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Welcome to Wednesday, and another day filled with intrigue on the sports schedule. Just when we thought the World Cup would belong to the underdogs — if not through outright wins, then simply through a flurry of shocking draws — yesterday saw the favorites (especially the two teams who played for the title last time around) re-assert themselves in a big way. This sets us up to wonder which direction the tournament will keep going from here, as we’ll dive into more below. Meanwhile, the College World Series is down to a Final Four, so we’ll break down the odds in our Chart of the Day, and we’re looking forward to the rest of these games on the busy midweek slate:
🗓️ TONIGHT’S DANCE
The Main Events
All listed times are Eastern. 🚨= Elimination game
Soccer:
⚽ World Cup: Portugal (78%) vs. DR Congo (8%) - 1 p.m. (FOX/Tele/Peacock)
⚽ World Cup: England (58%) vs. Croatia (17%) - 4 p.m. (FOX/Tele/Peacock)
⚽ World Cup: Ghana (42%) vs. Panama (30%) - 7 p.m. (FOX/Tele/Peacock)
⚽ World Cup: Uzbekistan (11%) vs. Colombia (72%) - 10 p.m. (FOX/Tele/Peacock)
⚽ World Cup odds: France 21% to win
MLB:
⚾ Rays (37%) at Dodgers (63%) - 3:10 p.m. (MLB.tv)
⚾ White Sox (37%) at Yankees (63%) - 7:05 p.m. (MLB.tv)
⚾ Orioles (43%) at Mariners (57%) - 9:40 p.m. (MLB.tv)
⚾ Championship check-in: Dodgers 29% to win World Series
NCAA:
⚾ College World Series: North Carolina (60%) vs. West Virginia (40%) - 2 p.m. (ESPN) 🚨
⚾ College World Series: Oklahoma (35%) vs. Georgia (65%) - 7 p.m. (ESPN) 🚨
⚾ Championship check-in: UNC 40% to win CWS
WNBA:
🏀 Liberty (82%) at Sky (18%) - 8 p.m. (WNBA League Pass)
🏀 Wings (44%) at Valkyries (56%) - 10 p.m. (WNBA League Pass)
🏀 Mercury (27%) at Aces (73%) - 10 p.m. (WNBA League Pass)
🏀 Championship check-in: Lynx 27% to win WNBA title
🔍 FIND THE EDGE
Will the cream keep rising?
After Monday’s “day of the draws” — just the second time in World Cup history that four ties happened the same day — Tuesday brought the tournament into greater focus.
The pregame favorites (France, Argentina, Norway, Austria) all won and won big, at least by soccer standards — every margin was by at least 2 goals — and some of the faces of the tournament had huge days as well. Kylian Mbappé of France scored twice (us soccer aficionados call that a “brace”), as did Norway’s Erling Haaland (a Scoreboard favorite going way back). And Lionel Messi, arguably the greatest footballer ever, one-upped them with a hat trick, netting each of Argentina’s 3 goals vs. Algeria.
The result was to deliver big boosts to the odds for those winners — especially the two defending World Cup Finalists, Argentina and France. In my Polymarket odds tracker, France’s odds to win Group I went up by 12 percentage points while Argentina’s odds in Group J went up 12 points, part of a trend that saw both teams make huge gains across the board. Norway was less lucky in that regard, as France’s dominance dropped their group odds, but traders think they are more formidable for the knockouts than they seemed just a day ago.
This stood in sharp contrast with Monday’s odds shifts, which mostly moved against the favorites — most notably Spain and Belgium — to go with a host of surprising results from earlier in the tournament. That means we suddenly stand at a tournament-defining crossroads: Was Monday the start of a true underdog uprising, or was Tuesday the moment the giants started restoring order?
We’ll get more chances to test that question later today. Portugal and England, two more of the Top 5 teams in the overall title odds, are in action as favorites — admittedly, England has the tougher matchup in the form of the perennially dangerous Croatian side, which has finished on the podium for two straight World Cups — and we will learn whether their odds go the way of France and Argentina (i.e., upward) or Spain and Belgium (downward) soon enough.
📊 CHART OF THE DAY
You only lose twice
College baseball’s NCAA tournament is upon us, and we’re down to a “Final Four” of North Carolina, Oklahoma, Georgia and West Virginia, with elimination games tonight. Now, this isn’t like our beloved single-elimination March Madness bracket — lowkey one of the reasons I think the College World Series hasn’t caught on as much as basketball’s tourney — but instead it’s double-elimination between the undefeated CWS teams (UNC, OU) and the 1-loss teams (WVU, UGA). The Mountaineers and Bulldogs must, respectively, beat the Tar Heels and Sooners twice — before losing once — to make the best-of-3 championship. But for what it’s worth, 1-loss UGA is favored to deal Oklahoma a loss tonight, which would set up a winner-take-all game tomorrow for the right to advance.
❄️ STAY FROSTY
What else we’re reading
Smart, short reads we liked while building today’s odds.
⚽ “World Cup player Elye Wahi arrested for alleged fixing offences on eve of tournament” by Jacob Whitehead
🏀 “The pressure of a ‘can’t miss’ draft board” by Tom Ziller
⚾ “So, the Cardinals are contenders. Now what?” by Will Leitch
⚾ “The End Comes Sooner Than Later” by David Harris
⚾ “When 60+ WAR Doesn’t Feel Like Cooperstown” by Mark Kolier
🏒 “Mikko Rantanen’s Wild Ride of a 2025-26 Season” by Robert Tiffin
👀 EYES UP
Next on deck…
Thursday (6/18)
⚽ World Cup: Czech Republic vs. South Africa / Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina / Canada vs. Qatar / Mexico vs. South Korea
⚾ MLB: Mets at Phillies
⚾ NCAA: College World Series, semifinals Game 2 (if necessary)
🏀 WNBA: Dream at Fever
⛳ Golf: US Open, Round 1 (Shinnecock Hills Golf Club - Southampton, NY)
Friday (6/19)
⚽ World Cup: US vs. Australia / Scotland vs. Morocco / Brazil vs. Haiti / Türkiye vs. Paraguay
⚾ MLB: Brewers at Braves
⚾ NCAA: College World Series, no games (off day)
🏀 WNBA: Lynx at Valkyries
⛳ Golf: US Open, Round 2
Saturday (6/20)
⚽ World Cup: Netherlands vs. Sweden / Germany vs. Ivory Coast / Ecuador vs. Curaçao / Tunisia vs. Japan
⚾ MLB: Brewers at Braves
⚾ NCAA: College World Series: Championship Series Game 1
🏀 WNBA: Fever at Dream
⛳ Golf: US Open, Round 3
🥊 Boxing: Oscar Collazo vs. Joey Canoy (WBA and WBO strawweight titles)
🥊 UFC Fight Night: Manel Kape vs. Kyoji Horiguchi (Las Vegas, NV)
🧠 Looking ahead
Stay tuned for more updates and in-depth analysis of these events and more as they unfold. We’ll be bringing you all the scores, highlights, and expert commentary.
Got a favorite team or sport you want us to cover more? Let us know!
All data current as of time of send.
— by Neil Paine
*Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.