A related analytics project might be in which sports is it worth the most to watch the beginning. A methodology could be to use the closing moneyline as a proxy for initial win probability and compare the halftime win probability (a bigger difference would suggest more value in watching the first half).
I've had a similar thought, of trying to quantify "leverage" throughout a game across different sports. My rough sense is that baseball probably would end up with the highest leverage early in the game, in that a 4-run first inning could have a huge impact on win probability, with basketball by far the most back-weighted.
I loved the Elam Ending All Star Games. I do love a good buzzer beater, but removing any incentive to foul takes precedence for me. Start with three 10-minute periods, then take the average score of the losing team from those periods and add it to the leading team's score for the Target. Make it happen Neil!
A related analytics project might be in which sports is it worth the most to watch the beginning. A methodology could be to use the closing moneyline as a proxy for initial win probability and compare the halftime win probability (a bigger difference would suggest more value in watching the first half).
I've had a similar thought, of trying to quantify "leverage" throughout a game across different sports. My rough sense is that baseball probably would end up with the highest leverage early in the game, in that a 4-run first inning could have a huge impact on win probability, with basketball by far the most back-weighted.
That's smart!
I loved the Elam Ending All Star Games. I do love a good buzzer beater, but removing any incentive to foul takes precedence for me. Start with three 10-minute periods, then take the average score of the losing team from those periods and add it to the leading team's score for the Target. Make it happen Neil!
It would be interesting to see how baseball compares now to before the pitch clock.
Ask and ye shall receive! (an estimate, at least, haha) https://substack.com/@neilpaine/note/c-96158515