The Week That Was (April 15-19, 2024)
A roundup of what I wrote, read, watched, etc. over the past week.
In this space on Saturdays, I do a weekly round-up of sorts: Sifting through what I wrote that you might have missed during the week, what I’ve been reading and watching myself, and some other fun things that have been going on. Let me know what you think about the format in the comments (or email me!1), and if there are running sections you’d like to see on a regular basis.
What I did this week
Stealing a bit from Will Leitch’s newsletter format, here are the things I wrote or podcasted about during the previous week, sorted in descending order by quality, popularity and/or current relevance.
🏀 NBA playoffs preview with Neil Paine 🎧 (
) - In a nostalgic throwback to the old days of FiveThirtyEight sports, and I sat down to talk about our picks in the first round of this year’s NBA playoffs — along with what various stats, models and heuristics think of the different contenders. For instance, do we trust the Celtics over the Nuggets as favorites? And how much should OKC’s lack of playoff experience be held against the No. 1 seed out West?🏒 How this year's Stanley Cup contenders mirror past winners (ESPN+, $) - Ahead of the NHL playoffs, I looked at the past Cup winners whose distribution of Goals Above Replacement across their roster was the most similar to the top contenders of 2024 — the theory being that those past champs can provide a blueprint for how this year’s teams could win.
⚾ Anthony Volpe’s Arrival as a Star Could Mean Big Things for the Yankees - Step aside, Juan Soto: the biggest factor in the Yankees’ hot start is actually a young shortstop who was anointed as the Next Derek Jeter last season (and endured a difficult, unfair rookie season in the N.Y. media fishbowl).
⚾ The White Sox Fumbled Away Their Future in Historic Fashion - Just a few years ago, the Chicago White Sox looked like a future champion — if not a future dynasty. Now they have the worst record in MLB. What the heck happened??
🏀 Five deciding factors that can make these playoffs different for the Sixers (Philadelphia Inquirer) - On the eve of the 76ers’ play-in game, I wrote about what needs to change for this to truly be “the year” in Philly.
🏒 The Stanley Cup Might Depend on Which Underperforming Goalie Steps Up - Netminders can be difficult to predict, but this is ridiculous. I found that an inordinate number of this season’s Cup contenders are counting on formerly good (or even great) goalies to bounce back from underwhelming regular seasons and carry them to glory.
🏒 What Was the Arizona Coyotes’ Legacy? - This was a sad week for hockey fans in Arizona, as it was announced that the Coyotes will be moving to Utah effective next season. I looked back on the team’s doomed run in the desert, and how things didn’t necessarily have to be this way.
🏀 Joel Embiid gives the Sixers a rare Olympic superstar — and makes Team USA even better (Philadelphia Inquirer) - With the 2024 U.S. Olympic men’s basketball team basically set, I compared its talent level versus previous versions — with a focus on Joel Embiid, who chose to play for America over the host, France (giving the 76ers just their second active Olympian of the post-Dream Team era).
💰 Numlock Sunday: Neil Paine tracks the economy through sports - Last Sunday, I spoke with my friend (and yes, another former 538 colleague)
for his interview series. We talked about the piece I wrote for Sherwood News on how stadium names explain the U.S. economy.🏀 HIGH STAKES: NBA Superstars & Teams with the Most to Gain — and Lose — This Week (
) - Royce was kind enough to ask me to contribute to his compilation of takes on which play-in participants would get the most out of making the playoffs proper.
Some interesting things I read/watched this week
⚾ Sammy T. Hughes: The Problem with The Hall by
(Note: I don’t link Gary’s nearly enough. His art is amazing, and so are the stories of the players depicted.)♟️ A Chess Formula Is Taking Over the World by Jacob Stern, The Atlantic (Note: Jacob interviewed me for this story about the rise of Elo ratings across many different domains.)
🏈 The complicated and uncertain value of elite tight end prospects by
🏀 The NBA playoffs really are different. The main reason is a simple one by
🏒 Let's take a moment to remember the human element of this by
⚾ I still have 2 big questions about the Shohei Ohtani case by
⚾ Fritz and Susanne and Mike and Marilyn (1973) and 🏈 "I don't like to be pushed" (1969) by
🏁 Short tracks stymie NASCAR’s Next Gen race car by Diandra Leslie-Pelecky, NBC Sports
⌚ How the Luxury Watch Industry is Zeroing in on Female Sports Fanfare by
🏀 The H.U.M.A.N. poll revisited by
SNAP Judgment NBA and NHL playoff predictions
I tend to think the prediction model dashboards serve as a good synthesis of what my “official” predictions would be if I’d written out a full-fledged playoff preview (instead of coming down with the flu this week, which is what actually happened 🤒).
But sometimes, you also have to just have some fun with your picks instead of relying religiously on the probabilities. That’s where the patented SNAP (Statistics Not Applied to Produce) Judgement predictions come in. For both the NBA and NHL, I’m offering up these largely vibes-based (and possibly quite inaccurate!) predictions to counteract all of those stodgy statistical forecasts. They’re based on a combo of what I think would be cool to see happen and what still feels at least vaguely plausible.
(What’s the point of these? Mainly, I figured I should get some brackets written down somewhere here on the blog, in case they end up looking good. Otherwise, we’ll be sure to memory-hole these bad boys, LOL.)
Old YouTube game(s) of the week
2002 Eastern Conference 1st Round, Charlotte Hornets at Orlando Magic
Music to play us out
John Mayer, "83"
Filed under: Weekly Round-up
I’m at neil[dot]paine[at]gmail[dot]com.