Can the Oilers End Canada’s Stanley Cup Losing Streak in Game 7s?
Can the Oilers End Canada’s Stanley Cup Losing Streak in Game 7s?
Canadian teams have a knack for taking the Final to 7 games — and then losing. Edmonton is trying to change that.
By now, everyone should know that a Canadian NHL team hasn’t won the Stanley Cup since 1993 — a 31-year drought that is the longest in history by a factor of five over the nation’s second-lengthiest dry spell. It’s a streak that the Edmonton Oilers are, improbably, poised to end tonight in Game 7 of the Finals.
But another aspect of the drought is how many of those Canadian teams came within a single Game 7 victory of ending it over the years.
Out of the seven Stanley Cup Final appearances by Canadian franchises since the streak began in 1994, five of them — including 2024 — have gone the distance, but they’ve yielded four straight losses and counting. Or, put another way, more than half (56 percent) of all the Game 7s in a Stanley Cup Final since 1994 have featured a Canadian team, despite Canadian teams making up only 22 percent of all NHL teams.
There’s something about the drought that’s made even worse by how close Canadian teams have come to ending it, only to lose again and again. So let’s go through each of the Game 7s to look at what went wrong, and why things might be different with the Oilers this time.
1994: Vancouver Canucks
Opponent: New York Rangers
Pre-series Elo win probability: 26.3%
Series sequence: WLLLWWL
Game 7 location: Road
Game 7 win probability: 32.9%
Speaking of droughts, New York was looking to end its own 54-year Cup-less streak in ‘94. And after dropping Game 1 in overtime, the favored, star-laden Rangers built a 3-1 lead, but Vancouver blasted them (10 goals to 4) over the next two games to force a Game 7. The Broadway Blueshirts’ big names came out strong early, with Brian Leetch and Adam Graves delivering first-period goals, and Mark Messier added an insurance goal in the second to put N.Y. up 3-1 going into the third. Then Mike Richter — who was much better in Game 7 than Games 5-6 — survived a late onslaught by the Canucks to preserve a 3-2 Rangers win.
Edmonton’s lesson: Keep putting pressure on a struggling goalie. Richter seemed shaky after posting an .853 save percentage during the previous two losses, but the Canucks didn’t test him until it was too late — they were outshot 26-21 going into the third despite trailing on the scoreboard throughout. Sergei Bobrovsky had a similarly weak .753 SV% as Florida was blowing its 3-0 lead, but the Oilers must keep him from enjoying a Richter-style bounceback.
2004: Calgary Flames
Opponent: Tampa Bay Lightning
Pre-series Elo win probability: 37.2%
Series sequence: WLWLWLL
Game 7 location: Road
Game 7 win probability: 38.1%
Calgary was already kicking themselves going into Game 7, because they missed a golden opportunity to hoist the Cup on home ice in Game 6. But after dropping a double-OT heartbreaker on a Martin St. Louis goal, the Flames had to regroup and fly back to Tampa. There, they fell behind 2-0 on a couple of Ruslan Fedotenko goals, and they couldn’t quite get the equalizer despite peppering Nikolai Khabibulin with 10 shots in the third period.
Edmonton’s lesson: Avoid playing from behind. The Flames spoiled their big chance to win the Cup in Calgary in Game 6, in part because they gave up the first goal of the game — something they had done in each of their previous losses (and none of their previous wins). The same thing happened in Game 7, placing the offensively strapped, underdog Flames in an uncomfortable spot. This year’s Oilers have more firepower to mount comebacks, but they netted the opening goal in each of their three straight wins to tie the 2024 Finals.
2006: Edmonton Oilers
Opponent: Carolina Hurricanes
Pre-series Elo win probability: 51.1%
Series sequence: LLWLWWL
Game 7 location: Road
Game 7 win probability: 42.7%
After the Cup took a year off for the 2005 NHL lockout, the Finals once again saw a Canadian team — from the Battle of Alberta, no less — fight for seven games against a Sun Belt foe. This time, Edmonton needed to dig out of a 3-1 hole not too dissimilar from their 3-0 deficit in 2024 (they had a 9.4 percent of coming back, as opposed to 3.3 percent this year). But the Oilers showed a ton of grit while sticking out a 4-3 OT win, then blew out Carolina before a raucous Canadian crowd in Game 6. Back in Raleigh, the Canes struck right away in Game 7, putting Edmonton back on its heels — a place it remained for most of the game, right up until serial playoff hero Justin Williams sealed the Cup with an empty-netter.
Edmonton’s lesson: Don’t lose the momentum. After surviving the back-and-forth chaos of Game 5 and dominating Game 6 — outshooting Carolina 34 to 16 — the Oilers rolled into Game 7 (against rookie netminder Cam Ward) with momentum on their side. That all went away 86 seconds into the game, when defenseman Aaron Ward ripped a slapshot past goalie Jussi Markkanen, who was pressed into action by an injury to Dwayne Roloson earlier in the series. That set the tone for a game in which Edmonton was mostly flat — something they cannot let happen again in 2024.
2011: Vancouver Canucks
Opponent: Boston Bruins
Pre-series Elo win probability: 64.1%
Series sequence: WWLLWLL
Game 7 location: Home
Game 7 win probability: 62.8%
Of all the Canadian losses in the Stanley Cup Final during the drought, this was probably the one that most got away. The Canucks were the better team during the regular season, and they had leads of 2-0 and 3-2 in this series. Goalie Roberto Luongo seemingly shook off his reputation for not being able to win The Big One with a 1-0 shutout in Game 5 to push Boston to the brink. But Vancouver went down 4-0 less than 10 minutes into Game 6, setting up a do-or-die finale. Despite playing at home and outshooting the Bruins 37-21, the Canucks’ deficit steadily grew throughout the game, ending in a 4-0 loss. Rioting ensued.
Edmonton’s lesson: Don’t get bullied. Although the Canucks got some of their own dirtiness in during the series — Alex Burrows, for instance, did his best Brad Marchand impression before Marchand had even fully earned his pest reputation — the Bruins were the more physical team and they wore down the Sedin Twins and the offensive-minded Canucks as the series progressed. The Panthers are similarly physical, and the high-flying Oilers can’t get pushed around in Game 7.
2024: Edmonton Oilers
Opponent: Florida Panthers
Pre-series Elo win probability: 45.3%
Series sequence: LLLWWW?
Game 7 location: Road
Game 7 win probability: 39.9%
And so we come down to the finale of the 2024 NHL season. The Oilers have a chance to erase 31 years of Canadian Stanley Cup heartbreak — along with the many Game 7 losses that have fueled it. And they have Connor McDavid on their side, in the middle of arguably the biggest heater of his playoff career. Things are set up for Edmonton to go out and win this thing — but Florida is still at home, and they’re still slight favorites. So will the ghosts of previous Game 7s haunt the Oilers, or will they finally break through? There’s only one way to find out.
Filed under: NHL