50 For McDavid Was An Overdue Testament To His Growing Greatness

The Oilers' superstar should have flirted with the milestone years ago.

Given all of his undeniable greatness and eye-popping statistical production over the years, it’s a bit surprising that Connor McDavid had never eclipsed the 50-goal mark until just last night, when he put the puck in the net after a sick deke on Bruins goalie Jeremy Swayman. We’re used to McDavid just having all the stats, much like Wayne Gretzky or Mario Lemieux in previous eras.

But McDavid has been unlucky in more ways than just the Oilers’ chronic inability to surround him with a defense that could help him win the Cup. He also has seen multiple seasons truncated by the COVID-19 pandemic, costing him numerous scheduled games that could have come in handy when chasing milestones.

When play ceased in the 2019-20 regular season, the Oilers were 11 games shy of a full season. McDavid had 34 goals in 64 games to that point, so it’s highly unlikely that he would have netted the 16 goals necessary to reach 50 (though he could have easily reached 40 for a third consecutive season). However, it was the following year, 2020-21, when the scheduling gods truly robbed McDavid of a chance for a historic season.

That year, McDavid played all 56 of Edmonton’s games, scoring 33 goals and assisting on 72 others. Pro-rate those numbers to an 82-game schedule, and it’s easy to see McDavid hunting some impressive round-number clubs. First of all, that pace works out to 48.3 goals per 82 games, meaning just a little extra hot streak could have gotten McDavid to 50 goals two years earlier. And his assist pace was even more impressive: 105 per 82 games. Only 13 times in NHL history has a player gotten into triple-digits for assists in a single season; 11 belong to Gretzky, one belongs to Lemieux and one belongs to Bobby Orr.

This year, McDavid probably won’t crack that club — his current pace per 82 games is 87.4 assists. (Still impressive!) But in the goal-scoring department, he made sure to leave zero doubt this season. Not only did he reach 50 last night, but with a per-82 pace of 67.2 goals, he should comfortably break 60 by year’s end and even has an outside shot at 70, something that’s only been done 14 times in a season in NHL history.

And the fact that McDavid has, at various times in his career, flirted with both scoring and playmaking milestones only accomplished roughly a dozen times before in history is one of the best ways to frame his greatness. According to Hockey-Reference’s adjusted stats, McDavid had 50 adjusted goals and 108 adjusted assists in that landmark 2020-21 season — one of only five 50/100 adjusted seasons ever. (Of the other four, three belong to Gretzky and one to old-school Canadiens superstar Howie Morenz.) And this year, McDavid checks in with 65 adjusted goals and 83 adjusted assists, which would also make McDavid, Morenz and Gretzky the only players in history with separate 60+ aG and 100+ aA seasons in their careers.

Those adjusted numbers truly illustrate the evolution of McDavid’s game. Earlier in his career, he averaged about 40 adjusted goals and 80 adjusted assists per season — the hallmark of an all-time centerman in the classic mold of a Sidney Crosby (who’s had 14 seasons of 30+ adjusted goals, but only four of 40+ and one of 50+). But 65 adjusted goals transcends the “playmaking center who can also score” mold and gets into legitimate sniper territory. As anyone who’s watched McDavid this year could tell you, he is a threat to score practically every time he has the puck — adding just another extra threat level to one of the most dangerous offensive players in NHL history.