Hockey Bytes: Washington Wake-Up
Hockey Bytes: Washington Wake-Up
The Capitals seemed cooked not too long ago — but now they might have a bridge to the future. Plus, remembering a forgotten star of the early 2000s who left us too soon.
Welcome to Hockey Bytes — a weekly NHL column in which I point out several byte-sized pieces of information that jumped out to me from my various hockey spreadsheets. If you’ve noticed a Hockey Byte of your own, email me and I’ll feature it in a future column!
🧊 Capital Gains
It’s late in the 2022-23 season, and the Washington Capitals are in trouble. After a relatively promising start that had their playoff odds sitting at 75 percent around New Year’s, the Caps have lost 27 of their final 39 games to close out the regular season, dropping them out of postseason contention despite a strong 42-goal showing from still-productive franchise icon Alex Ovechkin. The NHL’s second-oldest team — fittingly, only the Pittsburgh Penguins with Sidney Crosby, who also missed the playoffs, were older — now faces a bleak future, where Ovechkin’s pursuit of Wayne Gretzky’s goals record might be the only thing left to look forward to.
A year later, not much has changed. The Caps win five more games and make the playoffs, only to be swept immediately by the New York Rangers in Round 1. Worse yet, the team’s foundation is no stronger — despite the extra wins, Washington’s goal differential has dropped from -0.12 to -0.45, and the now 38-year-old Ovechkin is barely scraping past 30 goals. Once again the league’s second-oldest team, Washington makes a flurry of offseason moves in a last-ditch attempt to salvage the tail end of the Ovechkin Era. But the franchise still appears headed for a slow, sad trip toward an inevitable rebuild.
And yet, here we are a month into the 2024-25 season, and the Capitals have totally turned that narrative around on its head. As of Wednesday, Washington had won 10 of its first 14 games, elevating its playoff odds from 32 percent in preseason to 66 percent now — a change that ranked second only to the Minnesota Wild in terms of improvement since Opening Night:
(Note: This was before Washington blew a 3-1 lead to the Leafs on Wednesday night.)
Again, the aging Penguins are a useful comparison point: Pittsburgh’s attempt to squeeze out whatever wins are left in their ancient core is failing badly, with coach Mike Sullivan on the verge of being fired. It wasn’t long ago that D.C. seemed destined for a similar outcome around Ovechkin.
But Washington has defied its fate — and then some. The Caps’ GPG differential of +1.36 is tracking to be just the second time they broke the +1.00 barrier in the Ovi Era (2010 being the other), after rising from 16th in scoring defense to 8th and from 28th on offense to 2nd.
The old hands have played a role in Washington’s resurgence. Ovechkin, John Carlson and Tom Wilson are tracking for their most combined adjusted points (238) and adjusted Offensive GAR (48.0) in any single season together as teammates. Rather than continuing to fade with age, Ovi had 10 goals in his first 14 games of the 2024-25 season, and went into Wednesday night having pulled within 31 goals of the Great One’s record.
But perhaps the more surprising — and impressive — element of the Caps’ rebound is the fact that their roster has gotten younger relative to the league, and the under-30 set is already delivering results.
According to Hockey-Reference, Washington is up from 31st-youngest in average age last season to 22nd-youngest. That may not sound like much, but the Capitals hadn’t previously ranked better than 25th-youngest since they won the Stanley Cup in 2017-18. Chief among the younger names making a big difference are forwards Dylan Strome (age 27) and Connor McMichael (age 24), both of whom are on pace for at least 25.0 adjusted GAR, with 24-year-old C Aliaksei Protas (18.6 adjusted GAR), new 26-year-old D Jakob Chychrun (15.2) and 24-year-old D Rasmus Sandin (13.3) also chipping in.
All told, seven of Washington’s top 10 GAR players this season are under age 30, with Ovechkin, Carlson and Wilson being the lone exceptions. That’s not necessarily what we would have expected just a few years ago, when this team was still leaning on the aging likes of Darcy Kuemper, Nick Jensen, Max Pacioretty, Evgeny Kuznetsov, T.J. Oshie, Trevor van Riemsdyk, Nicklas Backstrom and Nic Dowd as a core around its big three stars.
And more might be on the way. Loyal readers of The Hockey News (such as myself) might have noticed that the latest issue — devoted primarily to each team’s prospect pipeline — features a quartet of Capitals on its cover: Andrew Cristall, Ryan Leonard, Ivan Miroshnichenko and Hendrix Lapierre. While none have made much of an impact on the 2024-25 Caps yet,1 they represent the next generation of players who could carry Washington into its post-Ovechkin future.
Just a few years ago, that future was looking dark indeed. But the mix of old and young driving Washington’s surprising success to start this season may mean hockey ops president Brian MacLellan and general manager Chris Patrick have pulled off an impressive tightrope act to span between franchise eras.
