Mikko Rantanen, Nathan MacKinnon, Sean Walker, Valeri Nichushkin and Devon Toews of the Colorado Avalanche celebrate a goal against the Winnipeg Jets in Game 5 of the First Round. (Jonathan Kozub/NHLI via Getty Images)
Going into the series, my gut told me that Winnipeg would have a strong chance of knocking off Colorado because the Jets had a huge advantage in net (with Connor Hellebuyck going against Alexandar Georgiev) and were bringing the league’s co-No. 1 defense to short-circuit the Avs’ top-ranked offense. Historically, the lesson of the postseason is that defense trumps offense — surely that would especially apply in this battle of strength vs. strength.
Not so much. The Avs scored 5.6 goals per game on Hellebuyck and the Jets, including at least 5 in all five games of the series. Winnipeg had only allowed 5+ goals seven times all regular season long, meaning that 42% of all the 5-goal games yielded by the Jets came against Colorado in the span of nine days. (Before the playoffs, they’d only allowed 5+ goals three times in the previous 167 days.)
In the process, Colorado also challenged a postseason record for the most explosive offensive series ever, relative to the opponent’s regular-season résumé.
At 5.6 goals per game for the series, the Avalanche outpaced Winnipeg’s usual defensive average by +3.2 goals per contest. In the history of hockey, only five playoff series of any length, and only two best-of-seven series, saw a team outscore the opponent’s average goals allowed per game from that year’s regular season by a wider margin:
Coming on the heels of Colorado’s league-leading offensive performance during the regular season, the Avs’ domination of Winnipeg served notice to the rest of the league, starting with either Dallas or Vegas in the next round. Both opponents have solid defenses; it was just demonstrated that this is insufficient to stop Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar, Mikko Rantanen, Artturi Lehkonen, Valeri Nichushkin, Casey Mittelstadt and company.
But still… there’s a long track record of defense beating offense in the playoffs, Colorado’s recent counter-example notwithstanding. If you’ll indulge me, allow me to quote myself from this story about the 2021-22 Florida Panthers (a team whose high-flying offense was indeed struck down in Round 2 of the playoffs):
Since the 2005-06 season, the average series winner at each stage of the playoffs was better defensively than it was offensively during the regular season:1
Based on a logistic regression model using data over that period, we found that teams with a greater share of their goals-per-game differential tied up in outperforming league average on defense tend to go deeper into the playoffs than teams with more of their differential tied up in offense – or even perfectly balanced teams. At the extremes, a team with a defense that allows 1.0 fewer goals than average (but has an average offense) would be about 1.5 times as likely to win the Cup as a team that was 0.5 goals per game better than average on both sides of the puck, and nearly 2.5 times as likely as a team like Florida, with a +1.0 goals-per-game offense but an average defense.
This year’s Avalanche also had an average defense (+0.02 goals per game better than the league), but their offense (+0.59) wasn’t as good as the ‘22 Panthers’ unit (+1.00), so they might be even more prone for an outage than Florida was, if they run into the wrong matchup. (Ironically, Colorado won the Cup that same year with a team that was a lot more balanced: +0.66 goals per game on offense and +0.29 on defense.)
But what is the wrong matchup, if not a defensive juggernaut like Winnipeg with a proven elite goalie like Hellebuyck? It’s a great question.
Of all the teams that potentially stand in Colorado’s way in the West, the Vancouver Canucks had the best defense relative to league average during the regular season (+0.39), followed by Dallas (+0.26) and the Edmonton Oilers (+0.22). Vancouver and the Nashville Predators have been locked in the type of defensive series that either team might be able to trap Colorado in later on. And that’s to say nothing of the East’s many defensive-minded teams, any of which could give the Avs a tough Stanley Cup Final if it comes to that.
But for now, Colorado’s attack looks extremely scary. All we can say to the goalies and defense corps left in the playoffs is this: Watch out.
Neil, I have to say your journalistic launch angle is just terrific - you just keep hitting it out of the park. Another gem of analysis that is being overlooked by the sports media.
The Avs are a terrific story. Yes, Alexandar Georgiev noticeably improved against Winnipeg (Game 1 aside and to some degree because the best defense is a good offense) but the offense was something else - akin to watching a hot 3-point shooting NBA team blow out their opponent who unsuccessfully tries to keep up by pounding it inside for two points as a response. It just "felt" like Colorado was scoring 3 on each goal to the Jets' 2.
Strangely, throughout the season the Avs appeared lethargic at times and a bit disjointed. MacKinnon, Rantanen and Makar were having their usual outstanding seasons, but something was clearly missing - most noticeable during road games. Some fans even began to call for the firing of HC Jared Bednar.
Then at the deadline, Joe Sakic and Chris MacFarland controversially acquired - many thought Bowen Byram was too steep a price to pay - Casey Mittelstadt and Sean Walker. Those deals changed the chemistry and trajectory almost immediately and to dramatic effect.
Suddenly, the entire roster was involved and contributing. It's that depth of contribution that was on full display during the Winnipeg series. There were just too many weapons that were relentlessly coming at Hellebuyck.
