It looks like one of the biggest discrepancies is the Jets, whom you have as a bottom 10 team and a double-digit underdog week 1, vs. Vegas has them as a top 10-12 team and only a 4.5 underdog week 1. Are ELO ratings not accounting for Rodgers being back, and/or lower on the defense? Maybe worth mentioning a lot of people have said they believe the Jets defense stopped playing at its highest level last year after they were eliminated from playoff contention and had the worst offense in the league week in and week out.
Yeah, that makes sense -- these have no QB adjustment, so it doesn't know Rodgers is coming back (although I will point back to something I wrote last year, when he was a year younger and hadn't yet been injured, about how few QBs were viable at such an age: https://neilpaine.substack.com/i/136821390/aaron-rodgers-age-on-dec)
Cool makes sense. And yeah I’m lower on current Rodgers than consensus as well, just wanted to check whether ELO was even lower than I, or just didn’t have a QB adjustment haha.
I've been wanting to get that QB adjustment going again, but it's a lot to stay on top of. I used to maintain the QB depth charts for every team when I was at 538, but that was before I started running this Substack and all of the other stuff. It would also be interesting to see how to implement such a system in NFLseedR... I've just started playing around with the basics of it, and it's very cool, but idk if there's a mechanism to tell it that a certain QB will be available by a particular week and adjust the team's rating that way.
It looks like one of the biggest discrepancies is the Jets, whom you have as a bottom 10 team and a double-digit underdog week 1, vs. Vegas has them as a top 10-12 team and only a 4.5 underdog week 1. Are ELO ratings not accounting for Rodgers being back, and/or lower on the defense? Maybe worth mentioning a lot of people have said they believe the Jets defense stopped playing at its highest level last year after they were eliminated from playoff contention and had the worst offense in the league week in and week out.
Yeah, that makes sense -- these have no QB adjustment, so it doesn't know Rodgers is coming back (although I will point back to something I wrote last year, when he was a year younger and hadn't yet been injured, about how few QBs were viable at such an age: https://neilpaine.substack.com/i/136821390/aaron-rodgers-age-on-dec)
Cool makes sense. And yeah I’m lower on current Rodgers than consensus as well, just wanted to check whether ELO was even lower than I, or just didn’t have a QB adjustment haha.
I've been wanting to get that QB adjustment going again, but it's a lot to stay on top of. I used to maintain the QB depth charts for every team when I was at 538, but that was before I started running this Substack and all of the other stuff. It would also be interesting to see how to implement such a system in NFLseedR... I've just started playing around with the basics of it, and it's very cool, but idk if there's a mechanism to tell it that a certain QB will be available by a particular week and adjust the team's rating that way.