The Strange Case of Ketel Marte’s Fluctuating MVP-Caliber Form

Every few years, Marte rips off an incredible season. (But only every few years.)

Ketel Marte of the Arizona Diamondbacks in action against the Philadelphia Phillies on June 23, 2024. (Rich Schultz/Getty Images)

The Arizona Diamondbacks seem to be suffering from some sort of post-World Series malaise this season, following up their surprising pennant run with a sub-.500 record and 24 percent playoff odds — neither of which have shown many signs of turning around as we approach the All-Star break.

But you can’t blame any of that on Ketel Marte.

The 30-year-old second baseman went into Thursday’s action ranked among the 10 most valuable players in MLB according to Wins Above Replacement — tracking for 7.7 WAR per 162 team games, which would be the third-best by a batter in franchise history, trailing only Luis Gonzalez in 2001 (8.4) and Paul Goldschmidt in 2015 (7.8). Though Marte will be the National League’s starter at 2B in the All-Star Game, it still feels like he is underrated: He’s currently better than league average in every major offensive category (AVG, OBP, SLG, etc.) and on defense as well. The guy is good at everything.

Perhaps one reason why we don’t fully appreciate Marte is that he hasn’t actually done this every year. I always have Marte set in my mind as an elite player because he was among the best of the young players elevating the sport in 2019, when he produced 6.6 WAR at age 25 and was MLB’s most valuable second baseman by a wide margin over DJ LeMahieu of the Yankees. But he hadn’t really replicated that effort in any of the seasons leading up to 2024, missing chunks of multiple seasons with injuries and failing to produce even 3 WAR per 162 again until he had 4.7 last year.

But now Marte is back and on pace for a career-best season. That tendency to put up an MVP-level performance every handful of years is surprisingly uncommon — so much so that I’m creating a special new club just for him and players of his ilk: the Ketel Marte Association for Rejuvenated Talent, or KMART for short.

To join the KMART, you must be an AL/NL player who meets the following criteria:

• Two or more seasons of at least 6.5 WAR per 162 games

• Those seasons are at least 5 years apart

• Fewer than 5 WAR/162 in any season in between those seasons

That leaves us with the following list of players from history:

Each player has his own backstory behind his club membership.

• Cronin actually averaged 7.5 WAR/162 per season from 1930-33, winning the 1930 AL MVP, but he fell off after becoming player-manager of the Washington Senators. He averaged a greatly reduced 3.6 WAR/162 over the following 8 seasons — with the exception of his KMART year of 1938, when he had 6.9 WAR/162 and an OPS roughly 100 points higher than the surrounding seasons.

• Johnson was a very good ballplayer (an eight-time All-Star!) who is almost completely forgotten now. Despite getting a late MLB start at age 27, he was very consistent throughout his late 20s and 30s, averaging 4.2 WAR/162 from 1933-45 even if we remove his KMART seasons. But in 1939 and again in 1944, he stepped things up to an MVP-caliber level for the A’s and Red Sox, respectively.

• We should all know why Greenberg had a gap in his production from 1940 to 1946: The original “Hammerin’ Hank” served 47 months in the military during World War II — more than any other major leaguer. My friend Harry Enten wrote a piece about Greenberg’s case as the greatest Jewish ballplayer for CNN, which you should go read.

• Fisk is an interesting case. The only catcher on our list, he won Rookie of the Year and finished fourth in MVP voting at age 24 in 1972, putting up a .909 OPS with gold glove defense behind the plate. But a series of knee injuries derailed his next few seasons, keeping him from really getting back to full strength again until 1976 (despite his memorable home run in the 1975 World Series) and his KMART season of 1977. All of this happened by age 29, but I have childhood memories of Fisk still playing for the White Sox in the ‘90s, spending another decade-and-a-half as a solid producer but not getting back to the form of his 20s.

• I’ve long argued that Olerud is one of the most underrated players in history; he deserved a lot more than to drop off the Hall of Fame ballot after getting just 0.7 percent of the vote in his lone appearance. (Should I bring back the Hall of Pretty Damn Good Players here on Substack?) But maybe one reason for his lack of hype is how disjointed Olerud’s career was. He won the 1993 AL batting crown, hitting .363 at age 24 for the World Champion Blue Jays, but didn’t recapture that level again until joining the Mets in 1997 — and the KMART a year later. And yet, after another outstanding season in 1998, Olerud quickly tailed off and was basically done as a useful player by age 35.

Which brings us to Marte, our club’s namesake. He’s had his own ups and downs since 2019, including injuries and mysterious power outages, but also a .914 OPS in last year’s postseason to help Arizona make the Fall Classic. Now he seems to be playing like his best self again — and it’s worth watching whether he can maintain that performance for a longer period this time around.

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Filed under: Baseball