I frequently speak here and elsewhere of the importance of front office philosophy and courage for sustained success. An interesting piece of that is owner Stan Kroenke. Kroenke has won two Lombardi trophies with the Rams (one as partial owner), two Stanley Cups with the Avs, and last year, the NBA's O'Brien trophy. That, in addition to championships in other leagues as well. A singularly remarkable accomplishment in sports history that rarely gets talked about.
Despite his incomparable success as an owner, Kroenke remains a bit of a mystery - rarely seen or heard from in the media. Decidedly out of the limelight and allowing his carefully selected general managers the space and autonomy to make moves that are needed. Just imagine if that championship hardware belonged to Jerry Jones. It doesn't, in large measure because he is too intrusive and oppressive.
Throughout Kroenke's organizations, a consistent element is a stable, smart, aggressive front office that takes risks and relentlessly pursues greatness. Everyone remembers Les Snead's "f*ck them picks" as the Rams GM whose hotly debated strategy was ahead of the game and won the Super Bowl, but Joe Sakic and Chris MacFarland are equally aggressive and ahead of the curve in the NHL.
Their draft picks seem to hit more frequently, their trades work out more often, the cap is appropriately managed and their head coaches understand how to quickly blend the constant stream of new resources into a team concept and chemistry. Everyone thought the Rams were a tear down and rebuild last year - they weren't...and the Avs didn't implode after winning the Cup as many predicted after MacKinnon's new expensive contract and the loss of Nazem Kadri.
The Avs are something to see for sure, but while they might not show up in the box score, Kroenke, Sakic and MacFarland are enormous contributors too.
There is such truth here regarding the Avs that it has to make you wonder - depending on how this plays out - how valuable will Jake Oettinger be as a free agent in 2025 (now at only a reported $4 MM per year)? The Avs expressed utter frustration at his ability to stop their shots, saying they felt they played very well in Game 3. He was the difference.
His emerging story has a sort of Binnington/Kuemper feel to it...Stanley Cup timing is everything for the roller coaster ride that is the goaltender's life.
Neil, I have to say your journalistic launch angle is just terrific - you just keep hitting it out of the park. Another gem of analysis that is being overlooked by the sports media.
The Avs are a terrific story. Yes, Alexandar Georgiev noticeably improved against Winnipeg (Game 1 aside and to some degree because the best defense is a good offense) but the offense was something else - akin to watching a hot 3-point shooting NBA team blow out their opponent who unsuccessfully tries to keep up by pounding it inside for two points as a response. It just "felt" like Colorado was scoring 3 on each goal to the Jets' 2.
Strangely, throughout the season the Avs appeared lethargic at times and a bit disjointed. MacKinnon, Rantanen and Makar were having their usual outstanding seasons, but something was clearly missing - most noticeable during road games. Some fans even began to call for the firing of HC Jared Bednar.
Then at the deadline, Joe Sakic and Chris MacFarland controversially acquired - many thought Bowen Byram was too steep a price to pay - Casey Mittelstadt and Sean Walker. Those deals changed the chemistry and trajectory almost immediately and to dramatic effect.
Suddenly, the entire roster was involved and contributing. It's that depth of contribution that was on full display during the Winnipeg series. There were just too many weapons that were relentlessly coming at Hellebuyck.
I frequently speak here and elsewhere of the importance of front office philosophy and courage for sustained success. An interesting piece of that is owner Stan Kroenke. Kroenke has won two Lombardi trophies with the Rams (one as partial owner), two Stanley Cups with the Avs, and last year, the NBA's O'Brien trophy. That, in addition to championships in other leagues as well. A singularly remarkable accomplishment in sports history that rarely gets talked about.
Despite his incomparable success as an owner, Kroenke remains a bit of a mystery - rarely seen or heard from in the media. Decidedly out of the limelight and allowing his carefully selected general managers the space and autonomy to make moves that are needed. Just imagine if that championship hardware belonged to Jerry Jones. It doesn't, in large measure because he is too intrusive and oppressive.
Throughout Kroenke's organizations, a consistent element is a stable, smart, aggressive front office that takes risks and relentlessly pursues greatness. Everyone remembers Les Snead's "f*ck them picks" as the Rams GM whose hotly debated strategy was ahead of the game and won the Super Bowl, but Joe Sakic and Chris MacFarland are equally aggressive and ahead of the curve in the NHL.
Their draft picks seem to hit more frequently, their trades work out more often, the cap is appropriately managed and their head coaches understand how to quickly blend the constant stream of new resources into a team concept and chemistry. Everyone thought the Rams were a tear down and rebuild last year - they weren't...and the Avs didn't implode after winning the Cup as many predicted after MacKinnon's new expensive contract and the loss of Nazem Kadri.
The Avs are something to see for sure, but while they might not show up in the box score, Kroenke, Sakic and MacFarland are enormous contributors too.
There is such truth here regarding the Avs that it has to make you wonder - depending on how this plays out - how valuable will Jake Oettinger be as a free agent in 2025 (now at only a reported $4 MM per year)? The Avs expressed utter frustration at his ability to stop their shots, saying they felt they played very well in Game 3. He was the difference.
His emerging story has a sort of Binnington/Kuemper feel to it...Stanley Cup timing is everything for the roller coaster ride that is the goaltender's life.