🧊 Remembering Some Guys: Pavol Demitra
(One of my favorite features from old-school Deadspin was Let’s Remember Some Guys, in which their staffers — usually David Roth and Lauren Theisen — would unpack trading cards and riff on the players who came up. In that spirit, I will use this space to occasionally ✨Remember Some NHL Guys✨ from the past.)
The Guy: Pavol Demitra
The Backstory: As a hockey fan growing up, I was a sucker for players whose careers started slow while struggling for a regular role — and maybe even having to change teams — but who, when finally given a regular opportunity, showed what they could do, producing numbers few expected them to be capable of. So of course I was drawn to the story of Pavol Demitra, the Slovak winger drafted 227th overall by the Ottawa Senators in 1993 and traded to the St. Louis Blues for a depth defenseman in 1996.
Why We Remember Him: Aside from some huge scoring numbers in the minors, Demitra had shown few signs that he would be a major NHL contributor, much less a star. But in 1997-98, his first season of extended playing time, he scored 22 goals — then followed that with one of the great out-of-nowhere seasons of the Dead Puck Era: 37 goals and 89 points in 1998-99. The Blues were a really competitive team at that time, even if they couldn’t quite get over the playoff hump, and Demitra was their best player by adjusted GAR from 1998-2004.
He also tacked on 43 points in 66 playoff games with the team, including an OT goal against the eventual-champ Stars in 1999. And as if to prove his ‘99 season was no fluke, Demitra recorded 36 goals and 57 assists for 93 points in 2002-03, the best offensive season of his career. In the Dead Puck Era, 85-90 points was the equivalent of 100+ points in a more normal season, so Demitra would probably be remembered more if he hadn’t had his best years during such an offensively depressed time for the game.
Then again, Demitra was also a guy whose production didn’t translate as well to the other side of the NHL’s 2005 Lockout. He left St. Louis for the Kings, Wild and Canucks, and had some solid years, but nothing approaching his pre-lockout peak. By age 36, he was out of the NHL and playing in the KHL.
Gone Too Soon: Demitra’s story has a tragic ending. After joining the KHL, he played for Lokomotiv Yaroslavl, where he averaged more than a point per game in his first season. But before his second season could begin, Demitra was among those lost in a devastating plane crash. The team’s charter flight crashed along the banks of the Volga River, killing 44 of the 45 people onboard — one of the deadliest incidents in the history of sports team travel.
Legacy: Demitra was a three-time All-Star and a fixture in the voting for the Lady Byng Trophy, given to the game’s most gentlemanly player, which says a lot about who he was both on and off the ice. In addition to being a gifted scorer and playmaker — you don’t get nearly 40 goals and 90 points in 1998-99 without serious skills — Demitra was a responsible two-way forward and a respected leader, serving as captain of both the Wild and his native Slovak team at different times in his career. And I think all of that makes him a player worth remembering.
Filed under: NHL, Hockey, Hockey Bytes
Lapierre has played, but carries a -1.9 adjusted GAR.
Great call out on the Caps, but I have a slightly different take. I rarely mention coaching as a material reason for a team's success - too much mindless and unsubstantiated focus on X's and O's and the vaporous "schemes". However, an exception needs to be made for Spencer Carbery...even though the NHL press continues to only recognize the old retreads playing musical chairs.
Moving on from Peter Laviolette to the untested Carbery was a bit controversial - particularly, after a slow start last year that seemed to be impacting Ovechkin's production. A key learning from this was that Carbery was formerly the coach of the Caps' Hershey Bears farm team and knew the organization and younger players well - and they knew and respected him. Beyond that, Carbery as a rookie HC made several key and difficult moves, including replacing Kuemper with Lindgren as starting goalie and implementing a new system.
By the end of last year and into the Playoffs, the Caps seemed to have gained familiarity and comfort with Carbery's system and that has carried over to this year. The trend toward 2024 success began late last year, even though the overall record was hiding it. Importantly, Ovechkin now seems to be firmly back on track too.
As you note, the 2023 Caps were facing the netherworld of being "OK" but not great. That can quickly crystallize a team to embrace the safety of mediocrity until it gets worse and the need for changes are obvious and less risky for decision-makers. The single greatest factor in sustaining organizational success is making difficult moves that you don't have to make and don't want to make before it's too late.
It's the greatest illusion. You make changes when you are strong, not weak. But nobody wants to trade a mediocre present for a possibly better future. Safer to stay the course and not be accountable.
The Caps took the road less traveled by, and that has made all the difference. The front office and Carbery should be applauded for having the organizational courage to keep making tough changes - including hiring an untested rookie head coach - when it was the riskiest to do.
Absolutely spot on...sometimes it doesn't work of course, but the alternative is almost always worse.