Great read. One stat that I follow, particularly during the postseason is Usage Percentage ("USG%). My theory is that up to a certain percentage, increasing a star player's usage yields more wins. At some point, however, it flattens to no benefit and then declines as the percentage increases (the law of diminishing marginal return).
I don't know for certain what that inflection point is, but I've used LeBron as a benchmark since he is clearly one of the top 5 players ever (take your positional pick). LeBron's USG% has been remarkably consistent throughout his career - 31.5% regular season, 31.7 postseason.
In all his years of playing it's never been at or above 34% in the regular season, and only four years in the postseason. It hovers around 32% with remarkable precision. This, despite no coach or player having the courage to tell LeBron not to take a higher percentage of the offense. He seems to sense that over-usage hurts winning - even for him across multiple teams, coaches, rosters and early criticism that he avoided the clutch last shot in big games.
Put another way, if LeBron isn't increasing his USG% above 32% his entire career...why is anybody else? So, 32% feels optimal to me for a star player, while 34 or more is a danger zone.
This year is interesting. Jalen Brunson's USG% was a healthy 32.5% this season, but an alarming 36.7 in the postseason. Even when the Knicks were rolling, his numbers were a cause for concern for me. Doncic has gone the other way - as have the Mavs. His prior two postseason USG% were both 40.4%, both disappointing exits. This year? 31.3% and the Mavs are moving on.
Now, there are many valid reasons your USG% might be elevated for a short period. Injuries are one. However, once a single player gets above 34%, the team is at risk of suffering offensively and the head coach needs to assess what's best given the circumstances. Regarding Brunson, what portions of the Pacer games I saw, he tended to handle the ball too much (over dribble) and take several ill-advised shots at the end. His teammates seemed to stop moving and watch him as he was handling the ball, slowing down the offense and eliminating options.
Others might disagree, but I think part of the maturation process when you get to a star level is to follow LeBron's lead and realize that often, less is more.
I think that's right. And having to take on less usage is a privilege as your teammates become better, which is beneficial for a star because he gets more support to draw defensive attention away from him, leading to easier shots for everyone.
Great read. One stat that I follow, particularly during the postseason is Usage Percentage ("USG%). My theory is that up to a certain percentage, increasing a star player's usage yields more wins. At some point, however, it flattens to no benefit and then declines as the percentage increases (the law of diminishing marginal return).
I don't know for certain what that inflection point is, but I've used LeBron as a benchmark since he is clearly one of the top 5 players ever (take your positional pick). LeBron's USG% has been remarkably consistent throughout his career - 31.5% regular season, 31.7 postseason.
In all his years of playing it's never been at or above 34% in the regular season, and only four years in the postseason. It hovers around 32% with remarkable precision. This, despite no coach or player having the courage to tell LeBron not to take a higher percentage of the offense. He seems to sense that over-usage hurts winning - even for him across multiple teams, coaches, rosters and early criticism that he avoided the clutch last shot in big games.
Put another way, if LeBron isn't increasing his USG% above 32% his entire career...why is anybody else? So, 32% feels optimal to me for a star player, while 34 or more is a danger zone.
This year is interesting. Jalen Brunson's USG% was a healthy 32.5% this season, but an alarming 36.7 in the postseason. Even when the Knicks were rolling, his numbers were a cause for concern for me. Doncic has gone the other way - as have the Mavs. His prior two postseason USG% were both 40.4%, both disappointing exits. This year? 31.3% and the Mavs are moving on.
Now, there are many valid reasons your USG% might be elevated for a short period. Injuries are one. However, once a single player gets above 34%, the team is at risk of suffering offensively and the head coach needs to assess what's best given the circumstances. Regarding Brunson, what portions of the Pacer games I saw, he tended to handle the ball too much (over dribble) and take several ill-advised shots at the end. His teammates seemed to stop moving and watch him as he was handling the ball, slowing down the offense and eliminating options.
Others might disagree, but I think part of the maturation process when you get to a star level is to follow LeBron's lead and realize that often, less is more.
I think that's right. And having to take on less usage is a privilege as your teammates become better, which is beneficial for a star because he gets more support to draw defensive attention away from him, leading to easier shots for everyone.