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⚾ 2026 MLB Elo Power Ratings, Playoff Odds & Wins Above Replacement (WAR) rankings 📈
The following table is a list of MLB teams with their Elo ratings and their predicted wins throughout the 2026 season.
23 hrs ago
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Neil Paine
8
3
8
Home Again at The Trop, the Rays Are Back Where They Win
It may be MLB's least-loved ballpark, but the Tampa Bay Rays have turned Tropicana Field into a real home-field edge — one they sorely missed last year.
Apr 8
•
Neil Paine
6
1
How MLB's Big Extension Bets Are Changing
No longer content to lock up young stars early in their MLB careers, teams are now making huge wagers on them before they've even arrived in the bigs.
Apr 3
•
Neil Paine
12
1
The Phillies' Win-Now Balancing Act Is Already Being Tested
It's WAY too early to panic in Philadelphia. But MLB's oldest team is trying to thread a high-stakes needle — handing off to the future while still…
Apr 1
•
Neil Paine
16
1
3
How Many Wins Will Get You Into the 2026 MLB Playoffs?
Plus: Projected win distributions, the toughest divisions, team nemeses, and more "fun with MLB Elo simulation data".
Mar 25
•
Neil Paine
10
4
1
Who Has the Most to Prove This MLB Season?
From contenders to pretenders, and everyone in between, 2026 is a prove-it year across baseball.
Mar 24
•
Neil Paine
9
1
4
The WBC Is Over. Soon, the Real Baseball Season Can Begin.
The 2026 preseason MLB forecast consensus has a clear World Series favorite — no surprise there! — but plenty of the usual uncertainty that makes…
Mar 18
•
Neil Paine
12
2
Japan Is the WBC Standard — So Why Is the U.S. Favored?
Odds have the Americans as heavy World Baseball Classic favorites for 2026, but historical dominance suggests "Samurai Japan" (侍ジャパン) is being…
Mar 3
•
Neil Paine
16
2
2
The Strike Zone We (Think We) Want
MLB's official introduction of Automated Ball-Strike (ABS) challenges highlights the tension between the rules of the game in theory and in practice.
Feb 26
•
Neil Paine
19
5
2
What Carlos Beltrán — and Especially Andruw Jones — Say About the Hall of Fame's Evolving Standards
Cooperstown's two new center fielders show why milestone totals matter less than they once did — and how modern value metrics can rewrite a Hall of Fame…
Jan 22
•
Neil Paine
10
3
1
What I Learned From the 344 Posts I Wrote in 2025
I categorized every post I published in 2025 by type and sport to see what I actually spent the year writing about — then picked out the stories that…
Dec 31, 2025
•
Neil Paine
28
6
2
The Chiefs Are Doing the Weirdest "Relocation" in Pro Sports History
Is it a short commute of a stadium-switch or a full-blown franchise move? Yes.
Dec 30, 2025
•
Neil Paine
6
2
2
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