Fashion

What Was the Arizona Coyotes’ Legacy?

Anthony Volpe’s Arrival as a Star Could Mean Big Things for the Yankees

The Stanley Cup Might Depend on Which Underperforming Goalie Steps Up

The Weeks That Were (Apr. 1-12, 2024)

What Do We Do When a Great Athlete Is a Bad Person?

MLB's Pitching Elbow Injuries Are on the Rise — And More Costly than Ever

Where Does Bronny James Rank among the NBA Draft's Worst One-and-Done Players?

UConn Built Arguably the Most Dominant Men’s Champ in Modern History. Then They Did It Again.

Is UConn-Purdue the Best NCAA Men’s Final Ever? (*On Paper)

Neil’s Substack Will Be Back after a Short Break

Caitlin Clark and Iowa Met Every Challenge

Where Does UConn’s Dominance Rank on the Road to the Final Four?

The Week That Was (Mar. 25-29, 2024)

The Futility of Trout

Paige Bueckers’ Rise Was Interrupted. Now She’s Ascending Again.

Jordan Montgomery to the Diamondbacks caps off MLB’s Best Offseason

What Out Of The Park Baseball 25 Thinks About The '24 Season

Where to Find My Stats, Rankings, Content, Models and Data 📈 👀

2024 MLB Composite Preseason Projections

This Is One of the Best — And the Most Experienced — Men’s Sweet 16’s in Recent History

The Week That Was (Mar. 18-22, 2024)

The Philadelphia Flyers Will Probably Be a Playoff Team. They Don’t Look like One.

My freelance story archive

Does It Matter That the Oilers and Stars Don’t Beat Good Teams?

Is Chase Elliott Finally Ready to Win Again?

The NBA’s Midseason Scoring Crackdown Also Made Games Less Predictable

Which NCAA Men’s Tournament Teams Are Better (Or Worse) Overall Picks than Their Seed Indicates?

Which NCAA Men’s Tournament Teams Are Better First-Round Picks than Their Seed Indicates?

The Week That Was (Mar. 11-15, 2024)

The Stunning Rise of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

These Teams Could Be Your Men's March Madness Sleepers

Mike Modano’s Monumental Legacy

Mookie Betts Is Attempting an Unprecedented Move

Where Sixers-Knicks Ranks Among Recent NBA ”Unders”

These Are the Coaches to Avoid in the Men’s NCAA Tournament

The Week That Was (Mar. 4-8, 2024)

Does the NHL Trade Deadline Matter?

Predictions! 13 Writers on a Boston vs. Denver NBA Finals

The Vegas Golden Knights Are Gearing up to Save Their Repeat Bid

Are the San Francisco Giants Trying to Win or Not?

The 2023-24 Boston Celtics Are One of the Greatest Regular-Season Teams in NBA History

A Visual Guide to the 2024 NHL Trade Deadline

When Will Caitlin Clark Break The All-Time Scoring Record?

The Week That Was (Feb. 26-Mar. 1, 2024)

How Good Will Caitlin Clark Be In the WNBA Right Away?

Who Is the NBA’s Most Underrated Player (And Is It Herb Jones)?

The 10 Best Canadian NHL Teams of the Stanley Cup Drought Era

Anthony Kim Is Back. How Good Could He Have Been?

Does Cody Bellinger’s Return Save the Cubs’ 2024 Potential?

This NASCAR podcast is careening dangerously close to being a golf podcast

Kyle Busch Buschwhacks Again!

The Week That Was (Feb. 19-23, 2024)

Doc Rivers, James Harden and the Problem with Pile-On Predictions

The Warriors Specialize in Perplexing the Predictors

Auston Matthews Is Having One of the NHL’s Greatest Goal-Scoring Seasons

NASCAR’s Best Driver Just Won the Daytona 500. That Doesn’t Usually Happen.

The NBA All-Star Game’s Descent into Sports Uncanny Valley Continues

How the Florida Panthers Made It to the Top of the NHL

Who needs a Super Bowl at the end of the season? That's for losers.

The Week That Was (Feb. 12-16, 2024)

14 Takes: The NBA's Spectacular Rookie Class

Why Isn’t Jayson Tatum Getting More MVP Buzz?

Where Do the 2023-24 Chiefs Rank among the Toughest Super Bowl Paths?

🏁 2024 NASCAR Cup Series Preview 🚗

The Finder pod: Analytics storyteller Neil Paine

An Early Look at 2024 MLB Predictions

📈2023 NFL Elo Ratings, Projections and Expected Points Added Rankings🏈

Patrick Mahomes Is Literally Impossible to Stop When You Need to Stop Him

There’s No Limit to the Bets You Can Make on Patrick Mahomes

The Week That Was (Feb. 5-9, 2024)

NBA Offenses Got More Efficient by Giving Fewer Shots to the Most Efficient Players. (I’ll Explain.)

14 Quick Takes on the NBA Trade Deadline

Who Added (Or Subtracted) the Most at the NBA Trade Deadline?

Brock Purdy Is Only *Sort Of* a "System Quarterback"

My 🔥 Burning Questions 🔥 for the Second Half of the NHL Season

🏈Bucky’s Bowls🦜 Returns: My Pet Parrot Picks the Super Bowl Winner

Expecting Patrick Mahomes’ Career to Match Tom Brady’s Is Unrealistic

How the Chiefs and Niners Made It (Back) to the Super Bowl

We're So Back

The Week That Was (Jan. 29-Feb. 2, 2024)

A Brief History of Ferrari Signing Former F1 World Champions (Like Lewis Hamilton)

Is the NBA’s 65-Game Awards Threshold Unreasonable?

Back on the ‘Stack

Can the L.A. Kings Pull Out of Their Tailspin?

Belichick’s Statistical Secret Sauce: Can It Ever Be Replicated?

Chiefs-Niners Is One of the Super Bowl's Weirdest Rematches

📈2023-24 NFL Playoff Predictor🏈

Luka and Embiid’s 70-Point Games Are Part of a High-Scoring NBA Trend

Is the Big Three of Men’s Tennis Losing Its Grip for Good?

Why the Utah Jazz Are in One of the NBA’s Weirdest — But Maybe Also Best — Spots

Sidney Crosby Is Turning Back the Clock. Unfortunately, the Pittsburgh Penguins Are Not.

Adrian Griffin Fired: How Historically Unusual Was the Bucks’ Move?

Is Joel Embiid the Greatest Scorer in NBA History?

Five Times Lebron James Did (Or Didn’t) Turn Around a .500 Team at Midseason

Pascal Siakam’s Pacers Trade Is a Farewell to the 2019 Champion Raptors

Move Over, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. Derrick White Might Be the Celtics’ Most Essential Player.

How the "Caitlin Clark Effect" Has Evolved over Time

PWHL Power Rankings: How We’re Predicting Results for the Brand New League

Nick Saban Just Retired. Who’s Alabama’s Most Saban-Like Choice to Succeed Him?

Kawhi Leonard Isn’t Managing the Load — He’s Shouldering It

In a Historically Offensive NBA Season, How Much Should Defense Factor into the MVP Decision?

NFL Playoffs Predictor: Can Anyone Stop the Ravens and 49ers?

How Much Did The Highest-Paid Female Athletes Make Just From Playing in 2023?

The Oklahoma City Thunder Are Rolling — But Are They Playoff-Ready?

Simple Estimated RAPTOR Projections and Aging Curves