In a huge statement, Steve Cohen's Mets signed Soto away from the Yankees for a record-setting contract. But MLB's money game has changed since the heyday of the Steinbrenner Yankees, too.
First, a tremendous and insightful piece. The ending and your conclusion here are much needed clear thinking and analysis during this time of Soto hysteria where the mainstream sports media treats this rather predictable signing as the sports equivalent of an atomic bomb test in some adversary's desert.
With that in mind, four personal takes on the Soto signing:
1. Scott Boras is overrated by the media. They present him as some sort of magical money tree agronomist. Boras gets big deals because he has had big deals in the past. He's like a personal injury law firm that you see in advertisements. Are they the best PI lawyers around? Certainly not - there are plenty of better lawyers at other firms, but what they have is a brand and a pipeline that through self-selection drives the best plaintiffs and biggest cases to them because they are well known.
With a ready pipeline of large, self-selected cases, they sell their recent cases to the public to drive more future business. Juan Soto didn't sign with Boras because he did a deep dive on his negotiating acumen or strategies. He signed because he saw his other clients and their deals.
So, what did get him to $700MM plus? The good old free market. The free market is an exogenous condition existing because of competition that doesn't require agents. Agents are routinely presented to the public as essential larger than life fictionalized characters because there exists an incestuous relationship between the press and agents. The agents give the media “scoops” while the media promises to provide fawning portrayals of them and their clients. Like when it was "leaked" that the Soto bidding had exceeded $700MM - for obvious reasons.
Recall when Lamar Jackson and his mom negotiated his extension with the Ravens. The press called it "malpractice"... that is, until he signed an outstanding deal by himself without the agent's commission.
Baseball teams didn't need Scott Boras to "sell" them on Soto or provide a book of information on him. They knew his value both in relative and situational terms down to the penny. It's not like buying a used car where you walk on the lot and might need the salesperson to help you figure out its features, flood and accident history, and warranty. Juan Soto has been thoroughly analyzed by front offices. Boras just ran the auction by taking calls and collecting his fee - nothing more. Now that Soto is signed, Boras is surely to get more elite talent and more big deals as everyone quickly forgets about Jordan Montgomery.
2. Juan Soto for 15 years is high risk. You wouldn't know that from listening to the media about what a sure thing he is. Most of that invariably hinges on his age - he's just 26 goes the refrain. But here's the weird problem with Soto that isn’t being talked about. His speed numbers - base running, outfield range etc. - have dropped since 2021. Why is that so for a guy in his prime at ages 24-25? That shouldn't be happening. In fact, reports have the Mets already planning on using him as a DH soon. At only age 26.
So, what is it? I don't know for sure, so I will leave that to the theorists out there - but it's a red flag for me. I would not be surprised if in 4-5 years people are drawing career parallels to Albert Pujols. Soto isn’t a sure thing in my book beyond 4 years or so.
3. The Yankees aren't dead. I'm not sold that having Soto on the aging Yankees roster mattered a whole lot beyond ego. In fact, the opportunity cost of spending $700MM plus on him for an eternity seems super high. Now, Cashman can spend his already approved money on several younger impactful assets instead and reopen their window more efficiently and perhaps even exceed Soto's individual WAR.
Soto isn't Aaron Judge, let's be clear. We saw what happened to the Yankees when Judge struggled, and Soto didn't - the Yankees weren't competitive. Judge is the straw that stirs the drink in NY - not Soto.
4. The whole park effects narrative is just lazy media analysis. We know, Soto is a spray hitter with good power - averaging a solid 35 HRs per game - but even his 41 HRs last year don’t reflect exceptional power. He's been the same since I watched him play virtually every game in Washington. So, moving to Citi Field won't hurt that much...yeah, we get it.
But here's what will hurt. He won't have Judge and Stanton around him in the lineup. Alonso might bolt and Lindor is over 30 and isn't enough to protect him. So, it's entirely possible he could revert to San Diego version Soto when Tatis, Jr. wasn't around, and the fans regularly booed him.
In San Diego, pitchers pitched him off the plate and he took a lot of walks that some argued were too many for a guy brought in to drive in runs. Yes, he had a .930 OPS, but it didn't matter - he didn't meet expectations when they traded for him.
His barrel % in NY jumped and he walked less last year compared to San Diego and his career average. That feels like possibly the lineup around him and him seeing better pitches. We'll see.
Very quick question - no rush. It looks like the Yankees have signed Max Fried and are targeting Kyle Tucker next. Am I correct that If they get Tucker, they will have already exceeded Soto's WAR for last season? This, with still more money left in the tank - perhaps $200MM for a major third FA? Wow. Thanks again.
