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Welcome to Wednesday, where we’re coming off a rare night of relative calm in the NBA and NHL playoffs. All of the teams that were expected to win their games Tuesday — the Pistons and Thunder on the court and the Avalanche on the ice — did indeed win, with the former teams taking matching 1-0 leads and Colorado extending its lead over Minnesota to 2-0. (The Avs have now scored 14 goals in two games this series, which is pretty tough to beat!) But just because there were no surprises for one postseason night doesn’t mean we haven’t seen them in other sports — we’ll talk about baseball’s biggest movers since Opening Day below — nor does it mean there aren’t some shakeups in store for us in tonight’s action. With regard to the latter, here’s what we’re watching:
🗓️ TONIGHT’S DANCE
The Main Events
All listed times are Eastern. 🚨= Elimination game
NBA Playoffs:
🏀 Sixers (28%) at Knicks (72%),* Game 2 (NY leads 1-0) - 7 p.m. (ESPN)
🏀 T-Wolves (22%) at Spurs (78%), Game 2 (MIN leads 1-0) - 9:30 p.m. (ESPN)
NHL Playoffs:
🏒 Canadiens (45%) at Sabres (55%), Game 1 (Series tied 0-0) - 7 p.m. (TNT)
🏒 Ducks (40%) at Golden Knights (60%), Game 2 (VGK leads 1-0) - 9:30 p.m. (TNT)
MLB:
⚾ Dodgers (66%) at Astros (34%) - 2:10 p.m. (MLB.tv)
⚾ Braves (45%) at Mariners (55%) - 4:10 p.m. (MLB.tv)
⚾ Athletics (38%) at Phillies (62%) - 6:40 p.m. (MLB.tv)
⚾ Rangers (35%) at Yankees (65%) - 7:05 p.m. (MLB Network)
Soccer:
⚽ Champions League: Bayern Munich (61%) vs. PSG (24%), semifinal, second leg (PSG leads 5-4) - 3 p.m. (Paramount+) 🚨
Tennis:
🎾 Italian Open, men’s and women’s early rounds
🔍 FIND THE EDGE
Ch-ch-ch-ch-changes
Today marks exactly six weeks to the day since the 2026 MLB season technically began, so we figured now might be an interesting moment to check in on how the prediction markets have responded to each team’s start to the year, in terms of their odds to make and/or win the World Series.
Here’s a plot of the changes in each team’s odds since March 25 to win their league’s pennant and, more importantly, to win the championship:
The biggest winners? The New York Yankees, which are up from 17% to win the American League and 9% to win the championship on Opening Day (well, Opening Night — remember that Netflix game in San Francisco?) to 34% for the pennant and 19% for the title today. Why the huge change? Mainly, the team’s pitching (led by Cam Schlittler and Max Fried) has proved more formidable than expected, while Aaron Judge’s usual excellence is now accompanied by great seasons from the likes of Ben Rice and Cody Bellinger as well. By FanGraphs’ luck-adjusted metrics, the Yankees have been baseball’s top team in the early going.
Joining them among the risers are the Braves and Cubs (which never seem to lose a game these days), the star-powered Reds, and a few familiar contenders coming back from down cycles in the Rays and Cardinals.
At the other end, the Miserable Mets have obviously failed to meet expectations — they’re 13-22, though maybe winning a bit more recently — causing their odds to plummet from 12% to win the National League and 7% to win the World Series in preseason to 4% and 2% now, respectively. Also near the bottom, the Red Sox and Phillies have already fired their managers — always a sign that the odds are slipping, though both teams have been bouncing back since the moves.
Then there are the teams coming off deep postseason runs in 2025: the Blue Jays and Mariners, which went seven games in last October’s AL Championship Series, are both down 4% in their title odds after entering the year as cofavorites (with the Yankees) to win the AL. Both teams are below .500 right now, and Toronto has a -19 run differential.
And the Dodgers are a fascinating entry near the bottom of the list. At 22-14, a 99-win pace per 162 games, LA is far from bad, even if their best player is having a rare slump at the moment (see below) and the usual injuries are cropping up. But while their odds to win the NL haven’t dipped too much — down just 1% — their title chances are down as much as any team outside of the Mets.
