Sometimes the numbers reveal insights that you are not aware of. Other times, less so. They can often just confirm what your senses are telling you, which is valuable as well. To your point regarding the consistency of your predictive metrics and the Celtics dominance throughout the year, the metrics this season seemed to be of the latter category - merely confirming what should have also been obvious to a casual observer.
Unfortunately, that would apparently exclude most of the sports media who tonight still believe Luka will win it in 8. The dominance of Boston and the flaws of Dallas and their ball dominant star were right in front of us for all to see. Yet, as was said in the 90s, "all the lights that light the way are blinding." Never truer than tonight.
The TV pregame show was a disaster for me. It felt like 80% of airtime was spent on Luka Doncic and how the Mavs now have clear momentum instead of the team up 3-1. I lost count how many bad takes I had to endure.
One "insider" instructed me that Dallas would attack and tire the deeper and more talented Celtics. Another tried to convince me that Dallas had figured out Boston in Game 4 and therefore was more than a one game winner - having also won the fourth quarter of Game 3. This, they asserted, was a definite trend in favor of the Mavs that outweighed their three losses. One proffered that Boston "can't win without Porzingas," despite having done so throughout the Playoffs. Then, one highly touted front office person on the desk noted that Boston hasn't scored a lot in the series...while completely ignoring that Dallas had never broken 100. Point differential kinda matters, doesn't it?
How did they get it so wrong for so long? It's a legitimate question that merits some analysis.
In the end as the confetti fell, Doris Burke dutifully and gently noted the foolishness of those who bought into the "best player on the floor," silliness that you highlight as well. I hoped that she might also point out how poorly the Western Conference performed relative to expectations after hearing for so long from the same band of experts that the illegitimate Celtics had such an easy path to the title. I remain convinced that it was Dallas who had the easier path as I have pointed out before in comments. Alas, Doris stopped at one solid criticism.
The only argument that could be made I suppose, was that Boston dodged a bullet when Minnesota upset Denver. But everyone was too busy worshiping at the altar of Anthony Edwards to see it. The Nuggets style would have pushed the series deeper for sure.
The open rooting for teams by the media seemed to reach a sad crescendo this year with even alum Dan Patrick saying he was embarrassed by ESPN's overt fandom for the Knicks. Then came the Mavs and, well, rinse, repeat. Even the Stanley Cup has not been immune with one color commentator in Round One sheepishly defending an over-the-top reaction by saying "we're not allowed to root for teams, but we can root for people."
Really? When did that show up on the menu? Her candor does explain I suppose the continued rooting for Connor McDavid I suppose.
In the end, good numbers - like those here - can bring clarity to thoughts and viewpoints and banish the dumb ideas and cognitive bias demons from our heads when speaking about these things. Here's hoping that more in the sports media industrial complex will read your outstanding objective work and embrace it even if all the roads that lead them here are winding.
Thank you, as always, Grant, for your insightful commentary. First of all, I LOL-ed at "most of the sports media who tonight still believe Luka will win it in 8". But I also thought this was interesting:
"The only argument that could be made I suppose, was that Boston dodged a bullet when Minnesota upset Denver. But everyone was too busy worshiping at the altar of Anthony Edwards to see it."
I was listening to Bill Simmons -- who I generally like -- a month ago, and he had a pod where he basically went full fan-fiction on Edwards not just sweeping Denver, making the Finals or winning Finals MVP for the T-Wolves this year, but also if he went on to become the biggest star in the NBA for the next few years. (https://open.spotify.com/episode/2K5EBkTTrLebezaT2oCHUA?si=VtSkrqsKRc2DYzB6ko14-w) It just felt so premature to me, but it helps explain why so many were on the Dallas bandwagon. If you just saw Dallas beat Minnesota fairly easily... and Minnesota has the guy your head-canon has already declared is Jordan... how good must Dallas be??
Neil, thank so much for your kind and thoughtful remarks here. I couldn't agree more with you here, and the Simmons reaction to Edwards is not something I had previously heard. Very interesting.
BTW, love the use of "fan-fiction" - which was certainly on full display this morning. Suddenly, everyone is now saying the Celtics are a "dynasty" (as if all those banners weren't enough evidence depending on your historical context) and should win at least three more titles over the next 4 years or so.
My neck hurt from the intellectual whiplash. I mean we haven't had that spirit here since 2018 when LeBron entered the Hotel LA Lakers and was a lock to win three too, complete with pink champagne on ice. What he found out of course is that you can check out any time you like but you can never leave. Guarantees in life are funny that way.
Thanks again and please do continue your terrific work here.
