📈2024 NFL Elo Ratings and Projections🏈
Power ratings, rankings and forecasts for every NFL team this season.
The following table is a list of NFL teams with their Elo ratings and projected wins for the 2024 season. (Note: This is basic Elo, so no adjustments for quarterbacks, etc. for the moment.) Season simulations (complete with tie-breakers!) were made possible by the amazing nflseedR package for R.
I’m also experimenting with a tab in the chart containing an SRS-like projected rating of team offense and defense that I hope to update to reflect in-season results as they come in.1 Scroll further down for projections of upcoming games. And you can find last year’s Elo rankings page here.
Table of Contents
🏈 2024 NFL Elo rankings, win projections and team ratings 📈
🏈 Upcoming NFL games 👀
Filed under: NFL, Elo ratings, Statgeekery, Updating models
Some of the marginally fancy extra bells and whistles for this SRS version include specific offensive and defensive regression-to-the-mean and home-field advantage factors, and extra weight for playoff games (with less weight applied to the final week of the regular season, when many teams rest players).
The plan is to blend the preseason prior with in-season SRS as games are played, which should also result in a greater spread of team ratings than in preseason (when we don’t know enough about the teams yet).
It looks like one of the biggest discrepancies is the Jets, whom you have as a bottom 10 team and a double-digit underdog week 1, vs. Vegas has them as a top 10-12 team and only a 4.5 underdog week 1. Are ELO ratings not accounting for Rodgers being back, and/or lower on the defense? Maybe worth mentioning a lot of people have said they believe the Jets defense stopped playing at its highest level last year after they were eliminated from playoff contention and had the worst offense in the league week in and week out.