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It’s Thursday, and sports feels like it has reached its absolute peak right now. In addition to the 2026 World Cup starting TODAY — read up on the favorites and sleepers below — we’re coming off one of the wildest games in NBA history, with the New York Knicks erasing a 29-point San Antonio Spurs lead to set a new finals record for the largest comeback ever (and take a 3-1 series lead). We’ll break down just how that happened later, but we’re also watching to see how the Canes-Knights Stanley Cup Final — itself no slouch in the wild comeback department — can respond to the NBA’s one-uppery, as they’ll hit the ice for Game 5 with the series tied 2-2 (always a hugely critical moment in a hockey playoff series) tonight. Along with that, here’s what’s on tap today:
🗓️ TONIGHT’S DANCE
The Main Events
All listed times are Eastern. 🚨= Elimination game
NBA Playoffs:
🏀 No games
NHL Playoffs:
🏒 Golden Knights (40%) at Hurricanes (60%),* Game 5 (Series tied 2-2) - 8 p.m. (ABC) - CAR 57% to win series
MLB:
⚾ Dodgers (60%) at Pirates (40%) - 6:40 p.m. (MLB.tv)
⚾ Mariners (52%) at Orioles (48%) - 7:05 p.m. (MLB.tv)
⚾ Braves (53%) at White Sox (47%) - 7:40 p.m. (MLB.tv)
⚾ Championship check-in: Dodgers 30% to win World Series
WNBA:
🏀 Sky (20%) at Fever (80%) - 7 p.m. (Prime Video)
🏀 Liberty (40%) at Dream (60%) - 7:30 p.m.
🏀 Aces (81%) at Portland (19%) - 10 p.m.
🏀 Championship check-in: Lynx 35% to win WNBA title
Soccer:
⚽ World Cup begins! 🏆
⚽ World Cup: Mexico (72%) vs. South Africa (11%) - 3 p.m. (FOX/Tele/Peacock)
⚽ World Cup: South Korea (37%) vs. Czech Republic (34%) - 10 p.m. (FS1/Tele/Peacock)
⚽ World Cup odds: Spain 20% to win
Golf:
⛳ RBC Canadian Open: First Round (TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley, North Course) - Matt Fitzpatrick 7% to win
🔍 FIND THE EDGE
Fever pitch
The 2026 FIFA World Cup has finally arrived, beginning today with matches between Mexico and South Africa (3 p.m.) and South Korea and the Czech Republic (10 p.m.) from Mexico. To help track the odds all in one place, I built a tracker that aggregates Polymarket’s futures for teams to reach certain stages of the tournament — or win it all — while normalizing them all to add up to the correct total share within each category (i.e., championship odds add to 100%, etc.). Here’s that chart for all 48 teams — yes, that’s the expanded field size now — as of Thursday morning:
A few items stand out as we go into the tournament:
Spain and France are (not particularly heavy) cofavorites. Two teams co-occupy the top slot on the list, at 16% apiece after normalizing the odds: Spain and France. Not coincidentally, they are two recent World Cup winners (in 2010 and 2018, respectively) and they are the only two teams to rank among the top 3 in both the Elo ratings — which track long-term team form — and the roster-wide transfer valuations — a proxy for talent on hand. So they make sense as favorites… but 16% is relatively modest by historical favorite standards, where the top team is usually closer to 20% most years.
Europe dominates the ranking. Along with the Spanish and French sides, the next highest-ranked favorites are England and Portugal (at 11% apiece), meaning four Western European nations have amassed about 53% of the title odds all by themselves. Yes, the next two squads are from South America — Argentina (the defending champs!) and Brazil (the historical juggernaut), splitting 17% between themselves — but then the next four teams on the list (Germany, Netherlands, Norway, and Belgium) are also from Europe, collecting 13% more odds.
What about the non-Europeans? Add it up, and eight of the top 10 teams are European, accounting for 66% of the title odds by themselves. But among the non-European or South American nations — and nobody has ever won the Cup from outside those continents — the leading favorites are Japan and Morocco at 2% each, followed by Mexico, the US (uncoincidentally also the hosts, along with Canada), and Senegal at 1% each.
The new format opens new paths — especially for the hosts. As part of the new 48-team field, the math around advancement has changed; not only will the top 2 teams in each group move on to the knockouts, but so will the eight highest-ranked third-place teams. This softens the impact of a “Group of Death,” making it easier for the favorites to survive the group stage, even if the knockout paths are now ridiculously convoluted. Consequently, hosting Mexico (92%), Canada (86%), and the US (84%) all have good odds to make the knockout round, despite the latter two having under 40% odds to actually win their groups.