Sometimes the numbers reveal insights that you are not aware of. Other times, less so. They can often just confirm what your senses are telling you, which is valuable as well. To your point regarding the consistency of your predictive metrics and the Celtics dominance throughout the year, the metrics this season seemed to be of the latter category - merely confirming what should have also been obvious to a casual observer.
Unfortunately, that would apparently exclude most of the sports media who tonight still believe Luka will win it in 8. The dominance of Boston and the flaws of Dallas and their ball dominant star were right in front of us for all to see. Yet, as was said in the 90s, "all the lights that light the way are blinding." Never truer than tonight.
The TV pregame show was a disaster for me. It felt like 80% of airtime was spent on Luka Doncic and how the Mavs now have clear momentum instead of the team up 3-1. I lost count how many bad takes I had to endure.
One "insider" instructed me that Dallas would attack and tire the deeper and more talented Celtics. Another tried to convince me that Dallas had figured out Boston in Game 4 and therefore was more than a one game winner - having also won the fourth quarter of Game 3. This, they asserted, was a definite trend in favor of the Mavs that outweighed their three losses. One proffered that Boston "can't win without Porzingas," despite having done so throughout the Playoffs. Then, one highly touted front office person on the desk noted that Boston hasn't scored a lot in the series...while completely ignoring that Dallas had never broken 100. Point differential kinda matters, doesn't it?
How did they get it so wrong for so long? It's a legitimate question that merits some analysis.
In the end as the confetti fell, Doris Burke dutifully and gently noted the foolishness of those who bought into the "best player on the floor," silliness that you highlight as well. I hoped that she might also point out how poorly the Western Conference performed relative to expectations after hearing for so long from the same band of experts that the illegitimate Celtics had such an easy path to the title. I remain convinced that it was Dallas who had the easier path as I have pointed out before in comments. Alas, Doris stopped at one solid criticism.
The only argument that could be made I suppose, was that Boston dodged a bullet when Minnesota upset Denver. But everyone was too busy worshiping at the altar of Anthony Edwards to see it. The Nuggets style would have pushed the series deeper for sure.
The open rooting for teams by the media seemed to reach a sad crescendo this year with even alum Dan Patrick saying he was embarrassed by ESPN's overt fandom for the Knicks. Then came the Mavs and, well, rinse, repeat. Even the Stanley Cup has not been immune with one color commentator in Round One sheepishly defending an over-the-top reaction by saying "we're not allowed to root for teams, but we can root for people."
Really? When did that show up on the menu? Her candor does explain I suppose the continued rooting for Connor McDavid I suppose.
In the end, good numbers - like those here - can bring clarity to thoughts and viewpoints and banish the dumb ideas and cognitive bias demons from our heads when speaking about these things. Here's hoping that more in the sports media industrial complex will read your outstanding objective work and embrace it even if all the roads that lead them here are winding.
Thank you, as always, Grant, for your insightful commentary. First of all, I LOL-ed at "most of the sports media who tonight still believe Luka will win it in 8". But I also thought this was interesting:
"The only argument that could be made I suppose, was that Boston dodged a bullet when Minnesota upset Denver. But everyone was too busy worshiping at the altar of Anthony Edwards to see it."
I was listening to Bill Simmons -- who I generally like -- a month ago, and he had a pod where he basically went full fan-fiction on Edwards not just sweeping Denver, making the Finals or winning Finals MVP for the T-Wolves this year, but also if he went on to become the biggest star in the NBA for the next few years. (https://open.spotify.com/episode/2K5EBkTTrLebezaT2oCHUA?si=VtSkrqsKRc2DYzB6ko14-w) It just felt so premature to me, but it helps explain why so many were on the Dallas bandwagon. If you just saw Dallas beat Minnesota fairly easily... and Minnesota has the guy your head-canon has already declared is Jordan... how good must Dallas be??
Neil, thank so much for your kind and thoughtful remarks here. I couldn't agree more with you here, and the Simmons reaction to Edwards is not something I had previously heard. Very interesting.
BTW, love the use of "fan-fiction" - which was certainly on full display this morning. Suddenly, everyone is now saying the Celtics are a "dynasty" (as if all those banners weren't enough evidence depending on your historical context) and should win at least three more titles over the next 4 years or so.
My neck hurt from the intellectual whiplash. I mean we haven't had that spirit here since 2018 when LeBron entered the Hotel LA Lakers and was a lock to win three too, complete with pink champagne on ice. What he found out of course is that you can check out any time you like but you can never leave. Guarantees in life are funny that way.
Thanks again and please do continue your terrific work here.