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Welcome to Wednesday, where the World Cup has reached its third time through the order. And just like a pitcher facing the lineup again, this whole thing is about to get a lot harder to manage — as group-stage finales begin today, the tournament now shifts from abstract stakes into full-on scenario-tracking and scoreboard-watching mode. We’ll map out the biggest remaining matchups below, then check in on one of MLB’s strangest hot streaks — and all of that is happening against a sports slate that sees the conclusion of the NBA draft and a busy WNBA night as well:
🗓️ TONIGHT’S DANCE
The Main Events
All listed times are Eastern. 🚨= Elimination game
Soccer:
⚽ World Cup: Switzerland (42%) vs. Canada (30%) - 3 p.m. (FOX/Tele/Peacock)
⚽ World Cup: Bosnia and Herzegovina (72%) vs. Qatar (12%) - 3 p.m. (FS1/Tele/Peacock) 🚨
⚽ World Cup: Morocco (84%) vs. Haiti (5%) - 6 p.m. (FS1/Tele/Peacock)
⚽ World Cup: Scotland (10%) vs. Brazil (77%) - 6 p.m. (FOX/Tele/Peacock)
⚽ World Cup: South Africa (16%) vs. South Korea (62%) - 9 p.m. (FS1/Tele/Peacock) 🚨
⚽ World Cup: Czechia (26%) vs. Mexico (53%) - 9 p.m. (FOX/Tele/Peacock) 🚨
⚽ World Cup odds: France 25% to win
MLB:
⚾ Orioles (47%) at Angels (53%) - 4:07 p.m. (MLB.tv)
⚾ Phillies (55%) at Nationals (45%) - 6:45 p.m. (MLB.tv)
⚾ Dodgers (62%) at Twins (38%) - 7:40 p.m. (MLB.tv)
⚾ Championship check-in: Dodgers 30% to win World Series
WNBA:
🏀 Mercury (23%) at Fever (77%) - 7:30 p.m. (ESPN)
🏀 Lynx (79%) at Mystics (21%) - 7:30 p.m. (WNBA League Pass)
🏀 Dream (57%) at Valkyries (43%) - 10 p.m. (WNBA League Pass)
🏀 Championship check-in: Lynx 29% to win WNBA title
NBA:
🏀 2026 NBA Draft, Round 2 - 8 p.m. (ESPN)
🔍 FIND THE EDGE
Third time through the order
World Cup teams officially start their third matches of the group stage today, which means every group has just two games left in it between now and the end of group play on Saturday. As we noted a few days ago, many teams’ advancement fates are either effectively certain or relatively close to it, though a number of scenarios still remain to make those clinching conditions get met.
Let’s run through each remaining day, picking out the matches to watch that will have the biggest effect on the odds…
Wednesday, 6/24: Switzerland vs. Canada (Group B) doesn’t have advancement stakes, but it will likely determine who wins the group — and thus who gets an easier knockout path, both bracket- and travel-wise. The rest of the matches feature teams either above 70% or below 25% to advance, the most in-limbo of which are Bosnia-Herzegovina (70%, trying to eliminate Qatar); Scotland (75%, looking to take a draw — or at least a close result — off of Brazil to secure third place in Group C); and Czechia (25%), who’s desperate for a win vs. Mexico to claw back into a third-place berth or somehow catch South Korea for second in Group A.
Thursday, 6/25: Ecuador vs. Germany and Curaçao vs. Ivory Coast are a couple of Group E matches with advancement odds on the line — both Ecuador and Curaçao sit below 30% in the knockout chances, but are still alive and looking for some kind of path forward despite the long odds. Both teams in Paraguay vs. Australia (Group D) will likely get through, but this fight will determine second place. And keep an eye on Japan vs. Sweden in Group F — while both teams are almost certain to advance, Japan has a 20% chance to steal the group away from the Netherlands depending on what the Dutch do vs. Tunisia.
