Nobody Has the Knicks’ Number Like the Pacers
(Nobody except for Michael Jordan, that is.)
One of the most exciting, promising seasons in recent New York Knicks history ended abruptly on Sunday, with the Indiana Pacers beating N.Y. 130-109 in Game 7 of the East semifinals at Madison Square Garden.
New York will have plenty of time to dissect the reasons for the loss: Crucial Game 7 injuries to OG Anunoby (5 minutes in) and, cruelest of all, Jalen Brunson (who fractured his hand with 5 minutes left in the third quarter), on top of a growing injury list during the series overall. A defense that allowed the third-most points ever in a Game 7 — the second-most ever by a road team — and by far the highest field goal percentage (67.1%) by a road team in a Game 7.
Six different Pacers scored in double-figures, including Tyrese Haliburton with a team-high 26 and T.J. McConnell with 12 off the bench, helping to spoil an incredible game (39 points, 9-for-15 from 3) by hot-shooting Donte DiVincenzo in the loss. Indiana grabbed a 10+ point lead before the end of the first quarter, taking the crowd out of the game early and answering every time the Knicks seemed to build momentum.
All told, it was a bitterly disappointing season finale for New York in a game where things seemed set up for the home team to advance. The Knicks had been 5-1 in the playoffs, and a perfect 3-0 in the series, at MSG before Game 7. If any team seemed primed to allow 130 points, one would have guessed it might be Indiana, given their porous defense.
But that would discount the history between these two franchises. Including 2024, the Pacers and Knicks have faced off eight times starting in 1993:
1993 Round 1: Knicks win 3-1
1994 Round 3: Knicks win 4-3
1995 Round 2: Pacers win 4-3
1998 Round 2: Pacers win 4-1
1999 Round 3: Knicks win 4-2
2000 Round 3: Pacers win 4-2
2013 Round 2: Pacers win 4-2
2024 Round 2: Pacers win 4-3
Overall, that’s 5 wins for the Pacers (including 5 of the past 6 series), 3 wins for the Knicks… and 8 points in 9 seconds for Reggie Miller.
Going back to their last championship run in 1973, the Knicks have made the playoffs 27 times. Nearly one-fifth of those trips (five, or 18.5%) have ended at the hands of the Pacers. Only the Chicago Bulls, with six eliminations of the Knicks, have done more to keep New York from winning another ring.
Five of those Bulls series came specifically during the Michael Jordan era, but the Pacers have now tied MJ in the number of times they’ve thwarted the Knicks since their last NBA title.
New York has a lot to be proud of from the 2023-24 season, from the ongoing superstar ascent of Brunson to the development of the supporting cast around him. But in a do-or-die game at the Garden, the Knicks’ season ran out of steam against one of their oldest, most hated nemeses.
Filed under: NBA
Great read. One stat that I follow, particularly during the postseason is Usage Percentage ("USG%). My theory is that up to a certain percentage, increasing a star player's usage yields more wins. At some point, however, it flattens to no benefit and then declines as the percentage increases (the law of diminishing marginal return).
I don't know for certain what that inflection point is, but I've used LeBron as a benchmark since he is clearly one of the top 5 players ever (take your positional pick). LeBron's USG% has been remarkably consistent throughout his career - 31.5% regular season, 31.7 postseason.
In all his years of playing it's never been at or above 34% in the regular season, and only four years in the postseason. It hovers around 32% with remarkable precision. This, despite no coach or player having the courage to tell LeBron not to take a higher percentage of the offense. He seems to sense that over-usage hurts winning - even for him across multiple teams, coaches, rosters and early criticism that he avoided the clutch last shot in big games.
Put another way, if LeBron isn't increasing his USG% above 32% his entire career...why is anybody else? So, 32% feels optimal to me for a star player, while 34 or more is a danger zone.
This year is interesting. Jalen Brunson's USG% was a healthy 32.5% this season, but an alarming 36.7 in the postseason. Even when the Knicks were rolling, his numbers were a cause for concern for me. Doncic has gone the other way - as have the Mavs. His prior two postseason USG% were both 40.4%, both disappointing exits. This year? 31.3% and the Mavs are moving on.
Now, there are many valid reasons your USG% might be elevated for a short period. Injuries are one. However, once a single player gets above 34%, the team is at risk of suffering offensively and the head coach needs to assess what's best given the circumstances. Regarding Brunson, what portions of the Pacer games I saw, he tended to handle the ball too much (over dribble) and take several ill-advised shots at the end. His teammates seemed to stop moving and watch him as he was handling the ball, slowing down the offense and eliminating options.
Others might disagree, but I think part of the maturation process when you get to a star level is to follow LeBron's lead and realize that often, less is more.