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Hello on this Thursday in sports, where we continue being treated to wild, thrilling action at the World Cup. Yesterday, England flirted with disaster against DR Congo before Harry Kane scored a pair of late goals to advance, while Senegal led Belgium 2-0 into the 86th minute before the Red Devils forced extra time — eventually leading to a controversial late penalty that won Belgium the game. And in the nightcap, the US beat Bosnia-Herzegovina 2-0 despite losing striker Flo Balogun to a red card on, let’s just say a questionable VAR decision by the referee. The pyrrhic victory was Team USA’s first in the knockouts since 2002 and advanced them to the Round of 16, but Balogun will be automatically suspended for the next game against Belgium, in which the two teams are basically each a coin-flip to win. We’ll have more on the USMNT’s next World Cup match when we return to your inbox on the other side of the July 4 trading holiday Monday; for now, here’s what we’re watching today in sports:
🗓️ TONIGHT’S DANCE
The Main Events
All listed times are Eastern. 🚨= Elimination game
Soccer:
⚽ World Cup: Spain (87%) vs. Austria (13%) - 3 p.m. (FOX/Tele/Peacock) 🚨
⚽ World Cup: Portugal (70%) vs. Croatia (30%) - 7 p.m. (FOX/Tele/Peacock) 🚨
⚽ World Cup: Switzerland (66%) vs. Algeria (34%) - 11 p.m. (FOX/Tele/Peacock) 🚨
⚽ World Cup odds: France 37% to win
MLB:
⚾ Pirates (45%) at Phillies (55%) - 12:35 p.m. (MLB.tv)
⚾ Cardinals (48%) at Braves (52%) - 7:15 p.m. (MLB.tv)
⚾ Padres (35%) at Dodgers (65%) - 10:10 p.m. (MLB.tv)
⚾ Championship check-in: Dodgers 34% to win World Series
WNBA:
🏀 Mystics (27%) vs. Dream (73%) - 7:30 p.m. (WNBA League Pass)
🏀 Sun (25%) vs. Wings (75%) - 8 p.m. (WNBA League Pass)
🏀 Mercury (61%) at Storm (39%) - 10 p.m. (WNBA League Pass)
🏀 Championship check-in: Lynx 32% to win WNBA title
NBA:
🏀 LeBron James’ next team - Cavaliers favored at 40%
Tennis:
🎾 Wimbledon, Round 2 (ESPN/ESPN+) - Jannik Sinner 60% (men’s) and Aryna Sabalenka 27% (women’s) to win
🎾 Matteo Berrettini (36%) vs. Arthur Fils (64%) - 10 a.m. (ESPN/ESPN+) 🚨
Golf:
⛳ John Deere Classic, Round 1 (Golf Channel) - Ben Griffin 5% to win
🔍 FIND THE EDGE
We’re so back
This time last year, it seemed like crazy NBA offseasons were a thing of the past. The strict financial and roster-building penalties of the league’s latest Collective Bargaining Agreement led to a historically low amount of star talent changing teams during the summer of 2025. But a year later, the NBA is back to the drunken messiness we used to know and love — with teams trading ALL of their first-round picks for big names like Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kawhi Leonard and LaMelo Ball, LeBron James publicly breaking up with the Lakers (despite his own son just having signed a guaranteed deal with them), and the Celtics dealing All-NBA forward Jaylen Brown to the division-rival Sixers for Paul George and a bunch of picks.
Maybe it’s because teams saw the Knicks win a rule-breaking title from out of nowhere and wonder, “why not us?”; maybe it’s just panic over the looming prospect of dynasties in Oklahoma City or San Antonio driving teams to act with the desperation of someone scanning the room at last call.
The Brown trade is particularly mind-boggling. Boston had tried to trade him (plus 2 — two! — unprotected first-round picks) to the Bucks for Antetokounmpo a few weeks earlier, but Milwaukee instead chose to trade Giannis to Miami. Then came a weird leak to ESPN’s Bobby Marks that an unnamed analytics staffer thought Brown was “the seventh-best player on a team” — which doesn’t even make sense according to my LAKER analytics rankings — and finally, on Wednesday, a deal for the past-prime George that sets back the theoretically win-now Celtics and gives a major boost to the odds for Philadelphia, if the prediction market odds are any indication:
Yes, that’s right — the Celtics sliced their own title odds from 8% to 6% while boosting Philly’s from 1% to 6%, all by their own choice.
