What Could Break MLB Contenders' World Series Hopes?

Examining each favorite's biggest statistical roadblocks on the path to October.

The MLB postseason is just a shade under 3 weeks away now, and while there are a few playoff races left to be settled, most of the postseason field is all but locked in already. According to my composite odds, 10 teams had on Wednesday at least a 90 percent chance to make the playoffs, with another — Minnesota — clocking in above 80 percent. Only the Braves (66 percent) and Mets (45 percent) were in that liminal space between 15 and 80 percent playoff odds.

That means we can start to look ahead to the playoffs, and how each contender might make a run at the World Series… or fall short. In this post, let’s run through all of the teams with at least a 15 percent playoff probability — sorry, Detroit Tigers — and list off where they’ve been the worst all season, and whether that could be a problem in October.

(Note: All stats in this story are as of Wednesday AM, September 11.)

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⚾ Los Angeles Dodgers (17% WS odds)

Biggest Weakness: Starting pitching (17th in WAR).

In part because of their massive injury problems, the Dodgers have struggled to find a consistent rotation all season. Only three pitchers have logged more than 15 starts for them — and two of those (Gavin Stone, Tyler Glasnow) are currently on the IL while the other (James Paxton) hasn’t been on the team since late July. Bobby Miller and Walker Buehler, both of whom have been very good in the past, were terrible as they worked their way back from injuries, while Clayton Kershaw hasn’t added much in his seven starts. It’s really tough to look ahead to the postseason as favorites when you only have one pitcher (Glasnow) on pace for 3 WAR and he’s out with elbow tendinitis.

Has it been better recently? Not especially — but there is still hope. L.A.’s ranking in starter ERA has actually dropped to 24th over the past 30 days, although one would think it has to get better soon with IL returns like Yoshinobu Yamamoto (who had 8 Ks in his first game back Tuesday) and more starts from deadline pickup Jack Flaherty, who has a 2.61 ERA in Dodger blue.

⚾ Philadelphia Phillies (14% WS odds)

Biggest Weakness: Outfield production (20th in WAR).