What Did — And Didn't — Surprise Me In The NHL's Opening-Round Game 1s

Seattle might be dangerous; the Maple Leafs might be, well, the Maple Leafs.

What can we learn from a single game in each NHL playoff series? Probably not much. Research shows that it takes 6.3 NHL games to get the same amount of information about team talent as we get out of even 1 NFL game, for instance. So it’s important not to read too much into small samples of data from hockey (of all sports).

But where’s the fun in that? So at the risk of overreacting, here are some things that confirmed — or disputed — my pre-existing assumptions, now that every team has played Game 1 of its first-round series.

Confirmed: The Kraken have upset potential. Among the teams Colorado might have faced in Round 1 depending on whether it won or lost Game #82 of the regular season, Seattle was the scarier choice on paper. The Kraken ranked 10th in goal differential during the regular season (Colorado was 8th), largely on the strength of the NHL’s No. 4 offense; they also had a formula that could be extremely useful in a playoff setting. First, they were one of the top road teams in the league — much better than at home, in fact — and they were one of the best teams at winning after scoring first, in part because they had a stingy defense (No. 2 in fewest shots allowed) to help nurse an early lead. Both of those factors played to their advantage in Game 1 vs. the Avalanche, and indicated that Seattle might be a handful for the defending champs to deal with going forward.

Disputed: The Maple Leafs are finally primed to win the Cup. Going against a less-scary-than-usual version of the familiar playoff rival Tampa Bay Lightning, at home, with Tampa missing multiple key players due to injury? This should have been a statement opportunity for the Leafs. So, naturally, they lost 7-3 in a contest that was seldom very competitive — particularly not after a disastrous second-period sequence in which Toronto took a slashing penalty and allowed a power play goal, then Michael Bunting elbowed Erik Cernak in the head, the Bolts scored on the ensuing power play, the Leafs challenged the goal and lost (thus taking another penalty for delay of game) and then Tampa Bay scored another PP marker to make it a 6-2 game. While I don’t think this series is over by any means — particularly if Cernak and/or Victor Hedman miss extended time — the Leafs will regret losing this one, especially the way they lost it.

Confirmed: Vegas might not be as good as its seeding. Despite being the Western Conference’s No. 1 regular season team, there was surprisingly little in the Golden Knights’ resume that stood out as excellent, aside from its goaltending (and even that was on shakier ground due to late-season injuries). The Knights weren’t bad, of course, but they were just sort of… mid, in a lot of categories. Their saving grace in Round 1 seemed to be drawing Winnipeg, the second-worst team in the playoff field by SRS (only the Minnesota Wild were worse), but even that didn’t help Vegas much in a listless Game 1 that saw them get outshot 31-17 at home. I expect a better showing in Game 2, but you don’t want to give away early-series games to an underdog that has Connor Hellebuyck in net.

Disputed: Dallas and Edmonton are the West’s scariest contenders. The Dallas Stars seemed like a real slam-dunk pick to go deep into the playoffs: They were No. 4 in regular-season goal differential, facing the low-ranked Wild in Round 1, with the possibility of either the banged-up Avs or even the Kraken waiting in Round 2. Minnesota had different plans, of course, beating Dallas in double-OT early Tuesday morning and serving notice to folks like me that a scary team on paper has nothing guaranteed in the playoffs. Similarly, Edmonton was No. 2 in goal differential behind only the Bruins, and was plainly the best Oilers team of the Connor McDavid era. The L.A. Kings are no picnic as a first-round foe, but one could dream of the Oilers slipping past them, beating the Vegas/Winnipeg winner with ease, and the sky being the limit from there. Los Angeles also had different plans in OT of Game 1, spoiling Edmonton’s home-ice advantage and making them underdogs in the series. I still believe in both of these teams, but each Game 1 showed them to be more mortal than I had thought.

Confirmed: The Devils might not be ready to make a deep run… yet. Aside from Boston, Edmonton and Dallas, the other top-4 team in goal differential during the regular season was New Jersey — a huge climb from its No. 25 finish in 2021-22. I love a lot of things about this Devils squad, from their rush-happy transition offense to a surprisingly staunch defense (5th-fewest shots allowed per game). But they’re also the youngest team in the playoff field by far, and that combined with a near-total lack of playoff experience to make me question (see the 14:14 mark of this Couple of Goons podcast ep) if New Jersey was quite ready yet for the postseason stage. Playing the Rangers — another one of the scariest contenders outside Boston — in Round 1 didn’t help matters, either. Based on the history of similarly young/talented/playoff neophyte teams, it would not surprise me to see the Devils lose this series, but then go on to win the Cup next season.

Confirmed: There is no President’s Trophy curse. OK, so not many were expecting the Bruins to falter in Round 1 against Florida — the curse talk was being saved for a potential loss later on. But you have to admit the Panthers were an intriguing upset pick purely from a narrative standpoint (which is all the President’s Trophy Curse goes off of anyway): A team that itself had won the President’s Trophy the year before, only to be destroyed in one of the most humiliating playoff defeats ever, gets a new coach and a new postseason-friendly style of play, struggles to adapt for much of the regular season before coalescing down the stretch, then pulls off a historic upset over the most decorated team in NHL history? How delicious! Unfortunately, the Bruins seem to be having none of your Cinderella storytelling. According to FiveThirtyEight, Florida is the only playoff team who already has less than a 10% chance to make the second round.