What We’ve Learned in the First Third of the 2024 NASCAR Season
A look at what's been confirmed — and what's surprised us — so far in this Cup Series season.
Pocono Raceway is, famously, a three-turn track — it even says “What turn 4?” on the wall. And if the 2024 NASCAR season was a lap at Pocono, we’d be rounding the first turn right now. So with 12 of 36 races in the books, let’s dig into the lessons we’ve learned so far, and what trends have defied what we thought we knew going into the year.
Close finishes are here to stay
One of the top storylines early in 2024 has been the prevalence of historically close race finishes. First, at the Atlanta Motor Speedway in February, Daniel Suarez beat Ryan Blaney and Kyle Busch by 0.003 seconds in a three-wide photo finish that was reminiscent of the movie Cars. Then, last week’s Kansas race somehow shaved the margin down to 0.001 seconds between Kyle Larson and Chris Buescher, giving us literally the closest finish in Cup Series history:
The next-gen car has gotten its share of criticism for performance at short tracks, as well as the way aero-blocking and the new rearview cameras can be used to defend a lead at certain tracks. But at the same time, it has also yielded two of the four closest finishes — and three of the Top 16 — in NASCAR history, which is nothing to sneeze at.
Larson is the class of the field
From nearly the moment he first got into a Cup Series car, Larson has been one of the best drivers in the sport, culminating in a 2021 championship campaign (10 wins, 20 Top 5s, 26 Top 10s and a 244 Pts+ index) that should go down as one of the most dominant seasons in NASCAR history. But the past couple of years in the Next Gen car, Larson has been merely great, not out-of-this-world dominant.
So far this season, however, he is heading back in the direction of that 2021 form. He has two wins and six Top 5s in 12 races, with a 201 Pts+ index — tops among all drivers this season (William Byron is second at 184), and the first 200+ index season since Larson and Denny Hamlin in that 2021 season.
There’s no guarantee Larson will go on to win the title — only 7 of 18 top drivers on our list above have won the title in NASCAR’s playoff era — but he is starting off as dominant a season as we’ve seen in the Next Gen era.
The playoff race is going to be brutal
Seven different drivers have gotten wins through the first 12 races of the season, which is the fewest at this point in a season since 2020. That means there is potentially more space for drivers to make the playoffs by finishing among the remaining slots1 on points by Round 26, the playoff cut-off race in Darlington on Sept. 1.
But still, at least a few good drivers will likely be on the outside looking in. With an assist from my Adjusted Pts+ Index stat (where 100 is average), here’s a breakdown of the playoff picture with 14 races to go before the cut-off:
The guys on the left side are secure, having won their way in. The guys on the right, however, have more work to do. Martin Truex Jr. and the drivers immediately below him are still probably in good shape, with a healthy cushion over the cut-line in the points. But those on the edge — and right below it — are in for a dogfight.
Among the drivers above the line, Brad Keselowski has been driving well and seems like he will get a win eventually, or at the very least rise in the points if he can cut out the horrendous finishes. (He has only been running at the end of 83% of races this season, down from 92% last year.) But Kyle Busch and especially Chase Briscoe could be vulnerable. And among those under the line, solid-as-always Bubba Wallace and the resurgent Noah Gragson look best by Pts+ — ahead of a very average-looking 2022 Cup Series champ, Joey Logano.
The Ty Gibbs breakout is here — and so are the Gragson/Bowman bounce-backs
Before the season, I pegged Joe Gibbs Racing’s Ty Gibbs2 as a breakout playoff candidate — and, indeed, he has been one of this season’s most improved drivers in terms of year-over-year Pts+ change:
Gibbs still hasn’t won his first Cup Series race yet, but he does have three Top 5s and six Top 10s in 12 races, so it’s only a matter of time.
Even more striking than the breakout of Gibbs, though, are the two resurgent names at the top of the list above. Gragson was coming off one of the most disastrous individual seasons in recent memory, but he has responded by cutting out the off-track nonsense and driving well for an SHR team that, while nowhere near what it used to be, hasn’t fallen as far as I thought it might.
And then there’s Alex Bowman, about whom I said: “time is running out for [him] to reach his potential in the 48 car.” While he also has yet to win this season, he has performed much more in line with what we expect from a Hendrick car, nabbing four Top 5s and seven Top 10s. Bowman is still the team’s fourth wheel, but not the liability he was a year ago.
Logano and Busch might be on the decline
On the flip-side of the ranking above, we have the biggest dips in Pts+ since last season:
This list is a very mixed bag. Logano and Busch and former champions who are getting older — Joey is 34; Kyle is 39 — and might be slowing down, though each remains an above-average performer. It also bears mentioning that Penske, beset by problems all around, doesn’t quite seem to be the championship outfit it has been in years past, while Childress continues its multi-season slide with just two Top 5s in 12 races.
We also have drivers who were coming off unexpectedly solid seasons and have fallen back — I’m looking at both Michael McDowell and Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. in that regard — and guys like Justin Haley and Josh Berry, who seemed to be gaining career momentum last year, but have seen that be stopped cold. And speaking of Childress… Austin Dillon is showing us that even if we think things can’t get worse, they always can.
Chase Elliott is back, and more odds-and-ends
I’ll go rapid-fire style for these last few points…
After a year spent waiting for Chase Elliott to finally win again, he got to the winner’s circle at Texas in mid-April. That probably won’t end up being a one-off: Elliott is posting his best Pts+ since 2021, and with five Top 5s in 12 races, he looks much more like the dominant force that won the 2020 championship.
It really might be “The Year” for Denny Hamlin! Hamlin is almost certainly the best driver in history to never win a title, but he is locked into the playoffs and has the same Pts+ as last year — a season when he narrowly missed the Championship 4. Love or hate him, he’s going to be every bit as much a threat to win this year as ever.
Truex is tracking for one of NASCAR’s all-time winless seasons if he doesn’t take a checkered flag soon. Here’s a list of the best modern (since 1972) winless seasons with a minimum of 10 starts:
The best drivers and teams seem to be figuring out the Next Gen car. Take a look back at our “most improved” table from above: After Gragson, Bowman and Gibbs are Larson, Elliott, Truex and Tyler Reddick — elite drivers who were already driving at a high level, yet they’ve all gotten even better this year.
I’ve noticed that, after the introduction of the Next Gen in 2022, the range of Pts+ numbers became very compressed; parity was introduced to the sport as everyone adapted to the new technology. (Remember, neither ‘22 or ‘23 produced a Pts+ leader with an index of 200.) But now things are spreading out again, with the best drivers becoming more dominant, which will probably mean the rich get richer.
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That’s nine spots, for now — but at least a few additional drivers will probably win races by the time the playoff cut-off rolls around.
Yes, he is the team owner’s grandson. The nepotism is real in NASCAR!