The 10 Best Canadian NHL Teams of the Stanley Cup Drought Era
The 10 Best Canadian NHL Teams of the Stanley Cup Drought Era
Canada's 31-year dry spell could end this year, but let's appreciate the teams that came closest to stopping it earlier.
I know I’ve been saying this for a while… but 2024 really might be the year a Canadian team finally hoists the Stanley Cup again, for the first time since the Montreal Canadiens did it in 1993. According to FanDuel, the Edmonton Oilers have the best odds of any team to win the Cup (+800) — and the Toronto Maple Leafs (+1300), Winnipeg Jets (+1300) and Vancouver Canucks (+1400) aren’t too far behind, either. If we look at my meta-forecast model, there’s a 31.7% chance that Canada ends its drought this season, which is quite high by the standards of recent decades.
With all of that in mind, I thought it might be fun to rank the 10 best precursors to this year’s potential drought-enders: The Canadian teams since 1993 who were the best according to a combination of the numbers (including the Elo and SRS ratings) and how close they came to breaking the nation’s dry spell in the playoffs.
1. 2010-11 Vancouver Canucks
Elo rating: 1581 (1st)
SRS rating: +0.87 (1st)
Playoffs: Lost Stanley Cup Final (4-3) to Boston Bruins
This absolutely loaded powerhouse of a team represented Canada’s best shot at winning the Cup since 1993. They led the league in both goals for and fewest goals against — a feat that hadn’t been accomplished since the 1966-67 Blackhawks, and hasn’t been matched since (even the mighty 2022-23 Bruins ranked 2nd in scoring). The Sedin Twins, Daniel and Henrik, combined for 214 total Adjusted Points, with C Ryan Kesler and D Christian Ehrhoff also chipping in the best seasons of their careers, and Roberto Luongo standing tall in net. After barely avoiding a blown 3-0 lead in the 1st round, Vancouver marched to the Finals and had two cracks at clinching the Cup (including Game 7 at home), but lost to Boston in the finale to end up just shy of glory.
2. 2006-07 Ottawa Senators
Elo rating: 1595 (1st)
SRS rating: +0.64 (7th)
Playoffs: Lost Stanley Cup Final (4-1) to Anaheim Ducks
The 2000s-era Senators of the Jacques Martin/Bryan Murray era had a few good options to choose from here, including the 2002-03 squad that won the President’s Trophy and came within a game of playing for the Stanley Cup. But the 2006-07 version probably featured the Sens’ best all-around roster, combining a deadly offense — they ranked 2nd in scoring, led by peak Dany Heatley, Jason Spezza and Daniel Alfredsson with 284 combined aPts — a sturdy D-corps paced by the last good season of Tom Preissing’s career, and an outstanding performance from the late Ray Emery between the pipes. Ottawa ran into a brick wall in the Finals against the far more physical Ducks, but the Senators spent much of the regular season and especially the playoffs (as they tore through the East with a 12-3 record) looking like they were going to snap their country’s Cup-less streak.
3. 2017-18 Winnipeg Jets
Elo rating: 1574 (2nd)
SRS rating: +0.74 (1st)
Playoffs: Lost Conference Finals (4-1) to Vegas Golden Knights
This is one of the most interesting entries on the list. No, the Jets didn’t go to the Stanley Cup Finals, losing in 5 games to the expansion Golden Knights in the WCF. But for a good amount of the 2017-18 season, the Jets were looking like the best team in hockey — and Canada’s best hope to bring the Cup home since the 2011 Canucks. They had the scoring, ranking 2nd in goals behind the deep forward quintet of Patrik Laine, Blake Wheeler, Nikolaj Ehlers, Mark Scheifele and Kyle Connor. They had the toughness of Dustin Byfuglien on the blueline and an emerging young Connor Hellebuyck in goal. And the fact that it happened with a franchise that rose from the ashes of the Atlanta Thrashers to become a contender on the prairies of Manitoba? For a little while, this sure seemed like a team of destiny.
