🏀2025 NCAA Tournament Forecast 📊
Track each Division I men's basketball team's odds to win the 2025 NCAA basketball tourney.
In the spirit of BracketMatrix, the following page contains a composite of probabilities to advance through — and before that, make the Round of 68 in — the 2024-25 NCAA Division I men's basketball tournament. The current component team ratings (for the bracket odds) and/or forecast models (for the mid-season forecast) are from: ESPN Analytics (BPI), Ken Pomeroy, Bart Torvik, TeamRankings, Sports-Reference/CBB, PlayoffStatus.com1 and a ✨ new addition ✨, the Dance Chance from Sports-Ratings.com.
🏀 2024-25 NCAA Tournament Odds and Probabilities 📊
How this works: Each source was compiled to create a meta-rating of point differential per 100 possessions relative to a D-I average team. Those ratings were used to create win probabilities for each NCAA tournament game based on a historical logistic regression, and the bracket was simulated 2,500 times to track the most likely winners.
🏀 2024-25 NCAA Tournament Mid-Season Meta-Forecast 📊
Filed under: College Basketball
Since PlayoffStatus only lists the chance to make the Round of 64, their odds were adjusted based on seed probabilities to reflect the chance of a First Four team coming from each seed number.
Do you plan on doing a women's bracket analysis as well?
Neil, ESPN being ridiculously low on Louisville I guess was pretty accurate to the committee in hindsight