Friday, 6/26: Circle this day on the schedule, because it will be the most hectic left in the group stage. In Group H, Cinderella Cape Verde faces Saudi Arabia to try and lock up a spot in the Round of 32 with a win (or a draw if Spain beats Uruguay). Spain is going for the group win in that one, but Uruguay has a fighting 37% chance to make the knockouts, which happens if they win (or if they draw and Cape Verde doesn’t win). Also pay attention to Senegal vs. Iraq (Group I) and Egypt vs. Iran (Group G); Egypt is in good shape to advance but still has stakes for the group win (63%), while Senegal and Iran both sit with advancement odds in the 60s and need wins.
Saturday, 6/27: The single most toss-up team in the knockout odds is DR Congo at 55%, making their final Group K match vs. Uzbekistan a tense one — the Congolese need a win and help in order to advance out of third place. In the same group, Colombia vs. Portugal is essentially a fight for the group win. And elsewhere, watch Algeria vs. Austria (Group J) and Croatia vs. Ghana (Group L): in the former, second-place is on the line, while the latter will meet with similar stakes and the possibility to steal the group away from England, who, granted, is a major favorite vs. Panama.
It’s a lot to take in — but with four days of scoreboard-watching ahead, we can’t wait to see how the whole mess resolves itself.
📊 CHART OF THE DAY
Swimming with the big fish
This has been an odd baseball season so far, with its mix of expected favorites, reborn contenders and total upstarts populating the top of the standings. Among the latter, none might be more surprising than the Miami Marlins — a franchise that has made the playoffs twice in the past 23 years and is working on only its third winning season since the dawn of the 2010s. And yet, scan the list of teams who’ve been winning the most recently — whether over their past 20 or even 30 games — and the Marlins are swimming at or near the top of the lists around more established teams like the Dodgers, Brewers, Phillies and Yankees.
❄️ STAY FROSTY
What else we’re reading
Smart, short reads we liked while building today’s odds.
🏀 “The Greek Freakout is over. Time for the Boston Brownout” by Tom Ziller
⚽ “Soccer Had One Thing American Sports Didn’t. FIFA Just Took It Away.” by Michael Weinreb
🎓 “A Quiet Admission” by Noah Henderson
🏈 “The complicated coverage of the Brendan Sorsby story” by Brian Moritz
🏒 “The 2026 NHL Draft Ranking Aggregate” by NHL Draft Lab
👀 EYES UP
Next on deck…
Thursday (6/25)
⚽ World Cup: Turkey vs. USA / Tunisia vs. Netherlands / Japan vs. Sweden / Paraguay vs. Australia / Curaçao vs. Ivory Coast / Ecuador vs. Germany 🚨
⚾ MLB: Phillies at Nationals
🏀 WNBA: Liberty at Storm
⛳ Golf: Travelers Championship (TPC River Highlands - Cromwell, CT)
🎾 Tennis: Wimbledon qualifiers (main draw begins 6/29)
Friday (6/26)
⚽ World Cup: Norway vs. France / Cape Verde vs. Saudi Arabia / New Zealand vs. Belgium / Egypt vs. Iran / Uruguay vs. Spain / Senegal vs. Iraq 🚨
⚾ MLB: Yankees at Red Sox
🏀 WNBA: Dream at Valkyries
⛳ Golf: Travelers Championship
🎾 Tennis: Wimbledon qualifiers
Saturday (6/27)
⚽ World Cup: Panama vs. England / Croatia vs. Ghana / Colombia vs. Portugal / Algeria vs. Austria / Jordan vs. Argentina / DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan 🚨
⚾ MLB: Dodgers at Padres
🏀 WNBA: Sparks at Fever
🥊 Boxing: Xander Zayas vs. Jaron “Boots” Ennis (WBA and WBO junior middleweight titles)
🥊 UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres
⛳ Golf: Travelers Championship
🎾 Tennis: Wimbledon qualifiers
🧠 Looking ahead
Stay tuned for more updates and in-depth analysis of these events and more as they unfold. We’ll be bringing you all the scores, highlights, and expert commentary.
Got a favorite team or sport you want us to cover more? Let us know!
All data current as of time of send.
— by Neil Paine
*Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.