Do you miss the old FiveThirtyEight RAPTOR ratings? I sure do. But while those are no longer updating via Disney (I don’t know their long-term future fate), I have taken it upon myself to create the next best thing — a more basic version of RAPTOR that uses pace-adjusted box-score and on-vs-off data to estimate what the more full-fledged model (with player tracking/etc) would have said about a player.
You absolute legend - I was devastated to learn Disney had pulled the plug on RAPTOR, and a desperate, borderline hopeless Google search brought me here. This is exactly what I was looking for.
I've done enough social science to regard a correlation of .89 as extraordinary, and if you care to update your spreadsheet regularly I anticipate I will be using it a LOT this season - at least until the real thing gets back up and running. Thank you!!
Your accuracy on guard defense will improve massively if you can include just one more variable: offensive fouls drawn. Without it, you are missing one of the primary defensive statistics that correlates with RAPM. The direct value is ending the opponent possession is substantial, and the value in the RAPTOR regression exceeds the direct value of drawing the offensive foul.
Do some of the ratings systems tend to overrate players on good teams and underrate players on so-so teams? For instance, the Mavs' Dereck Lively has an EPM of 1.7 while the Bulls' DeMar DeRozan has an EPM of 0.9 and there is no way Lively is having a better season than DeRozan.
Dec 30, 2023·edited Dec 30, 2023Liked by Neil Paine
Hi Neil, love what you've done here. One question: why doesn't the TOTal RAPTOR column correspond more closely with WAR/82? For example Jamal Murray and Anthony Davis are both +4.1 in TOT, but AD's WAR/82 is twice as high as Murray's. I would have expected these two metrics to correspond much more closely.
Thanks Neil! I'm curious whether you think taking out the player tracking has a big negative effect on Jokic, or if it's just reflective of his (relatively) worse play this season. Haven't seen him not leading the Raptor board by a mile in about 3 years
I'd love any feedback or ideas for how to make it better.
[This is my first time making a streamlit app (was a lot of fun!) and I haven't coded anything in 5 years... so if you're looking for something crazy... I'm probably not your guy!]
A view of how the RAPTOR varies between games played at home vs on the road would be nice if possible. Glad to find something working in replacement to 538's RAPTOR.
You absolute legend - I was devastated to learn Disney had pulled the plug on RAPTOR, and a desperate, borderline hopeless Google search brought me here. This is exactly what I was looking for.
I've done enough social science to regard a correlation of .89 as extraordinary, and if you care to update your spreadsheet regularly I anticipate I will be using it a LOT this season - at least until the real thing gets back up and running. Thank you!!
Thank you, this is awesome! Is there any way to sort by highest and lowest raptor by player for only the current season?
Neil--thanks for this! But do you have team totals, too? If so, I'll be glad to subscribe! Let me know at dreysamuelson3@gmail.com
Your accuracy on guard defense will improve massively if you can include just one more variable: offensive fouls drawn. Without it, you are missing one of the primary defensive statistics that correlates with RAPM. The direct value is ending the opponent possession is substantial, and the value in the RAPTOR regression exceeds the direct value of drawing the offensive foul.
So excited to see this. Thanks for putting this together.
Great stuff, Neil. Thank you
Do some of the ratings systems tend to overrate players on good teams and underrate players on so-so teams? For instance, the Mavs' Dereck Lively has an EPM of 1.7 while the Bulls' DeMar DeRozan has an EPM of 0.9 and there is no way Lively is having a better season than DeRozan.
Would you be able to elaborate more on your process re: recreating 97-2013 RAPTOR via regression, or is that going to remain a closely-guarded secret?
Hi Neil, love what you've done here. One question: why doesn't the TOTal RAPTOR column correspond more closely with WAR/82? For example Jamal Murray and Anthony Davis are both +4.1 in TOT, but AD's WAR/82 is twice as high as Murray's. I would have expected these two metrics to correspond much more closely.
Thank you! Where can I find the odds for each game as it was implemented on 538?
Thanks Neil! I'm curious whether you think taking out the player tracking has a big negative effect on Jokic, or if it's just reflective of his (relatively) worse play this season. Haven't seen him not leading the Raptor board by a mile in about 3 years
Hi all - I put together a streamlit app to help visualize the data: https://eraptorviz.streamlit.app/
I'd love any feedback or ideas for how to make it better.
[This is my first time making a streamlit app (was a lot of fun!) and I haven't coded anything in 5 years... so if you're looking for something crazy... I'm probably not your guy!]
How would you summarize the difference between this RAPTOR model and your model over at the Messenger?
Interesting, thank you for that.
A view of how the RAPTOR varies between games played at home vs on the road would be nice if possible. Glad to find something working in replacement to 538's RAPTOR.