How is that remotely justified for a team that’s winning and still has a ton of stars? It may simply come down to the presence of stronger-than-expected counter-candidates that might beat them, whether in the NL playoffs (Atlanta, Chicago, etc.) or the World Series if, say, a Yankees rematch from 2024 happens. Or maybe it’s the same thing we’ve been seeing from the Dodgers in recent regular seasons — in which massive preseason superteam expectations don’t meet their record, but we forget that this team is built to win in October more than in May.
📊 CHART OF THE DAY
Shohei Cold-tani
Shohei Ohtani slumps are so rare that it’s hard to even conceive of them sometimes. But we are in one of those right now, as Ohtani is 0-for-24 in his past five games and, more broadly, has adjusted his workload recently — no longer appearing in the lineup as a hitter when he starts as a pitcher. The chart below shows Ohtani’s rolling Weighted On-Base Average (basically, his hitting performance) in 100-plate appearance windows since joining the Dodgers in 2024. While he’s had a few stretches with “slumps” like this season — and we use scare quotes because he’s still above average — those have been few and far between. Only two distinct stretches (both in 2024) have seen his rolling wOBA dip as low as it is now:
❄️ STAY FROSTY
What else we’re reading
Smart, short reads we liked while building today’s odds.
🏟️ “Stadium Financing: A primer on how stadium financing works” by Nikola Vuković
🏀 “Modern Day Tanking Is Michael Jordan’s Fault” by TJ Highley
⚾ “300K’s in a season has gone the way of a 300-win career” by Mark Kolier
🏀 “How will expansion impact WNBA roster building?” by Matthew Coller
🏁 “Alex Zanardi Made You Believe” by me
👀 EYES UP
Next on deck…
Thursday (5/7)
🏀 NBA Playoffs: Cavs at Pistons, Game 2 (DET leads 1-0)
🏀 NBA Playoffs: Lakers at Thunder, Game 2 (OKC leads 1-0)
🏒 NHL Playoffs: Hurricanes at Flyers, Game 3 (CAR leads 2-0)
⚾ MLB: Rangers at Yankees
⚾ MLB: Athletics at Phillies
⚾ MLB: Orioles at Marlins
⚽ Europa League: Freiburg vs. Braga (Semifinal, Second Leg)
⚽ Europa League: Aston Villa vs. Nottingham Forest (Semifinal, Second Leg)
🎾 Tennis: Italian Open
⛳ Golf: Truist Championship (Quail Hollow Club - Charlotte, NC)
Friday (5/8)
🏀 NBA Playoffs: Knicks at Sixers, Game 3
🏀 NBA Playoffs: Spurs at T-Wolves, Game 3
🏒 NHL Playoffs: Canadiens at Sabres, Game 2
🏒 NHL Playoffs: Golden Knights at Ducks, Game 3
⚾ MLB: Braves at Dodgers
⚾ MLB: Yankees at Brewers
⚾ MLB: Cubs at Rangers
⚽ NWSL: Orlando Pride vs. North Carolina Courage
🎾 Tennis: Italian Open
⛳ Golf: Truist Championship
Saturday (5/9)
🏀 NBA Playoffs: Pistons at Cavs, Game 3
🏀 NBA Playoffs: Thunder at Lakers, Game 3
🏒 NHL Playoffs: Hurricanes at Flyers, Game 4
🏒 NHL Playoffs: Avalanche at Wild, Game 3 (COL leads 2-0)
⚾ MLB: Braves at Dodgers
⚾ MLB: Yankees at Brewers
⚾ MLB: Cubs at Rangers
⚽ Premier League: Liverpool vs. Chelsea
⚽ Premier League: Manchester City vs. Brentford
⚽ MLS: Toronto FC at Inter Miami CF
🎾 Tennis: Italian Open
⛳ Golf: Truist Championship
🥊 Fabio Wardley vs. Daniel Dubois (WBO heavyweight title)
🥊 UFC 328: Khamzat Chimaev vs. Sean Strickland
🏁 IndyCar: Sonsio Grand Prix (Indianapolis Motor Speedway Road Course)
🧠 Looking ahead
Stay tuned for more updates and in-depth analysis of these events and more as they unfold. We’ll be bringing you all the scores, highlights, and expert commentary.
Got a favorite team or sport you want us to cover more? Let us know!
All data current as of time of send.
— by Neil Paine
*Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.