The Warriors Specialize in Perplexing the Predictors
Will Golden State keep doing it in the second half of this season?
When the stretch run of the NBA season finally gets underway tonight, all eyes will be on a national-TV battle between two teams — the Golden State Warriors and Los Angeles Lakers — that are collectively just 5 games over .500 this season, and who both have playoff odds below 46%. Such is the power of the “sleeping giant” in the NBA, whether it be one led by Steph Curry or LeBron James: It never feels right to count them out.
The Lakers are a whole other story for another day in that regard.1 But today I want to focus on the Warriors, who have already gone through what feels like multiple seasons’ worth of ups and downs this year. Here’s a look at their day-by-day Elo power ratings throughout the 2023-24 season:
Things looked promising enough for the Warriors early on — they achieved what is still their season-high Elo on Nov. 3, after starting the season 5-1. Not long after, though, Draymond Green was suspended 5 games for grabbing Rudy Gobert in a headlock, then was suspended again in December for hitting Jusuf Nurkić in the face. The Warriors were already in a rough stretch of 4 wins in 12 games when the second incident happened; they were also dealing with PG Chris Paul (one of the team’s few bright spots to that point) going in and out of the lineup. A few weeks later, CP3 would break his hand, an injury from which he still hasn’t returned.
Anyone who didn’t know the Warriors might have suspected they were cooked — not just for 2023-24, but for the entire Curry Era and beyond. Their playoff odds were dipping, and one of the league’s oldest rosters was running out of reasons for a turnaround. Andrew Wiggins wasn’t his usual self; neither were 33-year-olds Green and Klay Thompson. Curry remained brilliant, particularly on offense, but he could only do so much to keep the team afloat. (Green getting himself suspended every few weeks wasn’t helping, either.)
But Golden State did manage to hang within striking distance of .500 while continuing to sort things out. Green returned in the first week of January, making his usual difference as a passer, rebounder and defender — he actually has an average plus/minus of +8.6 per game since coming back, compared with -3.1 before his second suspension. Now Wiggins is having his best sustained stretch of play all season. Jonathan Kuminga is one of the NBA’s most improved players. Rookie Brandin Podziemski has been a revelation. Curry looks to be in peak form. Thompson even seemed to respond to his recent benching with 35 points in relief.
And the team is winning. After a tough double-OT loss to the Lakers on Jan. 27, the Warriors have won 8 of their past 10 games and are currently up to No. 9 in the Elo ratings. Heading into the All-Star break, no team had added more to its rating over the previous 15 days than Golden State. The decision not to part with Wiggins (or any other key pieces) as a trade deadline seller is looking smarter than it did a few weeks ago.
Is this surprising? Maybe a little bit. But should it be?
Again, it’s hard to give up on this Warriors team. Every time you think their dynasty is officially dead, it springs back to life. Take it from someone who thought they were cooked after Kevin Durant left and Thompson and Curry suffered long-term injuries. Someone who thought they didn’t have the juice to beat the Celtics in the 2022 Finals. This team’s extended dynasty broke the rules of how NBA franchises are supposed to rise and fall as contenders — proving that, as long as they have Curry, Green and Thompson providing versions of what they do best, you doubt the Warriors at your own peril.
Still, the forecasts do not look particularly great. Even after the recent winning streak, Golden State’s record is just 27-26. They sit in the West’s very last play-in slot, a game and a half behind even the up-and-down Lakers. The composite version of my model gives them just a 40% chance to make the playoffs (meaning to secure one of the West’s eight postseason spots coming out of the play-in games). While their play-in odds are higher — north of 80% — and I wouldn’t want to face Curry in an elimination game, we don’t really know what the future holds for these Warriors come April, May or June.
When the Warriors stood pat as sellers at the deadline — and reportedly even made a run at adding James, which is still difficult to wrap one’s mind around — I was thinking of writing that the team’s worst enemy right now was its championship run in 2021-22. When they unexpectedly won that title, it completely changed how the Warriors viewed every future decision: They could never in good conscience rebuild, sell, or even retool, as long as there was a chance (however slim) to extend the dynasty even further.
But that belief, in the face of the naysayers, was also embedded deep within the original DNA of the Warriors dynasty from the start. This team was never supposed to eventually vault its way to GOAT status when it was losing Game 7s to the Clippers under Mark Jackson, nor was Curry ever supposed to become one of the greatest players in NBA history. So while we don’t know this 2023-24 Warriors squad’s ceiling over the next handful of months, we should know by now that — whatever it ends up being — we shouldn’t be surprised.
Filed under: NBA
This is still a team with a losing record (24-26) outside the In-Season Tournament, which has already faded into a distant memory — for me, at least.