The NBA Finalists Who Went Down 0-2 on the Road... And Won Anyway
It's rare, but it can be done.
As I said in
’s round-up reacting to Game 2 of the NBA Finals, the Boston Celtics do not quite have the 2024 championship in the bag yet… but seeing them fumble away it would be unlikely.In the history of the NBA Finals, teams who went up 2-0 at home in the first two games of the series are a combined 28-5, which means taking care of business like the Celtics did before heading to Dallas isn’t just “holding serve” the way a lot of pundits like to think of it — it actually grants you an 85 percent chance of winning the title, historically speaking.
(As a brief aside, I like to use the “went up 2-0 at home” stat rather than the basic “went up 2-0” stat — which carries a 31-5 record in the Finals all-time — because some of the teams in that sample went up 2-0 on the road… an even greater harbinger of winning the title, but one not applicable to the Celtics right now.)
But of course, 85 percent isn’t 100 percent. So let’s look at the five teams who bucked that trend, coming back home and winning the championship despite digging themselves an early hole, and analyze what lessons Dallas might take from them:
2021 Milwaukee Bucks (beat Phoenix in 6)
We all know about the tendency of Chris Paul teams to blow 2-0 leads over the years — and this was the highest-profile example of that in CP3’s entire career, coming as it did during his lone trip to the Finals. Paul didn’t help his cause, either, with an average Game Score that dropped from 22.2 in Games 1-2 to 13.6 in Games 3-6, headlining a Phoenix ensemble cast that completely fell off a cliff. It’s also true, though, that Giannis Antetokounmpo simply took over this series.
Over the Bucks’ four consecutive wins to close out the title, he averaged 37.3 points and 12.5 rebounds per game while shooting 61.1% from the field and a high-by-his-standards 69.1% from the line. Giannis’ 42.0 Game Score (with 50 points/14 boards) in the clincher was the second-highest in NBA playoff history in a Game 6. Combined with far tougher defense and vastly improved play from Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday, Giannis’ superstar takeover turned the Bucks’ Finals fortunes around.
2016 Cleveland Cavaliers (beat Golden State in 7)
After crushing the Cavs by an average of 24 points per game in the opening two contests, the 73-win Warriors seemed like overwhelming favorites to beat Cleveland in a second consecutive Finals. Even after the Cavs won Game 3 by 30, a Game 4 loss at home put them in do-or-die territory — but Draymond Green’s flagrant foul (and subsequent suspension) for hitting LeBron James in the nether regions proved to be the turning point in the series.
Powering a road win over the Draymond-less Warriors in Game 5 with 41 points and 16 rebounds, James delivered 41 again (with 11 assists and 8 boards) in Game 6 to set up the winner-take-all seventh game at Golden State. James’ triple-double (27 points/11 assists/11 rebounds) and Kyrie Irving’s critical 3-pointer with 53 seconds to play — marking his 26th point of the night — gave Cleveland the margin it needed to pull off arguably the NBA’s all-time greatest upset and/or comeback.
2006 Miami Heat (beat Dallas in 6)
It’s funny how often history rhymes, even when it doesn’t outright repeat itself. What the Dallas Mavericks are trying to do now — returning home to claw out of an 0-2 Finals deficit — is exactly what they were the victim of 18 years earlier, against the Miami Heat.
Dallas easily built its early series lead with a pair of double-digit victories, as Dirk Nowitzki and Jason Terry combined for 45 PPG on 49% shooting, compared with Dwyane Wade and Shaquille O’Neal’s respective 36.5 and 45% marks through two games. However, that’s about when Wade began his own epic Finals takeover. 42 points in Game 3 — including 15 in the fourth quarter — helped Miami hang on to win 98-96; 36 more spurred a blowout home win in Game 4 to tie the series up. 43 more for Wade in Game 5 erased a big Dallas first-half lead to push the Mavs to the brink; then 36 points and 10 rebounds (with 66.1% true shooting) put Miami over the top in Game 6.
Overall, Wade averaged an incredible 39.3 points (on 50.5% shooting from the field) and 8.3 rebounds — with, yes, 14.5 made free throws per game — over the final four games of the 2006 Finals. Nowitzki actually averaged more PPG in the four losses than the two wins, but he shot under 40% from the field, and early-series contributing teammates like Terry and Jerry Stackhouse receded into the background as Wade and Miami overwhelmed the Mavs.
1977 Portland Trail Blazers (beat Philadelphia in 6)
The ‘77 Blazers’ championship team came up quite often in recent remembrances of the late, great Bill Walton, the 1977 Finals MVP (and Hall of Famer, among many other accolades) who died two weeks ago. But few recall that it took an impressive comeback for Portland to storm back and win the franchise’s first (and, to date, only) title.
