🏀2024-25 NCAA Tournament Meta-Forecast (OLD) 📊

Track each Division I men's basketball team's odds to make the NCAA tourney field.

(🚨NOTE:🚨 This is an old version of this page. For the new version, click here.)

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In the spirit of BracketMatrix, the following page contains a composite of probabilities to advance through — and before that, make the Round of 68 in — the 2024-25 NCAA Division I men's basketball tournament. The current component team ratings (for the bracket odds) and/or forecast models (for the mid-season forecast) are from: ESPN Analytics (BPI), Ken Pomeroy, Bart Torvik, TeamRankings, Sports-Reference/CBB, PlayoffStatus.com¹ and a ✨ new addition ✨, the Dance Chance from Sports-Ratings.com.

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🏀 2024-25 NCAA Tournament Odds and Probabilities 📊

How this works: Each source was compiled to create a meta-rating of point differential per 100 possessions relative to a D-I average team. Those ratings were used to create win probabilities for each NCAA tournament game based on a historical logistic regression, and the bracket was simulated 2,500 times to track the most likely winners.

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🏀 2024-25 NCAA Tournament Mid-Season Meta-Forecast 📊

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Filed under: College Basketball

1. Since PlayoffStatus only lists the chance to make the Round of 64, their odds were adjusted based on seed probabilities to reflect the chance of a First Four team coming from each seed number.