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Happy Monday, and welcome to another week in sports! After a few marathon days of World Cup group-stage finales on Friday and Saturday, Sunday felt a bit light in volume — just one soccer match to go with the usual baseball, WNBA, golf and auto racing — but Canada and South Africa made it count with a thriller decided in stoppage time. Now we’ll be back to lots of World Cup matches that mean more than ever — so we’ll break down what’s at stake and who is trending up or down below. And speaking of auto racing, our chart spotlight today looks at a GOAT who’s getting even better. Plus, we can’t wait for the WNBA Commissioner’s Cup later this week, as well as the official start of Wimbledon, because the sports calendar never lets up. Here’s what it has in store today:
🗓️ TONIGHT’S DANCE
The Main Events
All listed times are Eastern. 🚨= Elimination game
Soccer:
⚽ World Cup: Brazil (57%) vs. Japan (20%) - 1 p.m. (FOX/Tele/Peacock) 🚨
⚽ World Cup: Germany (74%) vs. Paraguay (10%) - 4:30 p.m. (FS1/Tele/Peacock) 🚨
⚽ World Cup: Netherlands (44%) vs. Morocco (28%) - 9 p.m. (FOX/Tele/Peacock) 🚨
⚽ World Cup odds: Argentina 32% to win
MLB:
⚾ Pirates (51%) at Phillies (49%) - 6:40 p.m. (MLB.tv)
⚾ Padres (41%) at Cubs (59%) - 8:05 p.m. (MLB.tv)
⚾ Dodgers (52%) at Athletics (48%) - 9:40 p.m. (MLB.tv)
⚾ Championship check-in: Dodgers 30% to win World Series
WNBA:
🏀 No games. (Commissioner’s Cup Final between Aces and Liberty is on 6/30)
🏀 Championship check-in: Lynx 30% to win WNBA title
Tennis:
🎾 Wimbledon, Round 1 (ESPN/ESPN+) - Jannik Sinner 61% (men’s) and Aryna Sabalenka 25% (women’s) to win
🔍 FIND THE EDGE
Survival mode activated
After what felt like (and was) a protracted group stage of the World Cup — it took 17 days from kickoff to the start of the knockouts this year, compared with just 11 days in 2022 — we are finally in the do-or-die, single-elimination knockout phase of the tournament. And let’s be honest: that’s the really fun part of the proceedings here.
Due to the expansion of the 2026 field, the group stage was a little bit anti-climactic in all but a handful of cases, since most of the advancing squads were already known well ahead of the last set of group games late last week and over the weekend. For most top teams, they haven’t truly felt the pressure yet of knowing they absolutely must win a game, or else their run is officially over.
That changes now.
Canada and South Africa already got a taste of that feeling Sunday, with the former defeating the latter on Stephen Eustáquio’s dramatic game-winner in second-half stoppage time. And today, exactly three of the following fairly high-profile teams — Brazil, Japan, Germany, Paraguay, Netherlands and Morocco — will be going home with an early knockout-round exit.
Before that can happen, though, let’s take stock of how the field has been reshuffled by the tournament so far. Here’s a look at whose prediction-market odds have shifted the most since the start of the tournament, conditional upon making the Round of 32. (This should give us a sense of whose stock has risen the most independent of the simple fact that they successfully escaped the group stage.)
One big takeaway is that Argentina and France have dramatically outpaced their pre-World Cup expectations even after accounting for the boost from just surviving the group phase. Lionel Messi and Argentina’s baseline conditional title odds jumped from 9% to 20%, while Kylian Mbappé and the absurdly stacked France squad went from 16% to 23%. Both were known to be dangerous, but they have emerged to look much more so now that we’ve seen them in action.
Others looking a lot better for deep tournament runs? The Netherlands, Colombia, Mexico and the US, each of whom is up 2 percentage points in their odds to make the Final, while England is also up 4 points in its odds to make the semifinals — though the Three Lions’ conditional odds to make the Final are down because of Argentina’s increased threat on the same side of the bracket.
At the other end of things, the two Iberian sides — Portugal and Spain — have lost 5 points of conditional title odds since the start of play. Portugal survived the groups with a win over Uzbekistan and a couple of draws against DR Congo and Colombia, but they haven’t been as dominant as expected. Spain, on the other hand, is as good as advertised but drew a tough section of the bracket, with the Portugal/Croatia winner looming next after Austria, and a vastly improved Team USA headlining the next “pod” of teams they might face to make the semis.
Japan and Brazil also suffered in their conditional odds, in part on the basis of having to face each other right away — an extremely unfortunate draw that will send one of the Top 13 teams in the world by the Elo ratings home immediately. It’s the cruel reality of knockout-round math, though: two teams enter each game from now on, and only one can leave.
📊 CHART OF THE DAY
S-V-Geez
Another week at the road course, another win for Shane van Gisbergen, who held off Chase Briscoe late to win Sunday’s Toyota / Save Mart 350 at Sonoma Raceway in beautiful California wine country. SVG has now won exactly half (8 of 16) of his career road/street course starts in NASCAR’s Cup Series, which is by far the highest success rate on those tracks for drivers with more than 2 modern-era starts — Tim Richmond, who went 5-for-16, is second at 31.3%. Naturally, SVG is also the all-time career leader in average Driver Rating on twisty tracks at 122.5 — No. 2 is Cale Yarborough at 115.7 — but the scary thing is that van Gisbergen is getting better all the time. His two most recent wins, at Watkins Glen in May and Sonoma this weekend, saw him produce ratings of 148.8 and 148.5, the second- and third-highest marks of his career. Keep in mind that a “perfect” maximum rating is 150.0, so he is getting as close to perfection as ever in his recent runs.
❄️ STAY FROSTY
What else we’re reading
Smart, short reads we liked while building today’s odds.
⚾ “How to Get Fired by the Mets” by me
🏀 “The 13 most and least consistent stars of the 2026 NBA season” by Mike Shearer
⚾ “The Dark Side Of Interleague Play: Did we lose more than we gained?” by Daniel Evensen
🌍 “The Week in International Sport: beach handball, age-grade basketball and Melissa Vargas” by Ben Wylie
🏁 “George Russell wins in Austria to close the Championship gap” by Formula Reports
👀 EYES UP
Next on deck…
Tuesday (6/30)
⚽ World Cup: Ivory Coast vs. Norway / France vs. Sweden / Mexico vs. Ecuador 🚨
⚾ MLB: Tigers at Yankees
🏀 WNBA: Aces at Liberty (Commissioner’s Cup Final) 🏆
🎾 Tennis: Wimbledon, Round 1
Wednesday (7/1)
⚽ World Cup: England vs. DR Congo / Belgium vs. Senegal / USA vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina 🚨
⚾ MLB: Cardinals at Braves
⚾ MLB: Happy Bobby Bonilla Day to those who celebrate 😉
🏀 WNBA: No games.
🎾 Tennis: Wimbledon, Round 2
Thursday (7/2)
⚽ World Cup: Spain vs. Austria / Portugal vs. Croatia / Switzerland vs. Algeria 🚨
⚾ MLB: Padres at Dodgers
🏀 WNBA: Mercury at Storm
🎾 Tennis: Wimbledon, Round 2
⛳ Golf: John Deere Classic (TPC Deere Run - Silvis, IL)
🧠 Looking ahead
Stay tuned for more updates and in-depth analysis of these events and more as they unfold. We’ll be bringing you all the scores, highlights, and expert commentary.
Got a favorite team or sport you want us to cover more? Let us know!
All data current as of time of send.
— by Neil Paine
*Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.