James Harden May Need to Be the ‘System’ for Clippers to Succeed
Contrary to his inflexible reputation, Harden is adapting to his new teammates. But is that wasting what makes him great?
It’s open season for taking shots at James Harden, whose drama-filled offseason recently ended with a trade from the Philadelphia 76ers to the Los Angeles Clippers — now 0-5 since acquiring him.
“James, you’re not The Beard, you’re not the system — you’re the problem,” said Dallas Mavericks broadcaster Brian Dameris in a viral rant during Friday night’s Clippers-Mavs game (which L.A. lost, 144-126).
Dameris had just finished rattling off the litany of trades Harden orchestrated or was otherwise part of in the past few years, none of which led to the NBA title he has been seeking for 15 seasons now. For many, Harden has come to epitomize the excesses of the league’s player empowerment era (on top of longstanding stylistic complaints about his game), and his early struggles as a Clipper — juxtaposed against the ascent of Tyrese Maxey with the post-Harden Sixers — have brought out the schadenfreude from everyone who wants to see him fail.
But the real cautionary tale of Harden as a Clipper isn’t necessarily that of a star being inflexible and forcing his style on a new team. Instead, it shows the limits of how much you can ask a player like Harden to change his style and accommodate teammates while still maximizing his impact on the game.
When he was first introduced to the press after being traded to the Clippers, Harden (now perhaps infamously) told reporters, “I'm not a system player. I am a system.” And that has generally been true over the course of his career, at least since joining the Houston Rockets from the Oklahoma City Thunder in 2012.
Over that span, Harden has the sixth-highest usage rate in the NBA and the eighth-highest assist rate, meaning the ball tends to constantly be in his hands as either a scorer or setup man. This traditionally leaves little room for other offensive players to do anything except spot up, cut off the ball, roll to the basket or prepare for a rebound, with Harden initiating most of the action. (It’s no coincidence that some of the lowest-usage players in the league have played with Harden, including the notoriously disused P.J. Tucker.)
But despite that reputation, fellow L.A. star Paul George vowed at the time of the trade that Harden would do whatever he needed in order to fit in alongside himself, Kawhi Leonard, Russell Westbrook and the other Clippers who are used to having the ball. And to his credit — sort of — Harden actually has adapted to his new teammates.
His usage rate of 18.6% is easily the lowest of his career, an unheard-of number by Harden standards. His assist rate of 18.5% is the lowest it’s been since Harden was a 21-year-old coming off the bench in Oklahoma City, while his share of plays as a spot-up shooter (24.6%) is roughly double what it was in Philly last season (12.8%) and his share of assisted baskets is up from 25.3% to 33.3%. With Leonard and George enjoying great starts to the season — each has an estimated RAPTOR rating in excess of +4.8 points per 100 possessions — and his old OKC teammate Westbrook adding positive value as well, Harden hasn’t been forcing his usual ball-dominant, iso-heavy brand of basketball on the Clippers so far.
In theory, that might sound like a good thing. And it certainly runs counter to the prevailing notion of Harden as a selfish player who wants everything catered to his desires. But it still might not lead to the Clippers actually winning games. While Harden is making 37.0% of his 3-pointers with a very good .641 True Shooting % as more of an off-ball player this season, any tactics that take the ball out of his hands fundamentally remove many of the things that make him great. When Harden isn’t the primary trigger-man of the offense, his team can’t take full advantage of his greatest skill: his ability to shoulder a huge usage rate while maintaining sky-high individual efficiency. (Like it or not, he is in the same neighborhood as Michael Jordan and Kevin Durant in that regard, historically speaking.)
And while most shooters who accept a reduced offensive role are also tasked with playing tough perimeter defense, Harden has long been a total liability at that end of the floor. In fact, his D might currently be as bad as it’s ever been — this year, the Clippers are allowing a whopping 20.4 more points per 100 possessions with Harden on the court than off.
Because of those limitations, Harden is never going to make as much of an impact playing like anybody other than James Harden. It’s a waste of his skills to ask him to do less of what he’s good at and more of what he’s bad at (or indifferent to).
In this way, the 2023-24 Clippers might be the ultimate exploration of the limits of what star power can bring to a team if the pieces fit together awkwardly. Based on their 2022-23 estimated RAPTOR numbers, Leonard (+6.6), George (+3.7) and Harden (+3.5) aren’t far from the profile of the average NBA championship Top 3 since 1985 — which had ratings of +6.8 for the best player, +4.5 for the second-best player and +2.8 for the third-best player.
Based on a regression using the quality of their Big 3 alone, we’d expect a team like the Clippers to have an 11-12% chance of winning the title. Of course, their actual chances are a lot lower than that because of their mediocre record, poor playoff history, injury-prone stars and questionable roster fit. And sure, the latter problem is just one of the issues facing the Clips as they try desperately to escape the Lakers’ shadow in the Los Angeles basketball market. But it’s the one leading to the most derision right now.
Harden invited much of that when he forced his way off of a third team in a little less than three calendar years, only to start his Clipper career with a whimper, not a bang. But the problem so far isn’t that Harden’s ego is making his new team adapt to his playing style. It’s that there may not be a way to maximize Harden’s talents without letting him be the system, for all the good and bad that will inevitably bring to a team.
Filed under: NBA