📈2024 NFL Elo Ratings and Projections🏈
Power ratings, rankings and forecasts for every NFL team this season.
The following table is a list of NFL teams with their Elo ratings and projected wins for the 2024 season. (Note: This is basic Elo, so no adjustments for quarterbacks, etc. for the moment.) Season simulations (complete with tie-breakers!) were made possible by the amazing nflseedR package for R.
I also have a tab in the chart containing an SRS-like projected rating of team offense and defense that I will update to reflect in-season results as they come in.1 Scroll further down for projections of upcoming games. And you can find last year’s Elo rankings page here.
Table of Contents
2024-25 NFL Playoff Predictor (✨New!✨)
🏈 2024-25 NFL Playoff Predictor 🏆
🏈 2024 NFL Elo rankings, win projections and team ratings 📈
🏈 Upcoming NFL games 👀
🏈 2024 NFL QB EPA ratings
Filed under: NFL, Elo ratings, Statgeekery, Updating models
Some of the marginally fancy extra bells and whistles for this SRS version include specific offensive and defensive regression-to-the-mean and home-field advantage factors, and extra weight for playoff games (with less weight applied to the final week of the regular season, when many teams rest players).
The plan is to blend the preseason prior with in-season SRS as games are played, which should also result in a greater spread of team ratings than in preseason (when we don’t know enough about the teams yet).
Hi Neil,
First of all, I want to say that your work has been outstanding. While experimenting with ELO probabilities, I came across your predictions, and I wanted to ask for some clarification.
How do you calculate win probabilities for each match? Is it based on ELO rankings? I tried to calculate it using the following simple formula, taking Cowboys vs. Steelers as an example:
Visitors (Cowboys) = 1 / (1 + 10^((Local ELO 1571 - Visitor ELO 1554) / 400)) = 47.56%
Local (Steelers) = 1 / (1 + 10^((Visitor ELO 1554 - Local ELO 1571) / 400)) = 52.44%
As you can see, there is a significant difference compared to your win probability prediction, which is:
Cowboys 39%
Steelers 61%
This is a big huge difference, as I’ve been using the ELO method to beat sportsbooks, and while it has been successful so far, it has also been quite slow.
Regards
It looks like one of the biggest discrepancies is the Jets, whom you have as a bottom 10 team and a double-digit underdog week 1, vs. Vegas has them as a top 10-12 team and only a 4.5 underdog week 1. Are ELO ratings not accounting for Rodgers being back, and/or lower on the defense? Maybe worth mentioning a lot of people have said they believe the Jets defense stopped playing at its highest level last year after they were eliminated from playoff contention and had the worst offense in the league week in and week out.