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Hello, and a happy Monday to you as we embark on another sports week together. We’re still trying to process the big moment of the weekend — UConn freshman Braylon Mullins’ desperate heave from 35 feet away that somehow went in perfectly, shockingly sending the Huskies to the Final Four instead of heavily favored Duke — so we’ll have plenty on that (and the aftermath) below. Meanwhile, we’re still waiting for the women’s Final Four to be set later today, with South Carolina and Texas as big favorites — ahead of their respective matchups with TCU and Michigan — to join UConn and UCLA in the all top-seeded national semifinal round. Between that and everything else happening on the penultimate day of a busy March, here’s what we’re watching right now in sports:
🗓️ TONIGHT’S DANCE
The Main Events
All listed times are Eastern.
MLB:
⚾ Red Sox (52%) at Astros (48%)* - 8:10 p.m. (MLB.tv)
⚾ Yankees (49%) at Mariners (51%) - 9:40 p.m. (MLB.tv)
⚾ Guardians (36%) at Dodgers (64%) - 10:10 p.m. (MLB.tv)
NBA:
🏀 76ers (56%) at Heat (44%) - 7 p.m. (Peacock)
🏀 Celtics (48%) at Hawks (52%) - 7:30 p.m.
🏀 Pistons (14%) at Thunder (86%) - 9:30 p.m. (Peacock)
NHL:
🏒 Penguins (47%) at Islanders (53%) - 7 p.m. (NHL Net)
🏒 Flames (23%) at Avalanche (77%) - 8:30 p.m. (ESPN+)
🏒 Canucks (25%) at Golden Knights (75%) - 10 p.m. (ESPN+)
NCAA Women’s Tournament (Elite Eight):
🏀 1 Texas (81%) vs. 2 Michigan (19%) - 7 p.m. (ESPN)
🏀 1 South Carolina (91%) vs. 3 TCU (9%) - 9 p.m. (ESPN)
Soccer:
⚽ International Friendly: Germany (86%) vs. Ghana (6%) - 2:45 p.m. (FS1)
🔍 FIND THE EDGE
Duke downfall’s dominoes
For most of this past weekend, the men’s Elite Eight action felt destined to be disappointingly anticlimactic. On Saturday, Illinois beat Iowa by 12 and Arizona cruised past Purdue by 15, with both winners crushing their opponents by a combined 91-53 score in the second half after both trailed at halftime. Sunday opened with Michigan dominating Tennessee by 33 — no halftime comeback required there — and Duke seemed to be well on its way to making the Final Four, too, with a 15-point halftime lead and a peak win probability of 98.7% at midgame, per ESPN.
But then, all hell broke loose in Washington, DC. Over the span of just 5 minutes and 3 seconds, the favored Blue Devils squandered a 9-point lead with five missed shots or turnovers on their final nine possessions, while UConn went on a 15-5 run capped by an unbelievable shot from Mullins — who hadn’t made another 3-pointer all game and was shooting just 21% from deep during the tournament leading up to Sunday.
The prospect of a Connecticut comeback roiled the prediction markets on Sunday evening, with the Blue Devils going from trading as a championship cofavorite (with Arizona) at times during the game to something much less as the realization set in that, first, they might blow their lead, and then that they were basically cooked after Mullins’ miracle shot found the bottom of the net.
So in the end, instead of Duke, one of the main favorites that defined this entire season of men’s college hoops, we’ll get a fascinating UConn squad that is both the most recent champ among the Final Four by far — they last won in 2024, two years ago, while the average title drought for Michigan/Arizona/Illinois is 51.3 years — and the lowest-rated remaining team in the field, a clear notch below the rest of the contenders on paper. As always, just when you think you have March Madness figured out, things have a tendency to get a little, well, crazy.
📊 CHART OF THE DAY
A big Saturday at the racetrack
I mentioned last week that I would attend the 2026 Arkansas Derby in person on Saturday, which certainly lived up to expectations — and not just because I narrowly broke even on the 20-ish wagers I placed during my 11 hours at the track, either. 😂 The headline race, won by Renegade with an incredible closing kick that saw him basically zoom around the entire field in the final quarter to win by four lengths, may have anointed a new Kentucky Derby favorite. At the same time Renegade was dominating, Commandment won the Florida Derby (another important prep race), but only in a photo finish over The Puma. And presumptive early Kentucky favorite Paladin was injured in a workout Saturday as well, sidelining him for the rest of the spring and summer — and likely leading to a massive reshuffling of the Derby odds with a bit over four weeks to go before the season’s first Triple Crown race:
❄️ STAY FROSTY
What else we’re reading
Smart, short reads we liked while building today’s odds.
⚾ “Why April MLB stats don’t mean what you think” by Neil Greenberg
🏈 “Fixing College Football Part 1: Realignment” by Griffin Olah
🏈 “Can One Player Change Everything? The Chiefs, the Browns, and the Packers’ ‘Missing Piece’” by Matt Lombardo
⚽ “Goodbye, Mo Salah: Liverpool’s ‘just right’ superstar moves on” by Grace Robertson
🏁 “SHANGHAI: The shocker: The Most Dangerous Driver in This Championship Isn’t Who You Think.” by Aliasgher Nomani
👀 EYES UP
Next on deck…
Tuesday (3/31)
⚾ MLB: Yankees vs. Mariners
🏀 NBA: Cavaliers vs. Lakers
🏒 NHL: Stars vs. Bruins
⚽ Soccer: Brazil vs. Croatia
Wednesday (4/1)
⚾ MLB: Red Sox vs. Astros
🏀 NBA: Spurs vs. Warriors
🏒 NHL: Ducks vs. Sharks
⚽ Soccer: US vs. Portugal
Thursday (4/2)
⚾ MLB: Braves at D-Backs
🏀 NBA: Lakers at Thunder
🏒 NHL: Bruins at Panthers
⚽ Soccer: Real Madrid at Barcelona (Women’s Champions League)
⛳ Golf: Valero Texas Open (San Antonio)
🧠 Looking ahead
Stay tuned for more updates and in-depth analysis of these events and more as they unfold. We’ll be bringing you all the scores, highlights, and expert commentary.
Got a favorite team or sport you want us to cover more? Let us know!
All data current as of time of send.
— by Neil Paine
*Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.