4. 1993-94 Vancouver Canucks
Elo rating: 1530 (8th)
SRS rating: +0.01 (15th)
Playoffs: Lost Stanley Cup Final (4-3) to New York Rangers
Coming right on the heels of Montreal’s 1993 Cup victory, this Canucks run made it seem like Canadian teams were going to continue making the Finals every season (as they’d done 9 straight years from 1982-90). Not that Vancouver appeared destined to make a deep playoff push for most of the 1993-94 season; the Canucks had fallen from 3rd to 7th in their conference, and didn’t distinguish themselves in any way aside from the electrifying scoring talent of RW Pavel Bure. In the postseason, however, Bure’s supporting cast (led by RW Trevor Linden) picked up the scoring pace while G Kirk McLean rebounded from his mediocre regular season. Vancouver fell behind 3-1 in the Finals, but the Canucks fought back to set up a Game 7 at Madison Square Garden — where they came surprisingly close to upsetting a stacked New York Rangers team for the Cup.
5. 2003-04 Calgary Flames
Elo rating: 1545 (11th)
SRS rating: +0.33 (10th)
Playoffs: Lost Stanley Cup Final (4-3) to Tampa Bay Lightning
Like a number of Canada’s Cup Finalists during the drought era, the Flames were not an amazing team for the majority of the season. Their attack had little in the way of threats beyond RW Jarome Iginla (48 aG, 85 aPts), but they were carried by a strong, Jordan Leopold-led defense and the stellar play of former backup goalie Miikka Kiprusoff. With C Craig Conroy and LW Martin Gelinas adding more offense in the playoffs, Calgary gutted out 7 games in Round 1 against Vancouver, then knocked off the favored Red Wings and Sharks to reach an unlikely Final against the Lightning. And just like the script the 2011 Canucks would later follow, the Flames led 3-2 with a chance to win the Cup for all of Canada at home… only to drop a heartbreaking 2OT Game 6 and come up just short of a Game 7 comeback.
6. 2005-06 Edmonton Oilers
Elo rating: 1541 (9th)
SRS rating: +0.15 (13th)
Playoffs: Lost Stanley Cup Final (4-3) to Carolina Hurricanes
Not to ever be outdone by their rivals in the Battle of Alberta, Edmonton saw what Calgary had done in nearly winning the Cup two years prior1 and tried their own hand at it. The Oilers were bolstered by the acquisition of future HOF defenseman Chris Pronger (in his lone season with the club) and a midseason trade for netminder Dwayne Roloson, but still only made the playoffs as the West’s No. 8 seed. From there, though, they pulled off a series of upsets with Roloson playing at a Conn Smythe level. In the Finals against Carolina, Edmonton battled back from a 3-1 deficit to force Game 7 on the road, but they fell behind early and met the same fate as the Flames before them.
7. 1994-95 Quebec Nordiques
Elo rating: 1529 (8th)
SRS rating: +1.01 (2nd)
Playoffs: Lost Conference Quarter-Finals (4-2) to New York Rangers
NHL fans of the ‘90s will know that this Nordiques team was on the cusp of something big in 1995. Just a half-decade removed from one of the worst teams in hockey history, Quebec had quickly rebuilt itself into one of the NHL’s youngest and most exciting squads. Improbably, a lot of that happened after dealing away 1991 No. 1 overall pick Eric Lindros, a generational prospect who refused to play in Quebec; the Lindros trade with Philadelphia netted the Nords 1995 Rookie of the Year Peter Forsberg and a bunch of other players who eventually helped form the backbone of the Colorado Avalanche’s quasi-dynasty after the Nordiques relocated to Denver. But even by 1995, a year before the move, Quebec already had a core of Forsberg, Joe Sakic, Owen Nolan, Valeri Kamensky, Adam Deadmarsh and Adam Foote, among others. In sign of things to come, this team gave the Rangers all they could handle before losing in Round 1.