First, a tremendous and insightful piece. The ending and your conclusion here are much needed clear thinking and analysis during this time of Soto hysteria where the mainstream sports media treats this rather predictable signing as the sports equivalent of an atomic bomb test in some adversary's desert.
With that in mind, four personal takes on the Soto signing:
1. Scott Boras is overrated by the media. They present him as some sort of magical money tree agronomist. Boras gets big deals because he has had big deals in the past. He's like a personal injury law firm that you see in advertisements. Are they the best PI lawyers around? Certainly not - there are plenty of better lawyers at other firms, but what they have is a brand and a pipeline that through self-selection drives the best plaintiffs and biggest cases to them because they are well known.
With a ready pipeline of large, self-selected cases, they sell their recent cases to the public to drive more future business. Juan Soto didn't sign with Boras because he did a deep dive on his negotiating acumen or strategies. He signed because he saw his other clients and their deals.
So, what did get him to $700MM plus? The good old free market. The free market is an exogenous condition existing because of competition that doesn't require agents. Agents are routinely presented to the public as essential larger than life fictionalized characters because there exists an incestuous relationship between the press and agents. The agents give the media “scoops” while the media promises to provide fawning portrayals of them and their clients. Like when it was "leaked" that the Soto bidding had exceeded $700MM - for obvious reasons.
Recall when Lamar Jackson and his mom negotiated his extension with the Ravens. The press called it "malpractice"... that is, until he signed an outstanding deal by himself without the agent's commission.
Baseball teams didn't need Scott Boras to "sell" them on Soto or provide a book of information on him. They knew his value both in relative and situational terms down to the penny. It's not like buying a used car where you walk on the lot and might need the salesperson to help you figure out its features, flood and accident history, and warranty. Juan Soto has been thoroughly analyzed by front offices. Boras just ran the auction by taking calls and collecting his fee - nothing more. Now that Soto is signed, Boras is surely to get more elite talent and more big deals as everyone quickly forgets about Jordan Montgomery.
2. Juan Soto for 15 years is high risk. You wouldn't know that from listening to the media about what a sure thing he is. Most of that invariably hinges on his age - he's just 26 goes the refrain. But here's the weird problem with Soto that isn’t being talked about. His speed numbers - base running, outfield range etc. - have dropped since 2021. Why is that so for a guy in his prime at ages 24-25? That shouldn't be happening. In fact, reports have the Mets already planning on using him as a DH soon. At only age 26.
So, what is it? I don't know for sure, so I will leave that to the theorists out there - but it's a red flag for me. I would not be surprised if in 4-5 years people are drawing career parallels to Albert Pujols. Soto isn’t a sure thing in my book beyond 4 years or so.
3. The Yankees aren't dead. I'm not sold that having Soto on the aging Yankees roster mattered a whole lot beyond ego. In fact, the opportunity cost of spending $700MM plus on him for an eternity seems super high. Now, Cashman can spend his already approved money on several younger impactful assets instead and reopen their window more efficiently and perhaps even exceed Soto's individual WAR.
Soto isn't Aaron Judge, let's be clear. We saw what happened to the Yankees when Judge struggled, and Soto didn't - the Yankees weren't competitive. Judge is the straw that stirs the drink in NY - not Soto.
4. The whole park effects narrative is just lazy media analysis. We know, Soto is a spray hitter with good power - averaging a solid 35 HRs per game - but even his 41 HRs last year don’t reflect exceptional power. He's been the same since I watched him play virtually every game in Washington. So, moving to Citi Field won't hurt that much...yeah, we get it.
But here's what will hurt. He won't have Judge and Stanton around him in the lineup. Alonso might bolt and Lindor is over 30 and isn't enough to protect him. So, it's entirely possible he could revert to San Diego version Soto when Tatis, Jr. wasn't around, and the fans regularly booed him.
In San Diego, pitchers pitched him off the plate and he took a lot of walks that some argued were too many for a guy brought in to drive in runs. Yes, he had a .930 OPS, but it didn't matter - he didn't meet expectations when they traded for him.
His barrel % in NY jumped and he walked less last year compared to San Diego and his career average. That feels like possibly the lineup around him and him seeing better pitches. We'll see.
Thanks again for the enjoyable piece.
Very quick question - no rush. It looks like the Yankees have signed Max Fried and are targeting Kyle Tucker next. Am I correct that If they get Tucker, they will have already exceeded Soto's WAR for last season? This, with still more money left in the tank - perhaps $200MM for a major third FA? Wow. Thanks again.