Trout’s career is of course not squandered potential. But I’ll always wonder what could have been with no injuries and if the MLB knew how to market a star
Neil, curious about how much of the Phillies hot start is about a soft early season schedule. Admittedly, I haven't looked at it in depth, but as I see the score crawlers nightly I've been struck by just how bad their opponents seem to be night after night.
I saw where Fangraphs seems to have them (if I am reading it correctly) at only .534 the rest of the season for 91 wins. However, .534 might understate their 2nd half reversion if May and June are particularly soft as well.
Any idea on how their strength of schedule sits through May or June? Just curious about potential reversion as their schedule strengthens. Thanks as always.
You are correct that the Phillies have played the easiest schedule by average opposing Elo rating thus far:
1. Angels (1520)
2. Rockies (1519)
3. Yankees (1516)
4. Cubs (1514)
5. Cardinals (1513)
6. Blue Jays (1513)
7. Brewers (1512)
8. Giants (1512)
9. Braves (1511)
10. Astros (1511)
11. Nationals (1510)
12. Mariners (1509)
13. Reds (1508)
14. Pirates (1506)
15. Mets (1505)
16. Rangers (1505)
17. Padres (1505)
18. White Sox (1504)
19. Athletics (1504)
20. Dodgers (1503)
21. Red Sox (1503)
22. Royals (1502)
23. Diamondbacks (1501)
24. Guardians (1499)
25. Tigers (1495)
26. Marlins (1494)
27. Rays (1493)
28. Twins (1490)
29. Orioles (1489)
30. Phillies (1485)
But of course, a team's own Elo rating already "knows" this, and the Phillies still rank 3rd overall (1551) behind the Braves (1564) and Dodgers (1560). So I don't think it's fair to think schedule has been the main factor in their improved start. For comparison's sake, they had the 12th-easiest schedule at this point a year ago and and 6th-easiest schedule in 2022, yet still had losing records.
That will sting...he is having a great season so far, although his HRs are down as I recall and his BABIP is over .400. Still, he was hot with an OPS+ of 145 and speed numbers still high at age 31. Having an early soft schedule as you suggested, should soften the blow. Thanks again!
Trout’s career is of course not squandered potential. But I’ll always wonder what could have been with no injuries and if the MLB knew how to market a star
Neil, curious about how much of the Phillies hot start is about a soft early season schedule. Admittedly, I haven't looked at it in depth, but as I see the score crawlers nightly I've been struck by just how bad their opponents seem to be night after night.
I saw where Fangraphs seems to have them (if I am reading it correctly) at only .534 the rest of the season for 91 wins. However, .534 might understate their 2nd half reversion if May and June are particularly soft as well.
Any idea on how their strength of schedule sits through May or June? Just curious about potential reversion as their schedule strengthens. Thanks as always.
You are correct that the Phillies have played the easiest schedule by average opposing Elo rating thus far:
1. Angels (1520)
2. Rockies (1519)
3. Yankees (1516)
4. Cubs (1514)
5. Cardinals (1513)
6. Blue Jays (1513)
7. Brewers (1512)
8. Giants (1512)
9. Braves (1511)
10. Astros (1511)
11. Nationals (1510)
12. Mariners (1509)
13. Reds (1508)
14. Pirates (1506)
15. Mets (1505)
16. Rangers (1505)
17. Padres (1505)
18. White Sox (1504)
19. Athletics (1504)
20. Dodgers (1503)
21. Red Sox (1503)
22. Royals (1502)
23. Diamondbacks (1501)
24. Guardians (1499)
25. Tigers (1495)
26. Marlins (1494)
27. Rays (1493)
28. Twins (1490)
29. Orioles (1489)
30. Phillies (1485)
But of course, a team's own Elo rating already "knows" this, and the Phillies still rank 3rd overall (1551) behind the Braves (1564) and Dodgers (1560). So I don't think it's fair to think schedule has been the main factor in their improved start. For comparison's sake, they had the 12th-easiest schedule at this point a year ago and and 6th-easiest schedule in 2022, yet still had losing records.
Neil, awesome and super helpful. Many thanks again.
Well and now Turner is out 6 weeks, so we'll see what that does to them: https://www.mlb.com/news/trea-turner-sore-left-hamstring
That will sting...he is having a great season so far, although his HRs are down as I recall and his BABIP is over .400. Still, he was hot with an OPS+ of 145 and speed numbers still high at age 31. Having an early soft schedule as you suggested, should soften the blow. Thanks again!