8. 2002-03 Vancouver Canucks
Elo rating: 1548 (7th)
SRS rating: +0.74 (5th)
Playoffs: Lost Conference Semi-Finals (4-3) to Minnesota Wild
The Canucks have had a LOT of entries on this list, for better or for worse. (And that’s without even including the 2023-24 edition, whose story is still as yet unwritten.) The sneakiest one belongs to the ‘03 squad, which never got as far as the ‘94 or ‘11 versions but might have had as much or more talent. The headliners here were the devastating 1-2 punch of wingers Markus Näslund and Todd Bertuzzi, who — while sandwiched around C Brendan Morrison — helped Vancouver rank 2nd in scoring. Meanwhile, Ed Jovanovski and Sami Salo led an effective D-corps with a mix of physicality and finesse. The only missing ingredient was consistent goaltending, with starter Dan Cloutier posting subpar regular-season numbers. That would haunt Vancouver in Round 2 of the playoffs, as Minnesota found the net 16 times in the final 3 games to overcome a 3-1 deficit and spoil another potential Finals run for the Canucks.
9. 2022-23 Edmonton Oilers
Elo rating: 1582 (4th)
SRS rating: +0.73 (4th)
Playoffs: Lost Second Round (4-2) to Vegas Golden Knights
Last year’s Oilers might get lost in the shuffle because they didn’t advance to the Conference Finals, but it’s worth highlighting the quality of what was Connor McDavid’s top Edmonton squad to that point. Powered by their superstar’s best season yet — plus the contributions of Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Zach Hyman — the Oilers had the 54th-best offense in NHL history (relative to league average) and the most potent power play unit ever (32.4 PP%). As usual, the team had trouble finding answers on the defensive/goaltending side of the puck, and that cost them against the Knights in the playoffs when their star power met its limits. But among Canadian teams since 1993, only those ‘95 Nordiques had a more dominant regular-season offense.
10. 2001-02 Toronto Maple Leafs
Elo rating: 1531 (9th)
SRS rating: +0.44 (6th)
Playoffs: Lost Conference Finals (4-2) to Carolina Hurricanes
Before the 2023 Leafs finally won the franchise a playoff series for the first time since 2004, Toronto did find its way to the conference finals sometimes. The most recent example came in 2002, with a team that was the best of the Mats Sundin era by goal differential (+0.51/gm). Despite a disappointing year from Curtis Joseph in net and fewer goals than expected from newcomer Alex Mogilny, the Leafs’ ensemble of veterans2 ranked 3rd in scoring and allowed the league’s 12th-fewest goals en route to the East’s No. 4 seed. Then, in the playoffs, Toronto did something that will sound completely alien to younger Leafs fans: They won Game 7s in both of the first 2 rounds, before bowing out against the Hurricanes in a 6-game ECF.
Honorable Mention: 2020-21 Montreal Canadiens
Elo rating: 1503 (18th)
SRS rating: -0.14 (19th)
Playoffs: Lost Stanley Cup Final (4-1) to Tampa Bay Lightning
Searching for the only other Cup Final berth by a Canadian team during the drought era? Here it is, courtesy of one of the strangest underdog runs in modern playoff history. This Habs team was quite mediocre for most of the year, finishing 17th on offense and 18th on defense with goalies Carey Price and Jake Allen both having subpar seasons. But they did manage to make the playoffs by virtue of the NHL’s one-off, all-Canadian division format for 2021, a remnant of COVID-era regulations. And though they entered the postseason with the fewest points of any team, Montreal proceeded to mount a 3-1 comeback on the Leafs, sweep the favored Jets and pull off a massive upset over the Knights. They’re not higher on this list because, even after the Finals, Montreal still had a losing record (37-41) across the entire season. But they deserve a mention because their improbable hot streak almost saw them ending Canada’s drought in the weirdest way possible.
Best of the rest: 2022-23 Toronto Maple Leafs, 2021-22 Calgary Flames, 2016-17 Ottawa Senators, 2013-14 Montreal Canadiens
Filed under: NHL
There was no Cup to be hoisted in-between 2003-04 and 2005-06, as the 2004-05 lockout wiped out an entire season of play.
Like, seriously, practically every random-but-solid journeyman forward you could think of from that era played for this team, including Darcy Tucker, Mogilny, Robert Reichel, Mikael Renberg, Gary Roberts, Jonas Höglund, Travis Green and Shayne Corson.