QB U: Top 5 Quarterback Matchups of Week 1 (Based on 2023 Stats)
Let's kick off a college QB column with a ranking of this week's best matchups, on paper.
Welcome to QB U, another (hopefully) regular feature I’m introducing at this here Substack, in which I rank 5 items vaguely related to college football quarterbacks throughout the season. Why quarterbacks? I have this schedule-adjusted Points Above Replacement (PAR) metric for QBs going back to 1956, and I figure I should do something with that. If you have a QB U idea you’d like me to cover, email me1 and I’ll feature it in a future column!
🏈 This Week’s Theme: Best QB matchups of Week 1, based on a combination of FBS-level returning PAR for the school and the specific QBs involved (both in their careers and last season).
🏈 1. Miami at Florida
3:30 PM ET Saturday, ABC/ESPN+
This should be a good one, with a pair of QBs who have a bunch of experience on multiple teams: Florida’s Graham Mertz, who started his career at Wisconsin and is now in Year 2 with the Gators, versus Cam Ward, who transferred to the Hurricanes after a couple of years at Washington State. Both players were worth in excess of 80 PAR last year, with Ward producing 91.7 for the Cougars and Mertz posting 82.4 despite ending the year early with an injury. NFL scouts will have an eye on both, as both Mertz and especially Ward have draft potential.
🏈 2. Penn State at West Virginia
12:00 PM ET Saturday, FOX
Penn State’s Drew Allar (74.5 PAR last year) is one of the main reasons why the Nittany Lions are hopeful about making the program’s first-ever College Football Playoff. But the better all-around QB in this matchup might be WVU’s Garrett Greene, who had 89.6 PAR last season while throwing for 2,406 yards, running for 772 more, and putting up 29 total TDs between the air and the ground. PSU is an 8-point favorite on the road, but I like whenever the underdog has a dangerous QB leading them at home.
🏈 3. Western Kentucky at Alabama
7:00 PM ET Saturday, ESPN
We all know Alabama’s Jalen Milroe is one of the best returning QBs in the nation this season, having produced 103.2 PAR last season. Every expectation is for him to have a monster season at the helm of new Crimson Tide coach Kalen DeBoer’s offense. But the one thing that might make this matchup more interesting than the typical opening-game Bama walkover is TJ Finley of the Hilltoppers, who has played some — if not particularly well or extensively — in the SEC for both LSU and Auburn before transferring to Texas State last season, producing solid numbers relative to the competition (65.7 PAR) in a high-scoring offense. Now he’s on WKU, and will take on the team he chose LSU over as a high schooler.
🏈 4. Virginia Tech at Vanderbilt
12:00 PM ET Saturday, ESPN
Michael Vick and Jay Cutler aside, we don’t necessarily think of the Hokies and Commodores as QB factories. But don’t sleep on this contest between Vandy’s Diego Pavia (a New Mexico State transfer who followed Jerry Kill and Tim Beck to Nashville) and VT’s Kyron Drones: Both had more than 60 PAR last season — Pavia 70.7, Drones 63.9 — and Drones has the potential to challenge Ward and Georgia Tech’s Haynes King as the ACC’s top QB. Bonus points go to Va. Tech for also rostering Collin Schlee, who had 91.4 career PAR at Kent State and UCLA, at backup QB.
🏈 5. Georgia vs. Clemson
12:00 PM ET Saturday, ABC/ESPN+
UGA’s QB U bona fides are ironclad with Carson Beck, my No. 2 returning QB in 2024 by PAR, leading the way. Beck’s 122.4 PAR last season ranked fifth in the nation behind Jayden Daniels, Bo Nix, Michael Penix Jr. and Dillon Gabriel, and he could potentially have Georgia’s best QB season on a per-game basis since Eric Zeier (135.3 PAR per 13 team games) in 1994. Clemson is a little less proven with Cade Klubnik (51.4 PAR last year) in his second season as primary starter. But Klubnik is more experienced now and has the potential to return the Tigers to QB prominence after a few down seasons. We’ll find out right away if Klubnik is going to be more of a Trevor Lawrence/Deshaun Watson type or a D.J. Uiagalelei.
Other Games to Watch: Notre Dame (Riley Leonard) at Texas A&M (Conner Weigman); Boston College (Thomas Castellanos) at Florida State (D.J. Uiagalelei); Colorado State (Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi) at Texas (Quinn Ewers)
Filed under: College Football, QB U
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