Gaudreau, Huberdeau, Tkachuk and Friction Costs

Did everyone lose in the summer of 2022?

Few offseasons in recent memory were more tumultuous than the summer of 2022 was for the Florida Panthers and Calgary Flames.

Although both teams were coming off banner years — Florida had just obliterated its franchise high-water mark for single-season points; Calgary posted its highest point total in 33 years — each also faced looming financial decisions around key players. The Flames’ dynamic duo of Johnny Gaudreau (unrestricted) and Matthew Tkachuk (restricted) were both hitting free agency during the summer, and the Panthers’ Jonathan Huberdeau would be in the same boat the following offseason.

Everything came to a head over little more than a week’s time in July, when Gaudreau stunned the NHL world by spurning Calgary for the Columbus Blue Jackets, and the Flames and Panthers stunned the NHL world again by swapping Tkachuk for Huberdeau and defenseman MacKenzie Weegar. Just like that, three huge stars had new destinations for 2023 — and we had a very interesting natural experiment in the “portability” of performance when players go to new teams.

As it turns out, some performances have been more portable than others — and none have fully carried over. According to Goals Above Replacement (GAR) per 82 team games, every big name from the Flames and Panthers’ offseason carousel is on pace for a worse season in 2023 than in 2022. Tkachuk is on pace to produce 4.3 fewer GAR/82; Weegar is tracking to be down 6.4 GAR/82. And those declines are relatively modest when you consider that Huberdeau is on pace for 15.7 fewer GAR/82, and Gaudreau is on pace to lose a staggering 20.3 GAR/82 compared with his 2022 output.

(You could throw Nazem Kadri into the mix as well; Calgary added him last August as another offensive replacement for Tkachuk and Gaudreau. After netting 17.0 GAR/82 with the Stanley Cup-winning Avalanche last season, he’s on pace for only 11.3 GAR/82 this year.)

All of the teams involved have also disappointed. Florida (26-29) and Calgary (25-28), while still in the playoff hunt, both carry sub-.500 records deep into the schedule, a far cry from last year’s stellar regular season performances. And Columbus (16-37), which was supposed to be an intriguing candidate to improve on its 37-45 record a year ago, has instead been one of the worst teams in the league. (Perhaps that is a good thing in the long run: they are currently favorites to pick Connor Bedard No. 1 in the draft. But this year, it’s been a disaster.)

So you could make the case that everyone lost the offseason roster shuffle. And maybe that was always going to happen. With the exception of Weegar, who was better by GAR/82 in 2021 (17.5) than 2022 (12.7), each player was fighting the regression to the mean that hangs over any sequel to a career year. But I think there’s also something else at work here, which should give teams pause about any plug-and-play notions around adding star newcomers.

In finance, there are friction costs associated with any transaction — assorted additional fees and payments that are incurred when assets change hands, beyond just the ticket price of the assets themselves. These costs come in many forms and have many reasons for existing, but they serve to disincentivize transactions because they are a hidden drag on the benefits of a deal.

In the case of hockey players changing teams, there are probably real costs to plugging an established player into a new system with new teammates, no matter how productive they had been in their previous role. Building chemistry and tinkering with strategies to maximize a player’s talent takes time.

For example, Calgary coach Darryl Sutter has tried many tactics for restoring Huberdeau to his Florida form, from cycling through potential linemate combinations to outright begging him to shoot more than the near-career low 1.58 shots per game he’s been putting up. Nothing has seemed to work, but the Flames have to keep trying, as they just signed Huberdeau to an 8-year, $84 million extension in August.

Gaudreau might simply benefit from better teammates, as Columbus has been missing Zach Werenski and Jakub Voracek for most of the season (and Patrik Laine for some of it as well). Nobody would be surprised if, say, playing with Bedard in a few years reinvigorated Gaudreau’s form. But you also pay a guy $68 million over 7 years to be able to elevate a team above its circumstances, not to be dragged down by them.

Tkachuk probably fares the best here by far; at least he is still on pace for 40 adjusted goals and 106 adjusted points. Florida’s defense and goaltending have collapsed, but the hometown All-Star MVP has kept the Panthers’ offense from sinking too far despite losing Huberdeau and getting clunker performances out of Sasha Barkov and Sam Reinhart (again, there are those pesky friction costs of asking your existing talent to adjust to new situations).

Overall, the travails of the Flames and Panthers (not to mention the Blue Jackets) should serve as a cautionary tale about expecting new players to seamlessly fit into your club. Last summer, some of the best teams in the league swapped around a handful of the best talents in the league. And though it makes little sense on paper, the result was that everyone (players and teams) ended up worse off.