The 2011 Finals Sabotaged LeBron’s GOAT Case before It Had a Chance
We can quibble around the margins of LeBron James' all-time résumé, but his flop in the 2011 NBA Finals cost him more than he can add back.
Litigating the GOAT debate between LeBron James and Michael Jordan is a pastime that basketball fans will never tire of. Both players are the defining superstars of their eras, and both influenced the future of the sport in ways we’re still unpacking to this day. They’re also probably Nos. 1-2 in the NBA’s modern era in terms of statistical performance — with apologies to so many other greats who overlapped the same range of years, from Kareem, Magic and Larry to Kobe, Shaq and Duncan.
But as much as James and his backers are done with the ‘90s, frustrated that their pursuit of GOATdom is like chasing a ghost, LeBron has never quite been able to build a straightforward argument to dethrone MJ. Instead, they have to resort to what
accurately describes as clever rhetorical tricks: Casting cross-era doubt on Jordan’s competition, claiming he didn’t have a left hand1 or downplaying the legitimacy of his awards.(Yes, LeBron does also have at least one impressive Big Number on Jordan: the all-time NBA scoring record, more than 8,100 points clear of MJ. But unfortunately, compiling a counting stat just never had the same impact in basketball that it has in a sport like baseball.)
The sleight-of-hand tactics are necessary because Jordan owns the real headline comparison: He’s 6-0 in the Finals, compared with James’ 4-6 mark. Up against that, LeBron is perpetually playing from behind, simply trying to cut into MJ’s lead. But it didn’t need to be quite so lopsided.
Even now, after the Warriors had their dynasty in the middle of what was supposed to be LeBron’s Jordan Era, James could have made a case that his Finals record was actually quite impressive — perhaps even the equal of Jordan’s, if we account for the strength of his opponents. But though we didn’t fully understand it at the time, the 2011 NBA Finals were the pivot point in that aspect of James’ GOAT case.
Most (non-hater) fans give LeBron’s 2007 Finals appearance — a sweep at the hands of the Spurs’ dynasty — more of a pass, as it required a miracle to have even happened in the first place:
James was 22 then; Jordan didn’t make his first Finals until age 27 anyway. Being outclassed by Duncan, Manu Ginóbili, Tony Parker and Gregg Popovich as a young supernova of a player — while lining up alongside Drew Gooden and Boobie Gibson — isn’t necessarily an indictment, considering the Elo ratings gave Cleveland just a 28 percent chance of winning before the series.
But everything was different by 2011. James had left Cleveland on national TV, teaming up with future Hall of Famers Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh in Miami. LeBron went from loved to hated; in retrospect, he had just single-handedly ushered in the NBA’s so-called player empowerment era, for better and for worse. He also placed immense pressure on himself and his team to succeed right away — and to keep winning.
To LeBron’s credit, the Heat were living up to the hype through the East playoffs, winning the conference with a breezy 12-3 record. Going into the Finals against a Dallas Mavericks team that was 3.5 points of net rating worse during the regular season, Elo gave Miami a 56 percent chance to win before the series.2 Victory would have put LeBron’s career Finals record at .500, and set him up to build on it in the years to come.
Instead, the Heat fell in six games, including three consecutive losses to close out the series. James averaged a Game Score of 13.7 in the series, lower than both Wade and Dirk Nowitzki, and only narrowly better than Jason Terry (13.4). It was 26 percent lower than any average Game Score Jordan ever produced in any Finals throughout his career:
Unlike in 2007, there were no passes to be given, no grace to be afforded James and his team. It was a brutal failure on the game’s most important stage.
To James’ credit, he responded to the defeat by working harder and getting better. He turned into a different and more effective all-around player, rallied the Heat to win each of the next two titles (they were actually underdogs against OKC in 2012, something that has been completely forgotten over the years), helped pull off the most improbable comeback in major North American pro sports history and eventually became the first player ever to win Finals MVP with three different franchises.
In other words, he willed himself into the GOAT debate in spite of an upset loss that should probably have been disqualifying.
But there’s a big difference between starting the conversation and actually winning the debate. James has been trying to make up for that 2011 Finals loss since the day it happened, and he can’t quite do it. The irony is that, if we toss out the 2007 Finals loss (for the reasons we mentioned) and have the Heat win the 2011 Finals instead of losing, James would have narrowly edged out Jordan’s career Finals probability added (+1.88) by winning the 2020 title with the Lakers:
Obviously, championship rings are practically as much about a player’s teammates as his own skills. And there is more to a player’s career than ring-counting — or at least, there should be. But in the minds of most fans, rings are the most important factor in the GOAT debate, even if they are adjusted for various factors.
When you make those adjustments, James’ losing record in the Finals isn’t as bad as it seems. But it’s not as good as Jordan’s, which is a big hurdle to overcome when comparing the legends head-to-head. And for James, a lot of that comes back to the Finals that got away in 2011, the only time LeBron’s team was favored going into the championship round and lost.
If the Heat win that series, a lot of things in NBA history probably play out differently — not least of which being the way James and his backers can argue his case against Jordan as the greatest.
Filed under: NBA
Which is one of the most idiotic pieces of trolling in sports history; Jordan’s SIGNATURE PLAY (the “spectacular move”) literally involved a lefty finish. This meme should be Exhibit A when we talk about TikTok brain rot.
Which was actually lower than the implied odds from the betting markets, which set Miami as a 62 percent favorite.
Is there any method that can estimate Bill Russell's championship probability added?
LeBron is a modern day Sisyphus...with he and his media enablers pushing their pro-LeBron (now craven and increasingly desperate anti-Jordan) boulder up the mountain so hard every year as eternity ruthlessly marches on..."LA got Westbrook!"..."LA quietly won the offseason again people!!"..."LA won the inaugural play-in tournament. That banner counts!!"..."Darvin Ham is so perfect for LeBron at this stage of his career!!"...all to no avail as the postseason arrives.
That, and then the supposedly more media savvy LeBron was checkmated by The Last Dance dropping at the outset of the Pandemic to remind new generations - repeatedly - of the prior greater monarchy and the need to please be kind and rewind. So guess who suddenly decided to film their own doc?
Like Wile E. Coyote, always chasing...but never catching. Beep beep.
When LeBron arrived in Los Angeles the media instructed the public that at least three championships awaited. As Magic Johnson reminded everyone as Wilbon dutifully giggled at his side, that's what LA does. Six years later, only an asterisk remains after LeBron was afforded nearly 5 months to rest during the Pandemic before that run.
That led to sudden but predictable annual late season ankle and difficult to resolve soft tissue injuries that reduced his playing time each year as the postseason approached...but don't call it load management. That's bad for the competitor brand.
Sports greatness is so often defined less by what you do, and more by how you look doing it. Aesthetics and iconic moments matter. Just say "Michael Jordan" and the reel of legendary - unbelievable - moments starts rolling in your head. Say "LeBron James" and you think of the date on his birth certificate as images of Ray Allen from the corner fills your head. Jordan was so iconic that at one point there was even a strong push to replace Jerry West as the NBA logo with Michael's image.
Eternity is a long time, but it's July and the boulder awaits at the bottom as Michael's image sits atop the mountain.