Jordan Montgomery to the Diamondbacks caps off MLB’s Best Offseason
Tracking which teams added the most net Wins Above Replacement (WAR) since the end of the 2023 season.
It took a while, but the final huge domino of the 2023-24 MLB offseason finally fell on Tuesday night, when it was reported that lefty starter Jordan Montgomery had agreed to a one-year, $25 million contract with the Arizona Diamondbacks — the team Montgomery helped defeat in the World Series last fall, as a member of the Texas Rangers.
Not coincidentally, Montgomery joining Arizona also made him the centerpiece of the best offseason by any team.
We can measure this (as I’ve done in the past) by looking at the net amount of 2023 Wins Above Replacement — WAR, using my JEFFBAGWELL version1 — each team added via their offseason acquisitions, minus the amount of WAR lost (either directly to other teams or just through waiving or non-tendering players). When we do that, the addition of Montgomery (and his 4.3 WAR last year between St. Louis and Texas) puts Arizona over the top for the No. 1 offseason of 2023-24:
In addition to their new lefty pitcher, the D-backs also added another starter who fits that exact same description — Eduardo Rodriguez (3.4 WAR in 2024) — as well as 3B Eugenio Suárez (2.8 WAR), among others, while losing little of consequence from the team that unexpectedly went to the World Series. Despite what the projections say, they might improve on last year’s 84-78 record.
The Giants, a team I was deeply puzzled by a few weeks ago (slash always), ended up at No. 2, after adding both Blake Snell (5.5) and Matt Chapman (3.9) in March — effectively turning their offseason from mediocre to great in a few weeks’ span.
The Cardinals and Royals are interesting because in addition to adding talent (Sonny Gray went to STL; K.C. added Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo), they also cut loose unproductive players, gaining on our list by subtraction.
Then there are the Yankees and Dodgers, who did the opposite. Both added premium talent — Shohei Ohtani was the best player to move this offseason by a mile, and Juan Soto was third (behind former teammate Snell) — but they also had to give up quite a bit, which drags them down in the net accounting.
Also, I need to highlight the Cincinnati Reds, who show up 7th here. Cincy probably played above its head last year to go 82-80, but there are reasons to think they can exceed their 79.8-win over/under in the forecasts with Elly De La Cruz for a whole season and these offseason improvements. (Reasons beyond just a video game liking them, that is.)
At the other end of the spectrum, the San Diego Padres had the worst offseason by net WAR. That’s not entirely surprising, with Snell, Soto, Josh Hader and many others leaving town. But that last-place figure is including their recent acquisition of Dylan Cease, who was one of the better additions of the offseason. That, and San Diego’s other indicators for improvement, make the Padres one of the more fascinating teams of 2024.
I’m also curious about the fates of four playoff teams on our list of bad offseasons: The Marlins, Brewers, Blue Jays and Twins. The forecasts don’t love Miami or Milwaukee, and Toronto is (as always) in a ridiculously tough divisional fight. But maybe Minnesota has the breathing room to survive the 2nd-worst net WAR offseason, as they’re still projected to be about 7 games better than anybody else in the AL Central.
Whatever happens, I’m excited to check back in on how much these comings and goings actually mattered in the standings. My past research has shown that offseason net WAR doesn’t always correlate with improvements or declines, but this was a particularly active offseason — I mean, SHOHEI OHTANI changed teams, for goodness’ sake. So it has the potential for more impact than the average offseason.
Filed under: Baseball, Statgeekery
That’s the Joint Estimate Featuring FanGraphs and B-R Aggregated to Generate WAR, Equally Leveling Lists.