Who Added (Or Subtracted) the Most at the NBA Trade Deadline?
Breaking down the stretch-run winners and losers in a deadline that lacked huge fireworks.
Anyone hoping to see any vaguely big names — such as Dejounte Murray or Andrew Wiggins — find new teams at the NBA trade deadline came away feeling disappointed on Thursday afternoon. According to my Estimated RAPTOR Wins Above Replacement (WAR) metric, the best player on the move within a week of the deadline was new Philadelphia 76ers guard Buddy Hield — a fine player, to be sure, but not exactly a massive difference-maker.
But with the help of Spotrac, I was keeping track of every deal made on and around the deadline. Going back to Dec. 30’s Knicks-Raptors deal for OG Anunoby, here are the teams that added (or subtracted) the most net 2023-24 WAR per 82 team games in the six-ish weeks leading up to the deadline:
One of my favorite ways to present this type of accounting (value-in, value-out) is to plot net WAR added against playoff odds, to get a sense of whether the teams adding talent aligned with our notions of who would be a buyer or seller based on their prospects for the rest of this season. Here’s that chart:
A few observations on this year’s deadline:
The Sixers are going to try to make the best of this season, regardless of what happens with Joel Embiid’s knee injury. Highlighted by Hield, who is an extremely talented shooter, no team added more net WAR at the deadline than Philly.
Dallas made some shrewd pickups. Center Daniel Gafford isn’t a huge name outside of my adopted home state of Arkansas, but he’s an efficient rebounder/rim protector type with a +0.4 eRAPTOR this season. Combine that with jettisoning Grant Williams and his -1.4 WAR per 82, and the Mavs came out ahead in my accounting at the deadline.
The Knicks also added a decent amount of talent — picking up Alec Burks and Bojan Bogdanović today — and that’s particularly true if we include the tremendous fit that Anunoby has been for them since arriving in NYC. I wrote in early December that this Knicks team might actually be for real, and I stand by that take more now than ever.
The Utah Jazz were mostly sellers — though they did keep Jordan Clarkson — and that wasn’t totally surprising given how their recent form has leveled off some. As I wrote a few weeks back, Utah is in one of the NBA’s most fascinating spots, with the flexibility to either build around what they have for the future, make a push for the playoffs this year, or something in between.
After much speculation that the Thunder needed to add another veteran piece to maximize their playoff potential, they ended up reeling in Gordon Hayward from the Hornets at the deadline. Hayward is a solid addition who can score and handle the ball, but I’m curious how much his presence — and his 29 previous playoff games played — does to address OKC’s historic lack of postseason experience for a top contender.
A number of the top teams decided to stand pat at the deadline. Among teams with at least a 90% playoff probability, the Celtics, Clippers, Cavaliers, Nuggets, Pelicans, Timberwolves and Bucks all added or subtracted +/- 0.5 net WAR per 82 games at the deadline. And still others who might have designs on contending despite poor playoff odds (i.e., the Warriors and Lakers) were in roughly the same boat.
As much as the deadline itself was sleepier than usual, this year’s buyout market could be interesting. A handful of players who were acquired on or around the deadline either have already been waived by their new teams or are expected to be — think Spencer Dinwiddie, Kyle Lowry, Seth Curry, Joe Harris, etc. — and depending on who is available, those pickups could end up filling in gaps for the contenders above who didn’t add much or anything of note at the deadline itself.
Filed under: NBA
Good post. Two questions.
1. Is it plausible to you that Brad added Xavier Tillman because last year's numbers (in a functional Ja-led Grizzlies offense) were much better? Would you bet that X's current numbers hold roughly constant, or he can revert to form with Celts?
2. How often do the #7 and #8 role players make the diff in NBA Finals?
It seemed the 2008 Celts needed PJ and Posey. The 2009 and 2010 Celts didn't win because Bynum overpowered them (even as Kobe was chucking bricks). They lost PJ (and Perk).
Perhaps the 2024 Celts are in a similar position. Versus Nuggets and Bucks, it was ugly. Barkley says "soft." A functional Tillman may be a marginal matchup-based upgrade when that's precisely what we needed!