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Welcome back on this Monday in sports, after another incredible weekend of action out on the fields, pitches, courts, courses, and… naval base tarmacs? The World Cup rolled on, so we have a reset of where things currently stand in the tournament below. We also have a note on the US Open, won — for the second time! — by a guy who shares a name with a hotel chain. (We’re still waiting for a young up-and-coming golfer named “Hilton Marriott” to have his breakthrough.) And of course, there’s plenty to check out as the week begins, including a do-or-die Game 3 in the College World Series between North Carolina and Oklahoma tonight:
🗓️ TONIGHT’S DANCE
The Main Events
All listed times are Eastern. 🚨= Elimination game
Soccer:
⚽ World Cup: Argentina (70%) vs. Austria (12%) - 1 p.m. (FOX/Tele/Peacock)
⚽ World Cup: France (91%) vs. Iraq (3%) - 5 p.m. (FOX/Tele/Peacock)
⚽ World Cup: Norway (47%) vs. Senegal (30%) - 8 p.m. (FOX/Tele/Peacock)
⚽ World Cup: Jordan (16%) vs. Algeria (65%) - 11 p.m. (FOX/Tele/Peacock)
⚽ World Cup odds: France 21% to win
MLB:
⚾ Phillies (48%) at Nationals (52%) - 6:45 p.m. (MLB.tv)
⚾ Dodgers (59%) at Twins (41%) - 7:40 p.m. (MLB.tv)
⚾ Braves (51%) at Padres (49%) - 10:10 p.m. (MLB.tv)
⚾ Championship check-in: Dodgers 30% to win World Series
NCAA:
⚾ College World Series Final: Oklahoma (45%) vs. North Carolina (55%), Game 3 (Series tied 1-1) - 7 p.m. (ESPN) 🚨
WNBA:
🏀 Tempo (12%) at Dream (88%) - 7:30 p.m.
🏀 Mercury (29%) at Fever (71%) - 8 p.m. (USA Network)
🏀 Wings (79%) at Storm (21%) - 10 p.m.
🏀 Championship check-in: Lynx 26% to win WNBA title
🔍 FIND THE EDGE
State of the Cup
The World Cup is now technically in its third week of action, and the group stage will wrap up next Saturday (the 27th). That means most teams have played 2 matches thus far, with the stragglers getting those in today and tomorrow. It’s a good moment to step back and take stock of trends that have emerged in the tournament so far, with the help of my 2026 World Cup prediction market odds tracker.
One of the big early takeaways is that we already have a strong sense of who is bound for the knockout rounds, with 24 teams having at least a 90% chance to grab one of the 32 available slots in the next phase of the tournament, and three others — Croatia, Scotland and Ghana — sitting between 75% and 90%.
That leaves a handful of teams fighting over the last few remaining spots in the round of 32 — including, incredibly, Cape Verde, a team representing a nation with a population equivalent to Sacramento that had never previously qualified for the World Cup, but now has a 71% chance to advance to the knockouts after tying two nations (Spain and Uruguay) who have won the a combined 3 World Cups and have 57 World Cup tournament match wins between them.
The hosts are not among those worried about advancing, as Mexico and the US have clinched their groups already, and Canada is favored to win Group B, too. In fact, Team USA has been one of the most impressive teams of the tournament thus far, with one of the best goals-per-game differentials in group stage history (adjusted for strength of competition) and one of the most meteoric gains in the Elo ratings as well. History says those teams hold up surprisingly well in the knockouts, so we’ll have to see how far the Americans can go.
The US is among nine teams with at least a 3% chance to win the title — a big upgrade over where they sat going into the tournament — but the heavyweights still control the top of the board. France has looked formidable (they’ll be in action again today) and they are the clear favorites, though Spain steadied its spot among the contenders with a 4-0 destruction of Saudi Arabia on Sunday that saw phenom Lamine Yamal score his first World Cup goal. Spain, Argentina and England occupy a Tier 1B in the odds below France:
The next group — with Portugal, Germany, Brazil and the Netherlands — has plenty of question marks, but all check in at 5% or higher to win the tournament. And Team USA occupies an interesting zone between them and the following tier (led by Japan, Morocco and Norway), with the fifth-highest chance to make the Round of 8 (46%) of any team in the field.
Why? It’s due to a surprisingly clear path for the US through the first two knockout rounds, with the bracket setting the Americans to face a third-place team (from Group B/E/F/I/J) and then the winner between another third-place squad and the Group G champ (most likely Egypt, a team that ranks just 36th in Elo).
Even so, there are no automatics in the World Cup — and after a fairly low-stakes opening round for the top teams (with only a few exceptions), the tournament is about to enter a phase where the tension starts to rise considerably… and we are here for it.
📊 CHART OF THE DAY
Any way the Wyndham blows
Despite fans exhorting crowd-favorite Scottie Scheffler to complete his career Grand Slam — and stat-nerds like me crying as Tommy Fleetwood failed to mount a Sunday charge — the 2026 US Open instead went to the villain, Wyndham Clark, who held on to win wire-to-wire despite a 3-over-par final round and a bogey at 17 with a 2-shot lead. (It was the US Open, after all.) Clark now has two majors in his career, which is a special accomplishment — one is an accident but two is a trend, as they say — yet he is also one of the weirder members of the 2-major club, having won only three career non-majors on the PGA Tour. That also makes him the worst multi-major winner by Data Golf’s DG Points metric, which is admittedly a little like saying you had the smallest yacht at Jeff Bezos’ wedding.
❄️ STAY FROSTY
What else we’re reading
Smart, short reads we liked while building today’s odds.
🏀 “Sources: Giannis Antetokounmpo trade finalists are Celtics, Heat” by Shams Charania
🏀 “2026 NBA Draft: Top 60” by Ed Weiland
🏒 “You Think This Summer Feels Busy With NHL Trade Talk? Wait Until Next Year…” by Jim Parsons
🏀 “The Most Unusual Zone Defense” by Jordan Sperber
⚾ “Daniel Jackson Could be the Steal of the MLB Draft in Round One” by Baseball Scoops
👀 EYES UP
Next on deck…
Tuesday (6/23)
⚽ World Cup: Portugal vs. Uzbekistan / England vs. Ghana / Panama vs. Croatia / Colombia vs. DR Congo
🏀 2026 NBA Draft
⚾ MLB: Dodgers at Twins
🏀 WNBA: Liberty at Aces
Wednesday (6/24)
⚽ World Cup: Switzerland vs. Canada / Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar / Morocco vs. Haiti / Scotland vs. Brazil
⚾ MLB: Orioles at Angels
🏀 WNBA: Dream at Valkyries
Thursday (6/25)
⚽ World Cup: Curaçao vs. Ivory Coast / Ecuador vs. Germany / Tunisia vs. Netherlands / Japan vs. Sweden / Paraguay vs. Australia / Turkey vs. USA
⚾ MLB: Phillies at Nationals
🏀 WNBA: Liberty at Storm
🧠 Looking ahead
Stay tuned for more updates and in-depth analysis of these events and more as they unfold. We’ll be bringing you all the scores, highlights, and expert commentary.
Got a favorite team or sport you want us to cover more? Let us know!
All data current as of time of send.
— by Neil Paine
*Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.