Kawhi Leonard Isn’t Managing the Load — He’s Shouldering It
The Clippers' newly-extended star is on pace for his healthiest, best season in many years — and the team is along for the ride.
Despite his status as one of the NBA’s biggest superstars, it can be hard to remember exactly how dominant Kawhi Leonard is — and how much he can add to a team’s title chances — when he’s playing at the peak of his powers.
The last time we saw Kawhi fully factor into a deep NBA playoff run was nearly five years ago when he led the Toronto Raptors to one of history’s great one-off titles. Since then, we’ve seen his L.A. Clippers blow a 3-1 conference semifinal lead (2020); we’ve seen him tracking for an all-time postseason before suffering a torn ACL (2021); and we’ve seen him rehab all the way back, only to tear a meniscus in the same knee after just two playoff games (2023). All the while, Leonard has become synonymous with regular-season load management, playing just 221 out of a possible 308 games (missing 21.8 per season) from 2018-19 through 2022-23.
But this season, Leonard is reminding us that he remains at or near the top of the NBA’s talent pyramid. Fittingly, his team is also looking like one of the top title contenders in the West — and they know how valuable Leonard is to that status, having just signed him to a new contract extension on Wednesday.
Indeed, the Clippers are generally on a roll these days and have been since mid-to-late November — just after the team’s trade for James Harden, which has gone from widely panned (when L.A. started the season 3-7) to begrudgingly commended (as has L.A. won 20 of its past 26 games). It’s tempting to credit Harden for the change; his willingness to play differently (i.e., at a near career-low usage rate) while still finding ways to affect games for the good has been critical in making the Clippers’ star-powered equation work. But make no mistake: Leonard is this team’s truly indispensable element.
With Leonard on the court, Los Angeles has a net rating of plus-11.5, which would lead the league if the Clippers played that way all the time. (Among players with at least 500 minutes this season, that figure ranks eighth overall.) Without Leonard, L.A.’s net rating drops to minus-3.4, which drops the team down to the equivalent of the Utah Jazz. The 14.9-point gap between those ratings is tied for fourth in the league and easily ranks first on the Clippers:
Contrast that with Harden, whose presence on the court has the Clippers playing to a plus-8.3 net rating — but whose absence is also associated with a plus-2.6 net rating for the team. While he clearly makes Los Angeles better, the team doesn’t fall apart without Harden the way it does when Leonard isn’t in the game. (Aside from Leonard, Paul George is the only other qualified Clipper for whom the team has a negative net rating when he sits.)
It’s no mystery why Leonard is so vital to the Clippers’ chances. He is leading L.A. in scoring for the fourth time in five seasons — the only exception being the 2021-22 campaign, which he missed in its entirety due to his ACL injury — and he’s approaching a career-high for points per possession (1.25) on his individual plays. That’s remarkable, given what this version of Kawhi has had to concede to injuries and age. At age 32, and with even more mileage on his legs, he is getting to the rim less than ever, save for still being able to occasionally deliver the most creative finishing moves you will ever see in your life:
But that unparalleled skill ranks him second only to Kevin Durant in field goal percentage within the restricted area, to go with his sheer diversity of other scoring methods (whether on drives, pull-ups, catch-and-shoot attempts, isolations, 3-pointers or short jumpers in the lane). And at the other end of the court, he remains one of the league’s toughest wing defenders — he ranks 10th among qualified shooting guards and/or small forwards (with a minimum of 500 minutes) in Estimated defensive RAPTOR — while being asked to do a surprising amount of defensive work for his age. (He’s also one of only nine qualified wings with both a steal and block rate of at least 2% this season.)
While Leonard isn’t exactly the same player he was in that 2018-19 championship season with Toronto — much less the version that led San Antonio to a title as an even younger man — he still has few peers across the league in terms of his impact on winning when he’s on the court.
And in maybe the most surprising development of all, Leonard has stayed healthy and been a fixture on the court this season. Of the Clippers’ 36 games so far, Leonard has played in 32 of them (89%), his highest share of team games played in a regular season since 2016-17, when he was an MVP candidate with the Spurs.
Whether due to new research indicating that load management wasn’t the cure-all for injuries that teams thought it was or simply increased overall health for Leonard — as Kawhi said of the reason he missed games in recent seasons: “I'm not trying to get to a certain amount of games. I'm trying to play the games that I can play. If I'm hurt, I can't play basketball” — the result has been possibly the best season of his entire NBA career, in Year 13 as a pro. In terms of total value, Leonard is tracking for 14.8 Wins Above Replacement, his most since 2015-16 and the second-most in a season of his entire career:
That might be of slim consolation if the Clippers flame out early in the playoffs … and it might even be viewed as a detriment if Leonard is injured again after pushing hard during the regular season. But clearly, he has provided the backbone for the Clippers’ newfound title buzz as we approach midseason. It’s another reminder of just how dangerous Kawhi — and his team — can be when he’s in the lineup and playing his best basketball.
Filed under: NBA