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Happy Monday! We said on Friday that both the NBA and NHL seasons could come to their conclusions over the weekend — and as the nightcaps to a sports-packed Saturday and Sunday, that’s exactly what happened. We’ll have more on the champion New York Knicks and Carolina Hurricanes below, but suffice it to say that their victories highlighted one of the most memorable sports weekends in a long time, one also filled with World Cup soccer, College World Series baseball, big WNBA matchups, NASCAR and F1 action — the great Lewis Hamilton won his first race for Ferrari! — and even UFC fights on the front lawn of the White House. (A little something for everyone.) Today won’t match all of that, but here’s what’s on the Monday slate:
🗓️ TONIGHT’S DANCE
The Main Events
All listed times are Eastern. 🚨= Elimination game
Soccer:
⚽ World Cup: Spain (93%) vs. Cape Verde (3%) - 12 p.m. (FOX/Tele/Peacock)
⚽ World Cup: Belgium (63%) vs. Egypt (16%) - 3 p.m. (FOX/Tele/Peacock)
⚽ World Cup: Saudi Arabia (12%) vs. Uruguay (69%) - 6 p.m. (FOX/Tele/Peacock)
⚽ World Cup: Iran (55%) vs. New Zealand (20%) - 9 p.m. (FOX/Tele/Peacock)
⚽ World Cup odds: France 22% to win
MLB:
⚾ Marlins (34%) at Phillies (66%) - 6:40 p.m. (MLB.tv)
⚾ Twins (39%) at Rangers (61%) - 8:05 p.m. (MLB.tv)
⚾ Rays (40%) at Dodgers (60%) - 10:10 p.m. (MLB.tv)
⚾ Championship check-in: Dodgers 29% to win World Series
NCAA:
⚾ College World Series: Alabama (29%) vs. Texas (71%) - 2 p.m. (ESPN) 🚨
⚾ College World Series: Oklahoma (34%) vs. Georgia (66%) - 7 p.m. (ESPN)
⚾ Championship check-in: UNC 43% to win CWS
WNBA:
🏀 Aces (58%) at Wings (42%) - 8 p.m. (USA Network)
🏀 Portland (11%) at Lynx (89%) - 8 p.m.
🏀 Sparks (35%) at Valkyries (65%) - 10 p.m. (Peacock)
🏀 Championship check-in: Lynx 26% to win WNBA title
🔍 FIND THE EDGE
A tale of two (surprisingly similar) champs
Yes, in a flash, the NBA and NHL seasons are both complete — as strange as that feels for us junkies who’ve been obsessively tracking both sports in parallel nearly every day since last October.
On Saturday night, the New York Knicks came back (yes, again) to defeat the San Antonio Spurs and claim their first NBA title since 1973, ending the fifth-longest championship drought in league history and bringing a trophy back to the city known as the Mecca of Basketball.
The Knicks’ rise defied the odds, even by the standards of an unprecedented era that has now seen eight different NBA champs in as many years. Going into the season, the Knicks had won 23 total playoff games over the previous three years without a finals berth, the type of ceiling-capped run that almost never portends a championship breakthrough. In the prediction markets, traders never set New York’s title odds at double digits between October 28 and May 5, only grudgingly boosting their chances as the Knicks kept winning (and winning, and winning) until lo and behold, they were at 100%.
For their part over in the NHL, Carolina didn’t take traders by quite so much surprise — the Hurricanes were a solid contender throughout the year. But just like the Knicks, they had been banging up against a ceiling for years without a breakthrough to show for it. Among teams that won the Stanley Cup without making a finals bid in the preceding seven years, the Canes had by far the most playoff wins (44) over that span in NHL history, underscoring just how close they’d come without ever reaching the promised land:
And like the Knicks, with their small-guard-led roster of good players (but not superstars), Carolina had to answer a lot of critics who doubted a team like them could ever win the big one.
The Hurricanes play a unique style that uses aggressive forechecking to force opponents into mistakes, and they routinely dominate puck possession practically every season. As they were coming up short year after year, skeptics wondered if that approach worked against average opponents in the regular season, but was destined to come up short in the playoffs. A Stanley Cup will do wonders to silence those concerns.
The similarities even extend as we look ahead to next season. Despite just winning the title, neither New York nor Carolina is the favorite to defend their crown. Far from it, in fact — each has about half the odds of the favorites (the Thunder and Avalanche, respectively), with the Knicks ranking third and the Canes ranking sixth in the initial pecking order.
Then again, both teams spent years thriving on doubt, so why should next season be any different?
📊 CHART OF THE DAY
Early movers
The World Cup is still just a few days old, but that doesn’t mean we didn’t get some results over the weekend to meaningfully move the numbers in my Polymarket odds tracker. Here’s a table of the biggest gainers (🚀) and losers (⚓) in the odds since the tournament began, plus a few dark horse (🐴) teams with perhaps surprisingly strong odds to make the round of 16:
❄️ STAY FROSTY
What else we’re reading
Smart, short reads we liked while building today’s odds.
🏀 “Where does OG Anunoby’s tip in rank in the pantheon of NBA big shots?” by Michael Beuoy
🏀 “Knicks Consistently A Little Bit Better than the Spurs: Stats Confirm What Most Observers Already Understood” by Jeff Fogle
⚾ “The Other DiMaggio Streak” by Pages From Baseball’s Past
⚾ “Laz Diaz is an Above-Average Home Plate Umpire All of a Sudden” by Jeff Asher
🏀 “Like All Good Things, Sports Are Owned by the Rich Now” by Freddie deBoer
👀 EYES UP
Next on deck…
Tuesday (6/16)
⚽ World Cup: France vs. Senegal / Iraq vs. Norway / Argentina vs. Algeria / Austria vs. Jordan
⚾ MLB: Rays at Dodgers
⚾ NCAA: College World Series, West Virginia vs. Troy
🏀 WNBA: Tempo at Fever
Wednesday (6/17)
⚽ World Cup: Portugal vs. DR Congo / England vs. Croatia / Ghana vs. Panama / Uzbekistan vs. Colombia
⚾ MLB: Rays at Dodgers
⚾ NCAA: College World Series
🏀 WNBA: Wings at Valkyries
Thursday (6/18)
⚽ World Cup: Czech Republic vs. South Africa / Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina / Canada vs. Qatar / Mexico vs. South Korea
⚾ MLB: Mets at Phillies
⚾ NCAA: College World Series
🏀 WNBA: Dream at Fever
⛳ Golf: US Open, Round 1
🧠 Looking ahead
Stay tuned for more updates and in-depth analysis of these events and more as they unfold. We’ll be bringing you all the scores, highlights, and expert commentary.
Got a favorite team or sport you want us to cover more? Let us know!
All data current as of time of send.
— by Neil Paine
*Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.