NFL Passing Was Down in Week 1. What Does That Mean for the Rest of the Season?

We could be in for one of the worst aerial seasons in a very long time.

New York Giants QB Daniel Jones personified the struggles of NFL signal-callers in Week 1. (Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)

Overall, Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season was pretty entertaining, with an opener that came down to an out-of-bounds toe in Kansas City and a number of other close contests. Sixty-three percent of the week’s games were decided by a touchdown or less, which was tied with 2018 for the eighth-highest share of close games in an opening week since the 1970 merger.

However, one big leaguewide trend that’s less encouraging was the downturn in Week 1 passing production. Teams averaged just 188.3 net yards per game, which was the lowest in an opening week since they posted 185.0 in 1996. It marks the third consecutive year in which Week 1 passing YPG has fallen, dipping by 71 net yards per team, per game from its 2021 figure of 259.0.

One of the big talking points across the NFL last season was already a down year for scoring — the league’s PPG average of 21.8 was the second-lowest it had been since the mid-2000s — and passing YPG was also well down over the past two seasons, compared with where it had been just a handful of years earlier. So naturally, the alarm bells are ringing even more after such a dismal opening week for passers.

And, statistically, that’s a justified concern.