The toss-up groups to watch: Speaking of which, the US is in the biggest toss-up group on the board — Group D, where they are effectively tied in the market odds with Türkiye at 37% apiece, with Paraguay and Australia checking in at double digits as well. No other group’s favorite is below 50%, but Groups F (Netherlands favored at 53%), B (Switzerland 56%), and A (Mexico 57%) are not far from 50-50. Even cofavorite France is not immune from a group stage logjam in Group I, which also features Norway and Senegal — both of which also have at least 1% championship odds. (Norway in particular has a higher probability of reaching the quarterfinals than they do of winning their group, which makes them an interesting sleeper to watch.)
Golden Balls and Boots. The player markets are also always interesting to track — especially when it comes to debates around the big headline awards for the tournament: the Golden Boot (leading goal-scorer) and Golden Ball (best player/MVP). In the 11 tournaments since the World Cup began awarding the Golden Ball officially, only twice have both awards gone to the same player: Paolo Rossi in 1982 and Salvatore Schillaci in 1990. So it shouldn’t come as a surprise to see that the Golden Boot favorite (France’s Kylian Mbappé at 17%) isn’t the same as the Golden Ball favorite (18-year-old Spanish wunderkind Lamine Yamal at 11%) this time around, either.
Now that the soccer balls are rolling, we’re thrilled to have the World Cup back — and we’ll be tracking every market twist and tournament turn from here through the final on July 19.
📊 CHART OF THE DAY
Anatomy of a comeback (or collapse)
As mentioned earlier, the Knicks mounted the largest comeback in recorded NBA Finals history on Wednesday night, overcoming what seemed like an insurmountable 81-52 San Antonio lead when De’Aaron Fox sank a 16-foot pull-up jumper with 9:40 remaining in the third quarter. From that moment onward, the Knicks outscored San Antonio 55-25, outshooting them 56% to 22% from the floor, including 56% to 14% from 3-point range, and converting about 20 of their 33 possessions to points while holding the Spurs scoreless on 20 of their 33 possessions — explaining the Knicks’ incredible 90-points-per-100-possessions efficiency gap, sustained for roughly 22 straight minutes to close the game:
❄️ STAY FROSTY
What else we’re reading
Smart, short reads we liked while building today’s odds.
⚽ “The 2026 World Cup Is Expected To Generate $13 Billion. Where Does All That Money Come From?” by David Skilling
⚽ “World Cup 2026: The One Darkhorse We Are Not Talking About” by Edward Egros
⚽ “How FIFA Turned The World Cup Into A Cash Grab” by Joe Pompliano
⚾ “Fans Should Always Appreciate Ohtani’s Greatness While it is Here” by Baseball Scoops
🏁 “Formula 1 Set for Engine Overhaul as FIA Approves Gradual Shift Away from 50/50 Power Split” by Formula Reports
👀 EYES UP
Next on deck…
Friday (6/12)
⚽ World Cup: US vs. Paraguay / Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina
🏀 NBA Playoffs: No games
🏒 NHL Playoffs: No games
⚾ MLB: Phillies at Brewers
⚾ NCAA: College World Series begins
🏀 WNBA: Valkyries at Storm
⛳ Golf: RBC Canadian Open
Saturday (6/13)
⚽ World Cup: Qatar vs. Switzerland / Brazil vs. Morocco / Haiti vs. Scotland / Australia vs. Türkiye
🏀 NBA Playoffs: Spurs at Knicks, NBA Finals Game 5 (NYK leads 3-1) 🚨
🏒 NHL Playoffs: No games
⚾ MLB: Yankees at Blue Jays
⚾ NCAA: College World Series
🏀 WNBA: Lynx at Aces
⛳ Golf: RBC Canadian Open
🥊 Boxing: Antonio Vargas vs. Jesse “Bam” Rodriguez (WBA bantamweight title)
Sunday (6/14)
⚽ World Cup: Germany vs. Curaçao / Netherlands vs. Japan / Ivory Coast vs. Ecuador / Sweden vs. Tunisia
🏀 NBA Playoffs: No games
🏒 NHL Playoffs: Hurricanes at Golden Knights, Stanley Cup Final Game 6 🚨
⚾ MLB: Dodgers at White Sox
⚾ NCAA: College World Series
🏀 WNBA: Mystics at Liberty
⛳ Golf: RBC Canadian Open
🏁 NASCAR: The Great American Getaway 400 (Pocono Raceway, Long Pond, PA)
🏁 F1: MSC Cruises Barcelona-Catalunya Grand Prix (Circuit de Catalunya)
🥊 UFC Freedom 250: Ilia Topuria vs. Justin Gaethje (South Lawn of the White House, Washington, DC)
🧠 Looking ahead
Stay tuned for more updates and in-depth analysis of these events and more as they unfold. We’ll be bringing you all the scores, highlights, and expert commentary.
Got a favorite team or sport you want us to cover more? Let us know!
All data current as of time of send.
— by Neil Paine
*Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.