1. Is it plausible to you that Brad added Xavier Tillman because last year's numbers (in a functional Ja-led Grizzlies offense) were much better? Would you bet that X's current numbers hold roughly constant, or he can revert to form with Celts?
2. How often do the #7 and #8 role players make the diff in NBA Finals?
It seemed the 2008 Celts needed PJ and Posey. The 2009 and 2010 Celts didn't win because Bynum overpowered them (even as Kobe was chucking bricks). They lost PJ (and Perk).
Perhaps the 2024 Celts are in a similar position. Versus Nuggets and Bucks, it was ugly. Barkley says "soft." A functional Tillman may be a marginal matchup-based upgrade when that's precisely what we needed!
For sure, I bet they are taking the larger view of things with somebody like Tillman. A more full-fledged version of this exercise would do a CARMELO-style (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/) multi-year forecast for the WAR rather than just looking at 2023-24, and Tillman -- who had 2.0 WAR/82 last year rather than 0.5 this year -- would look better. (I also think a lot of teams like Boston were wary of messing up a good thing and changing their cap situation, if such a change was even possible, so I understand why their moves were more on the marginal side.)
As for role players, we do know that benches get shorter in the playoffs, and depth matters less than star power. But particular players who fill roles like a Tillman, who can offer interior defense and has been efficient on offense in a limited role in the past, have a better chance of working their way into the rotation.
Good post. Two questions.
1. Is it plausible to you that Brad added Xavier Tillman because last year's numbers (in a functional Ja-led Grizzlies offense) were much better? Would you bet that X's current numbers hold roughly constant, or he can revert to form with Celts?
2. How often do the #7 and #8 role players make the diff in NBA Finals?
It seemed the 2008 Celts needed PJ and Posey. The 2009 and 2010 Celts didn't win because Bynum overpowered them (even as Kobe was chucking bricks). They lost PJ (and Perk).
Perhaps the 2024 Celts are in a similar position. Versus Nuggets and Bucks, it was ugly. Barkley says "soft." A functional Tillman may be a marginal matchup-based upgrade when that's precisely what we needed!
For sure, I bet they are taking the larger view of things with somebody like Tillman. A more full-fledged version of this exercise would do a CARMELO-style (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/) multi-year forecast for the WAR rather than just looking at 2023-24, and Tillman -- who had 2.0 WAR/82 last year rather than 0.5 this year -- would look better. (I also think a lot of teams like Boston were wary of messing up a good thing and changing their cap situation, if such a change was even possible, so I understand why their moves were more on the marginal side.)
As for role players, we do know that benches get shorter in the playoffs, and depth matters less than star power. But particular players who fill roles like a Tillman, who can offer interior defense and has been efficient on offense in a limited role in the past, have a better chance of working their way into the rotation.