Patrick Mahomes Is Literally Impossible to Stop When You Need to Stop Him
Super Bowl LVIII proved once again that Mahomes is the undisputed king of the must-score drive.
In the wake of the Kansas City Chiefs’ latest Super Bowl victory on Sunday night, I marveled at Patrick Mahomes’ ability to cast aside all other factors and make you pay for betting against him. And one of the biggest reasons why he’s able to do that? He has literally been unstoppable in situations where the Chiefs are driving late in a close game and must score.
Let’s put some numbers on that claim. Since the 2001 season, 56 quarterbacks have led 125 drives in the playoffs in which:
It was the fourth quarter or overtime;
The drive ended with under a minute left to play;
And the offensive team was either tied or trailed by 7 points or fewer going into the drive.
Of those 125 drives, only 50 (or 40%) saw the offensive team score what they needed to either tie the game or take the lead. Great QBs tended to have better success rates than average in those situations; Tom Brady, for instance, went 5-for-11 (46%), while Drew Brees went 3-for-6 (50%) and Aaron Rodgers was 3-for-4 (75%). Josh Allen and Jeff Garcia each went a perfect 2-for-2 in their drives.
But only one QB has been an absolute outlier of perfection in this statistic:
In his playoff career, Mahomes is 7-for-7 (100%) in those situations — including both the game-tying drive at the end of regulation and the game-winning drive in overtime on Sunday night. The average QB in our sample led his team to 1.7 points per drive; Mahomes has led the Chiefs to 3.4.
He’s done quick-strike drives, such as the famous 13-second game-tying sprint against the Buffalo Bills in the 2021-22 playoffs. He’s managed longer ones, too, including the five-minute game-winning march versus the Eagles in last year’s Super Bowl. And the crown jewel might have been his 13-play, 75-yard, seven-plus minute masterclass in overtime on Sunday, during which Mahomes went a perfect 8-for-8 with 42 yards and the game-winning TD in the air while tacking on another 27 yards with his legs.
It was the stuff of myths and fables, adding to the real-life legend of Mahomes — the man that your defense cannot stop when they absolutely need to. Yes, K.C.’s QB still has a long way to go before he matches Brady’s overall GOAT resume — but in terms of being a cold-blooded winning machine in the big moments that every QB lives for, we’ve never seen anyone as ruthlessly effective as Mahomes is.
Filed under: NFL, Super Bowl, Statgeekery