Resetting The NHL Playoff Picture

After an incredible Round 1, where do the playoffs go next?

Whew! Now that Devils-Rangers Game 7 is in the books, we can all finally take a moment and collect ourselves after a pretty amazing opening round of the NHL playoffs. That’s not just a subjective assessment, either: If we look at a combination of series length — the average matchup this year went 6.25 games, second only to last season (6.38) among first rounds since 2006 — and upset rate (based on pre-series Elo ratings) — 37.5%, fourth-highest since ‘06 — you can make a strong case for Round 1 of the 2023 playoffs as the best first round since the lockout.

But now the playoff bracket is looking quite scrambled. So where do we go from here? Who are the remaining favorites? And what are the odds we get a truly ✨ special ✨ Stanley Cup Final matchup? Let’s unpack.

I’ll be the first to admit that these playoffs haven’t gone exactly the way I thought they would. While I suspected the Seattle Kraken might give the defending-champion Colorado Avalanche trouble, I would not have picked Seattle to win the series outright. And I most certainly would not have expected the mighty Bruins to collapse in historic fashion against the Florida Panthers, a team I have been down on since at least the second post in this Substack’s history.

But now that the two pre-playoff favorites by Elo are out — along with a few other clubs (Rangers; Lightning) that looked dangerous on paper going in — we’ve got quite a fascinating mix of contenders left over.

The nominal favorites from here on, at least in Elo, are the Edmonton Oilers, and it’s hard to argue with Connor McDavid and Co.’s output on offense in Round 1 against the L.A. Kings: 25 goals in 6 games. But they also allowed 20 markers, with goalie Stuart Skinner hardly serving as a brick wall between the pipes — accentuating what has been the main question mark about Edmonton all season (and most seasons of the McDavid Era, if we’re being honest). Combine that with the Vegas Golden Knights handling the Winnipeg Jets in somewhat more convincing fashion than I expected, and the Oilers are no lock for a second straight conference finals bid.

Over in the East, the Carolina Hurricanes and Toronto Maple Leafs check in next in the Cup-probability pecking order. While Carolina handled their business against the Islanders, the Canes managed just 16 goals in the 6-game series and must score more against a talented Devils team that traffics in pure offensive hockey. And though the Leafs did finally win a friggin’ playoff round for the first time in nearly two decades, they also did their damndest to give their fans a heart attack in the process, as per usual. They’re solid favorites against Florida, but trust must continue to be earned by this group, not given.

Of course, the presence of both Edmonton and Toronto in Round 2 gives us a rare moment with Canada having two strong candidates to break its painfully long Stanley Cup drought. By Elo’s estimation, there’s a 38% chance one of the two standard-bearers from the Great White North wins it all, and an 11% chance we get the 🍁 true Canadian dream 🍁: An all-Canada Oilers-Leafs Cup Final matchup. (That’s the one I’m rooting to happen, for the record.)

Among the rest of the field, Elo continues to be persistently down on the Devils — as it has been all season — but I agree with the bettors that they’re plenty terrifying.

And I have been on the Dallas Stars’ bandwagon practically all season, so why stop now? Against the Minnesota Wild in Round 1, Dallas had the best goals-per-game differential (+1.17) of any playoff team; they also had the best close-score Corsi of any team still active in the postseason. Seattle remains an intriguing underdog, but I really like the Stars’ combination of Jason Robertson/Roope Hintz/etc. on the offensive side with Miro Heiskanen manning the blueline and Jake Oettinger in net… although that group will probably need Joe Pavelski to return from concussion sooner rather than later, too.

But who’s going to win the Cup? Among teams still around in the tournament — sorry, Bruins — the best regular-season goal differentials belonged to the Oilers, Devils, Stars and Leafs, and I like those four to advance in Round 2. (Granting that I am very torn about this Hurricanes-Devils series.) But by Elo, those four clubs only have a combined 59% chance of winning it all by the time June rolls around. That means this is still anybody’s postseason to own — and if Round 1 was any indication, we’re going to be in for a wild ride before it’s all over.

CORRECTION (May 2, 2023, 8:27 a.m.): A previous version of this article incorrectly listed the upset rate for 2023’s first round as 62.5%. That was actually the series win rate for favorites; the upset rate was 37.5%.