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🏀 2025-26 NBA Elo Forecast and Player Ratings 📈
Track how I'm forecasting every team’s chance to make — and win — the NBA Finals, all season long.
16 hrs ago
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Neil Paine
47
17
Bam Adebayo's 83-Point Game Lacked Mythology More Than Legitimacy
Most record pursuits are manufactured. We just overlook it when they fit a player's larger narrative — something Adebayo's night didn't.
Mar 13
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Neil Paine
17
1
1
The Celtics Are Thriving Without Jayson Tatum. That’s Why His Return Could Get Complicated.
Boston lost an MVP candidate and stayed a Top-3 Net Rating team anyway — turning what should be a simple upgrade into something more delicate.
Feb 24
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Neil Paine
14
2
The NBA Knows How to End Tanking — But It May Not Want To
Severing the link between draft order and record would curb incentives to tank overnight. But doing so might cost the league something it values more.
Feb 17
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Neil Paine
15
8
1
The NBA Trade Deadline Was Deeply Weird
Despite a flurry of deals, this year's moves were strangely disconnected from any meaningful boost to teams' title chances.
Feb 11
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Neil Paine
12
2
1
Who Would Get the Most Out of a Trade-Deadline Upgrade?
The NBA trade deadline is on Thursday afternoon, and some teams could benefit from adding talent more than others.
Feb 4
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Neil Paine
10
1
The Bucks' Giannis Antetokounmpo Era Is Ending Not With a Bang, But a Whimper
A possible trade-deadline breakup would end an era in Milwaukee — though the final act shouldn't overshadow a rare partnership between a small-market…
Jan 28
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Neil Paine
21
1
3
What Would a Championship Version of Trae Young Look Like?
As trade talks swirl, let's look at why Young’s offense-first profile has proven so hard to build around — and what would need to change for him to play…
Jan 7
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Neil Paine
9
2
The Chiefs Are Doing the Weirdest "Relocation" in Pro Sports History
Is it a short commute of a stadium-switch or a full-blown franchise move? Yes.
Dec 30, 2025
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Neil Paine
6
2
2
The Spurs Have Suddenly Made the Thunder's Title Defense a Lot More Interesting
OKC still looks like a dynasty-in-waiting — but Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs have exposed a matchup problem that history says can’t be ignored in the…
Dec 29, 2025
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Neil Paine
11
1
How the NFL Grinch Stole the NBA's Christmas
For decades, Christmas belonged to the NBA — until football realized the old rules of the sports calendar no longer mattered.
Dec 23, 2025
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Neil Paine
18
3
2
The Knicks and Spurs Meet Again, at the Edge of an NBA Era
The NBA Cup Final revives a familiar matchup — and a familiar dynamic — from the 1999 Finals, when San Antonio's future collided with New York's…
Dec 16, 2025
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Neil Paine
14
1
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