What Game 1 Upsets Did to the Thunder, Celtics and Cavs’ NBA Title Chances
And do I have jinxing powers previously unseen in the history of the universe?
Do you ever feel like you have the jinxing powers of the entire cosmos behind you — or is that just me?1
Yes, just days after I wrote this…
…all three of the heavy favorites to win the 2025 NBA title lost the opening games of their series. On Sunday, the Cavs dug themselves an early deficit against the Pacers at home that they only briefly climbed out of before falling short at the end. And on Monday, both the defending champion Celtics and rising-power Thunder had second-half win probabilities in excess of 95 percent, only to blow both games.
And so, what I called the “holy trinity” of 2025 NBA teams, the Thunder, Celtics and Cavaliers, are now a combined 0-3 in Round 2 of the playoffs.
What did this do to their overall odds of winning the title? Here’s a before-and-after for our chart from Friday’s post:
Certainly, it put a dent of some sort in their chances. After combining for a nearly 90 percent chance to win the championship a few days ago, now that figure is down to… 80 percent. The Thunder seemed to take the biggest hit, but that might be because the model and oddsmakers like the West’s other challengers more than those on offer from the East. (Boston and Cleveland kind of barely budged in their composite number, despite the losses.)
But while there indeed seemed to be something strangely cosmic to the trio of losses, and especially the twin collapses on Monday night — as if the basketball gods were saying a seemingly predictable season was not going to shed its potential chaos without a fight — these were, in the bigger picture, just three games. Boston and OKC are still heavy favorites to win their series, and while the stats-only version of my model gives a very slight nod to Indy over Cleveland, the betting market is still solidly backing the Cavs.
In other words, the holy trinity is still likely to arise in the end… but for at least a few days, they’ve certainly made us question a faith that once seemed unshakeable.
Filed under: NBA
Me and Jim Cramer, I suppose.