Why Lamar Jackson’s MVP Case Has Been Swallowed Up by Narrative

Jackson is clearly better in 2024 than 2023. He probably won't win MVP again.

Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills and Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens are the two leading candidates for 2024 NFL MVP. (Brett Carlsen/Getty Images)

Lamar Jackson is a modern football marvel. The Ravens quarterback needed only 15 passes to produce one of his best games of the season in Baltimore’s 31-2 rout of Houston on Christmas Day — with a 99.8 Total QBR that was tied for the highest single-game rating in the history of the stat (since 2006), and enough rushing yards to surpass Michael Vick for the most by a QB in NFL history.

Statistically, Jackson has been far better in 2024 than he was a year ago, when he won his second career NFL MVP award. He has more passing yards per game (and per attempt), more rushing yards per game (and per attempt), more touchdown passes, fewer interceptions, fewer sacks, more fourth-quarter comebacks and game-winning drives, more completed air yards per attempt, and a vastly better passer rating and QBR.

Even relative to his former MVP-winning self, we’ve never seen a more complete version of Jackson than what he is right now. And he has probably been the best quarterback in the league this season as well: Jackson leads all NFL passers in TD percentage, yards per attempt, adjusted YPA, net yards per attempt, adjusted net YPA, rushing yards per carry, fantasy points, Total QBR and Expected Points Added above replacement. He’s the defending MVP, has outplayed the form that earned him that award, and has been the most efficient player at the most important position.

So, another MVP should be an open-and-shut case for Jackson, right?

Not quite. According to the betting odds at FanDuel, Jackson has just a 25 percent chance to win his second consecutive MVP, trailing heavy favorite Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills:

I don’t necessarily want to get into hair-splitting over the competing candidacies of Jackson and Allen — Allen is a close second behind Jackson in QBR and many other categories, while his team will end up with more wins and a better seed in the AFC playoffs. Allen’s Bills also have a very compelling narrative; this is one of the best Buffalo teams ever, representing an incredible chance for a franchise that has been on the cusp of its first NFL championship for a while now.

But I do think there are a few interesting psychological factors that cause us to (probably unfairly) downplay Jackson’s case as MVP.