The Commanders’ Journey Is Just Beginning. The Bills’ Might Be at a Crossroads.
After Championship Sunday, Buffalo searches for answers while Washington dreams big.
There will be plenty of time over the coming weeks to talk about the Chiefs-Eagles Super Bowl rematch, including K.C.’s quest for a third straight championship and Philly’s bid to avenge their loss from Super Bowl LVII. For what it’s worth, my 🏈 NFL Playoff Predictor 🏆 model has the Eagles set as favorites with a 59 percent chance to win — granting that the forecast doesn’t fully know that you can never bet too strongly on Patrick Mahomes:
🏈 2024-25 NFL Playoff Predictor 🏆
But before all that, we should take a moment to dwell on the teams that just exited the postseason stage: the Buffalo Bills and Washington Commanders. One is facing an offseason of soul-searching after yet another loss to a familiar rival, while the other is embarking on a future down a path that could lead to similar things, or to greater heights.
For Buffalo, the pain of losing to Kansas City yet again in the playoffs is immeasurable. I wrote last week that the Bills and Chiefs were just the sixth combination of teams in NFL history to meet at least four times in five postseasons. But among all of the other recurring matchups on that list, none were swept by one team like how K.C. has now gone 4-0 against Buffalo in that span.
This was one of Buffalo’s better chances to win, too, as they had the superior odds going into the game (according to the Playoff Predictor) — despite playing on the road — and had the better statistical résumé during the regular season, both in terms of the higher SRS rating and QB Josh Allen posting many more Approximate Value (AV) than his counterpart, Mahomes:
None of it mattered in the end, however, when K.C.’s trademark clutch execution was juxtaposed against Buffalo’s failures to deliver enough in key moments — aided by what appeared to be a suspect spot on a critical fourth-down run by Allen. And beyond the ever-present conversation about officiating in Chiefs games, Mahomes simply outplayed Allen and K.C. was more efficient moving the ball. All the Bills could have asked for was a chance to drive for the win in the final moments, and they had that — but ran out of downs when Kansas City’s pressure got to Allen.
What’s next for Buffalo? The Bills have to make decisions on a few role players, but they can run back pretty much the same core for another go-round if they want. Will they, though? This Bills team now has the most regular-season wins (61) and playoff wins (7) of any NFL team in a five-season span with zero Super Bowl appearances since 1966:
That’s a pretty depressing stat. But then again, everything is relative. While Buffalo faces questions about their ability to break through, Washington fans are daring to dream again after a transformative season.
For instance, the Commanders would be ecstatic with building that same level of consistent success, after the Dan Snyder era of team ownership had produced just one season of double-digit victories (2012) and zero playoff wins over the previous 18 years.
But in just their second season under new owner Josh Harris — and their first with coach Dan Quinn and sensational rookie QB Jayden Daniels — Washington went 12-5 and won as many postseason contests (2) as they’d had in the preceding 25 years combined. Daniels in particular seemed to emerge as arguably the greatest rookie (at any position) in modern NFL history, and certainly had a debut QB season for the ages.
Even in falling short against the Eagles in the NFC title game on Sunday, Daniels ended up with a higher Total QBR (83.2) than his counterpart on the other side, two-time NFC champion QB Jalen Hurts (72.3). The sky could truly be the limit for Daniels going forward.
But these playoffs remind us that the road ahead is rough.
A year ago, Houston’s C.J. Stroud was in Daniels’ shoes, drawing GOAT-rookie-QB chatter; this year, his numbers were way down, even below average, and his Texans could not muster enough offense to get past Mahomes and K.C. in the postseason.
Meanwhile, Allen would seem to be an incredible role model for Daniels to emulate, as a big, strong-armed mobile QB with the potential to shred defenses in many different ways. And the Bills clearly struck Hall of Fame jacket gold when they drafted Allen at No. 7 overall in 2018; he has the most total AV from ages 24-28 of any QB in modern NFL history:
It hasn’t been enough, though — not when the No. 2 QB on the list is Mahomes, who has come armed with a mix of better defenses (particularly recently) and an unstoppable track record in crunch-time moments.
Daniels is five years younger than Mahomes and four years younger than Allen. Barring serious regression, we will probably see plenty of him on the playoff stage in the years to come. But even if this is the start of something big in Washington, it always remains to be seen what an up-and-coming team’s ceiling truly is. Daniels could become the next Allen, but for Washington to avoid a fate like Buffalo’s, they’ll need to overcome the same gauntlet of opponents that has defined this era of the NFL.
For now, though, the Commanders’ journey is just beginning, while Buffalo stands at a crossroads — with yet another offseason ahead spent thinking about what might have been.
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