Early in the Finals, the Sixers were controlling the series despite Walton producing great numbers (22.5 PPG/51.4 FG%/18.5 RPG). In addition to the superstar play of Dr. J, Julius Erving, Philly was also getting 28.5 points, 5.5 rebounds and 4.5 assists per game out of 25-year-old All-Star guard Doug Collins, while Henry Bibby was directing their offense with 7.0 assists per game. It would take a tactical adjustment by Dr. Jack Ramsay — and a change in on-court emphasis by Walton — to engineer the comeback.
That’s exactly what happened. Over the final four games of the series, Walton’s scoring dropped to 16.5 PPG, but he shot the ball better and spread it around far more with his passing — enabling Bob Gross, Maurice Lucas, Johnny Davis and Lionel Hollins to combine for 72.3 PPG collectively. Walton was also more focused on defense, where Ramsay had Portland force Dr. J to be the focus of everything. Erving averaged 32.3 PPG on 52.3% shooting down the stretch of the Finals, but Collins’ scoring dipped to 15.3 PPG and Bibby’s assists fell to just 2.8 per game.
Without reliable contributions from his teammates, Erving scored 37 in Game 5 and 40 in Game 6, but the Blazers survived both by 8 total points to finish the championship comeback.
1969 Boston Celtics (beat L.A. Lakers in 7)
1968-69 was the last gasp of Boston’s untouchable dynasty that won 11 titles in 13 seasons — but that 11th championship looked far from guaranteed early in the Finals. Until that year, the Celtics had never faced an 0-2 deficit in any of their previous Finals throughout the Bill Russell Era. This time, they needed to derail a hot Lakers offense that was getting 47 points per game out of Jerry West (and 75 out of West + Elgin Baylor combined) and was out-true-shooting Boston 55% to 48%.
As was often the case with those Celtics — who were now player-coached by Russell — the secret to the turnaround was getting back to the franchise’s selfless basics. John Havlicek had been averaging 40 PPG through two games, but Boston wouldn’t be successful if they didn’t spread the ball around more and focus on two-way play. Over the final five games of the series, six different Celtics averaged double-figures in PPG — the only exception being, tellingly, Russell — but none more than Havlicek’s 23.6.
On defense, they slowed West down some through double- and triple-teams; he still scored 37.9 PPG in the series, being named Finals MVP despite losing — the only time that’s ever happened. But they did a better job of neutralizing his Laker teammates Baylor (whose scoring dipped to 14.0 PPG on 32% shooting down the stretch) and Johnny Egan, while reducing the effectiveness of Wilt Chamberlain’s passing.1 The Celtics still had to sweat things out in Game 7; a contest they led 91-76 on the road through three quarters turned into a one-possession game with under two minutes to play.
Boston held on, though, with help from a generous bounce off the back rim on a jumper by Don Nelson — who’d go on to coach the early years of the Nowitzki-era Mavericks (as everything comes back full circle).
So, what lessons can be gleaned from the five teams to successfully do what the 2024 Mavs are aiming for this week? It seems like Dallas will need a few factors to break their way if they are to replicate these historical comebacks:
Stars take center stage. While it’s hard to imagine Dallas getting a whole lot more out of Luka Dončić, who is already averaging a superhuman 31.0 PPG/51.1 FG%/10.5 RPG/6.0 APG/3.0 SPG in the series so far, Kyrie Irving needs to deliver a lot more than the 14.0 PPG (with 35.1% shooting) he’s averaging so far. And both players will likely need to have a handful of huge “takeover” moments over the rest of the series.
Strategic adjustments. Almost all of our comeback teams either tweaked their own usage distribution — favoring a more balanced approach — or forced the opponent’s best player to beat them rather than spreading things around. Given the depth and talent of Boston’s ensemble cast, that may not actually be possible against this Celtics team, but Dallas can’t afford to have five Celtics averaging 16+ PPG the rest of the series.
An unexpected turning point. This factor is difficult to forecast, which is part of why even 0-2 comebacks are rare in the NBA Finals. Things like Draymond’s suspension in 2016 or Wade’s sudden emphasis on driving to the basket and drawing fouls can completely upend what we thought we knew about a series, reducing the predictive value of early games. It’s tough to say what the turning point might be in this particular Finals, as Boston just won a game where they didn’t even shoot 26% on 3-pointers, but some kind of mid-series shakeup will be necessary if Dallas wants to become the sixth team to join our list.
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One of the secrets of Wilt’s career was that his teams were often FAR more efficient offensively when Chamberlain operated as more of a passer than a scorer.
Again - terrific work. It's so easy to simply lay out the statistics and let the Lloyd Christmases of the world exclaim "so, you're sayin' there's a chance!" Actually watching the games themselves - or reviewing them in depth - produces great insights beyond the numbers. Impressively, you take us through each of the 5 and find the little things that made it happen.
What you often find by rolling up your sleeves and descending into the details is that for the outliers, those things that made a difference are noticeably absent in the case before you now. So, while anything is certainly possible, Lloyd Christmas is just a fictitious film character and maybe there isn't really a chance after all.
Kudos again.