After all that, one of the last remaining major dominoes to fall will be where James goes — and even that is a blast back to the past of 2010, when LeBron infamously courted suitors and co-hosted a TV special in a room full of children, called “The Decision”, to announce where he was taking his talents. (Yes, that is a thing that actually happened.)
This time around, James is a bit more subdued — he’s 41 years old now, after all — but he was still among the better players in the league last season, with a LAKER rating of +2.9 and 6.0 Wins Above Replacement. Teams know he wants to win one more title for the purposes of his Jordan-chasing legacy, and they also know he can help them do that. Hence, teams like the Warriors made a series of moves to potentially land James (and maybe even another star) for one last push, though the market now thinks James’ original team — the Cavaliers, who were swept in the East Final last year — should be the favorite to get him back.
Wherever he goes, LeBron will be the latest huge name to move in an NBA summer that has been a hot mess, to say the least.
📊 CHART OF THE DAY
Drag race
The home runs are flying fast and furious across baseball right now, with the Chicago Cubs hitting EIGHT of them on Wednesday and 20-year-old Junior Caminero of the Rays going deep for a sixth consecutive game — part of a run with nine home runs in his past eight games. Everyone digs the long ball, so we’re not complaining. But as is often the case with MLB, there are complications. A few years back, it was found that elevated leaguewide HR rates were likely due to the ball itself being “juiced”, something that abruptly reversed in subsequent years. Fast-forward to now, and the ball is becoming the main character again — as a sudden, drastic drop in aerodynamic drag over the last month (which can actually be benchmarked using tracking data) has sent homer rates skyrocketing once more, bringing us back to the same old question: Are the hitters really this hot, or is the baseball itself doing some of the work?
❄️ STAY FROSTY
What else we’re reading
Smart, short reads we liked while building today’s odds.
⚽ “Kane, Messi, Mbappe and other stars are dominating this World Cup. That is not normal.” by Oliver Kay
⚽ “The World Cup Is Better Than the Olympics - Especially now that the US doesn’t suck” by Jeff Maurer
🏈 “”BABY BROCK” The Highest Paid TE (Probably) in CFB History” by VolumePigs
⚽ “Freddy Adieu: The Mystery of FreddyLA7 and Why He Was Driven Off X” by Ethan Strauss
🏈 “What is a quarterback competition really like?” by Matthew Coller
⚽ “Why FIFA Want More Teams at the World Cup” by David Skilling
👀 EYES UP
Next on deck…
Friday (7/3)
⚽ World Cup: Australia vs. Egypt / Argentina vs. Cape Verde / Colombia vs. Ghana 🚨
⚾ MLB: Padres at Dodgers
🏀 WNBA: Lynx at Liberty
🎾 Tennis: Wimbledon, Round 3
⛳ Golf: John Deere Classic
Saturday (7/4) - Happy Independence Day to our American readers! 🗽
⚽ World Cup: Canada vs. Morocco / Paraguay vs. France 🚨
⚾ MLB: Cardinals at Cubs
🏀 WNBA: Valkyries at Dream
🎾 Tennis: Wimbledon, Round 3
⛳ Golf: John Deere Classic
Sunday (7/5)
⚽ World Cup: Brazil vs. Norway / Mexico vs. England 🚨
⚾ MLB: Padres at Dodgers
🏀 WNBA: Fever at Aces
🎾 Tennis: Wimbledon, Round 4
⛳ Golf: John Deere Classic 🚨
🏁 F1: Pirelli British GP (Silverstone Circuit)
🏁 NASCAR: eero 400 (Chicagoland Speedway)
🏁 IndyCar: Honda Indy 200 (Mid-Ohio Sports Car Course)
🧠 Looking ahead
Stay tuned for more updates and in-depth analysis of these events and more as they unfold. We’ll be bringing you all the scores, highlights, and expert commentary.
Got a favorite team or sport you want us to cover more? Let us know!
All data current as of time of send.
— by Neil Paine
*Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.